thunderman Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 I just noticed this on GRAE as well. If it stays on its current track, it'll be moving just to my east and I can easily get to it. Probably some nice cloud motion with it. Another area north of that one now ... anyone who thinks this is definitely not going to verify in VA is nuts IMO. It may bust, but I don't see it as a "it's definitely going to bust" situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Another area north of that one now ... anyone who thinks this is definitely not going to verify in VA is nuts IMO. It may bust, but I don't see it as a "it's definitely going to bust" situation. Some damaging winds are definitely a possibility, but the tornado threat does look marginal. This isn't a situation where you see widespread tornadoes, but given the amount of shear aloft, there could be a few weak spin-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Some damaging winds are definitely a possibility, but the tornado threat does look marginal. This isn't a situation where you see widespread tornadoes, but given the amount of shear aloft, there could be a few weak spin-ups. Yup. Which is exactly what the 40/20 probs would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Another area north of that one now ... anyone who thinks this is definitely not going to verify in VA is nuts IMO. It may bust, but I don't see it as a "it's definitely going to bust" situation.C Va looks ok. DC area on northern edge maybe tho LWX also over warns so maybe 20 warnings. The sig tor ingredients are useless these days since they messed with how it's created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Tornadoes are like the terrorists of weather. Generally way overhyped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 C Va looks ok. DC area on northern edge maybe tho LWX also over warns so maybe 20 warnings. The sig tor ingredients are useless these days since they messed with how it's created. yeah those things can be deceiving. If that sig tor ingredients product was the only word there would a gazillion high risk days haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 yeah those things can be deceiving. If that sig tor ingredients product was the only word there would a gazillion high risk days haha the product used to be decent. not sure why they changed it to make it so much easier to get the high numbers. granted, the high numbers don't necessarily mean anyting in themselves but it used to be much harder to get them to go to those levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Chase City VA (went with it because of the name but maybe that area down to near Raleigh) looks like an ok spot tomorrow if you don't want o go further south. Tho I'm kinda doubtful there will be much pre squall convection, score! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 get a job, kid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 get a job, kid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 new 30% wind zone matches where the best ingredients are overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 models dont really advect that better stuff into the immediate area but worth watching i suppose. kinda like the late jan event but with more heating and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Looks like a lot of the rotation weakened before it got to my location to where I drove towards Bedford.. Oh well. Got dumped on by the rain, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 models dont really advect that better stuff into the immediate area but worth watching i suppose. kinda like the late jan event but with more heating and such. They didnt bring in anything discrete... they did bring one big line through around 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2013 Author Share Posted April 19, 2013 They didnt bring in anything discrete... they did bring one big line through around 8 Stuff in PA looks good - probably why they also got a TOR watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 something trying to go south of the city but it's getting sheared apart it seems need mo cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Tornado warning near Chase City now. Darn shoulda gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0537 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 130...131... VALID 192036Z - 192230Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 130...131...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND S CNTRL VA WITH DAMAGING WIND AND A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD INTO CNTRL VA POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WHILE SUPERCELLS ACROSS N CNTRL NC ALSO MOVE INTO S CNTRL AND EVENTUALLY SERN VA. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E SURFACE AIR MASS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S F AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S F. LATEST VWP OUT OF RAX AND AKQ BOTH SHOW VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 I am gathering its the LYH storms we should be watching right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Here comes our storms BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 523 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... EASTERN NELSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 600 PM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Tornado warning near Chase City now. Darn shoulda gone. Poss TOG near Clarksville about 30 mins ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Poss TOG near Clarksville about 30 mins agoNice little cell. Vis probably blows. Get rdy for LWX blanket warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Poss TOG near Clarksville about 30 mins ago Numerous reports of major structural damage in that area from a confirmed tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 looks like a few spots of rotation trying to show up on the main line near breaks. one around stephens city at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 looks like a few spots of rotation trying to show up on the main line near breaks. one around stephens city at the moment. Stephens City is about 15 miles south of me so it could be different, but we haven't had a single clap of thunder with this line of "storms". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Looks like these will go just S and E of the city BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 601 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... EASTERN ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 645 PM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Several wind gusts in 60 mph range reported in/around Lynchburg, around 7K reported without power now. Trees and power lines down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Watching SW of EZF... looks like perhaps a lil rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Stephens City is about 15 miles south of me so it could be different, but we haven't had a single clap of thunder with this line of "storms".most of the lightning is south of us in better instability. Prob some gusty winds mainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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