2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

[Ian]

Anyone worried about long track violents tonight?

 

probably paul douglas

 

http://blog.weathernationtv.com/2013/04/18/pds-particularly-dangerous-situation-tornado-watch-midwest-severe-flooding-chicago-area-plowable-snow-twin-cities/

[yoda]

 

TOR WATCH coming shortly... the Force is with me

[thunderman]

nado watch coming ... will it be PDS?!?!?!?!

[yoda]

Tornado Watch by 3?

 

I am good

[Disc]

If I didn't have to work this evening, I would've headed out towards Southside/C VA.

[Ian]

not that surprising given recent days..

[snowfan]

c'mon, a watch is not necessary. This is silly.

[yoda]

c'mon, a watch is not necessary. This is silly.

 

Perhaps, but why is that?

[Ian]

still havent looked much but brief check.. kinda yawn. maybe c va.  cya.

[DDweatherman]

Definitely not seeing it for today guys. I'll write a little something up in a few if time permits. 

[NOVAForecaster]

Cloud deck is breaking somewhat

[mappy]

they issue watches for showers?

[Eskimo Joe]

they issue watches for showers?

Apparently.  Stay vigilant.  

[IsentropicLift]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 130

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

200 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

TORNADO WATCH 130 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC001-003-007-025-035-037-045-051-057-059-063-067-069-071-077-

081-085-093-097-101-105-109-119-123-125-135-145-151-153-155-159-

165-167-179-181-183-185-200100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0130.130419T1800Z-130420T0100Z/

NC

. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON

CABARRUS CATAWBA CHATHAM

CLEVELAND CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON

DAVIE DURHAM FORSYTH

FRANKLIN GASTON GRANVILLE

GUILFORD HARNETT HOKE

IREDELL JOHNSTON LEE

LINCOLN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY

MOORE ORANGE PERSON

RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROBESON

ROWAN SCOTLAND STANLY

UNION VANCE WAKE

WARREN

$$

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 130

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

200 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

TORNADO WATCH 130 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

SCC001-007-021-023-025-031-033-039-041-045-047-055-057-059-061-

067-069-071-083-087-089-091-200100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0130.130419T1800Z-130420T0100Z/

SC

. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ABBEVILLE ANDERSON CHEROKEE

CHESTER CHESTERFIELD DARLINGTON

DILLON FAIRFIELD FLORENCE

GREENVILLE GREENWOOD KERSHAW

LANCASTER LAURENS LEE

MARION MARLBORO NEWBERRY

SPARTANBURG UNION WILLIAMSBURG

YORK

$$

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILM...CAE...RAH...

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 130

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

200 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

TORNADO WATCH 130 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

GAC105-147-200100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0130.130419T1800Z-130420T0100Z/

GA

. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ELBERT HART

[thunderman]

There is some support for it ... not an enormous amount, but some.

[Quincy]

Significant Tornado Ingredient parameter for 5 p.m. this afternoon:

[mappy]

lol we wont be seeing tornadoes

[wxmeddler]

Rotating showers with low LCL's.. We've got the shear, the moisture, the lifting mechanism, just little/no instability.

[Kmlwx]

lol we wont be seeing tornadoes

Maybe one spinup in the area

[IsentropicLift]

12z SPC WRF was quite bullish with storm development a few hours from now

 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z SPC WRF was quite bullish with storm development a few hours from now

 

That won't be happening.

[thunderman]

12z SPC WRF was quite bullish with storm development a few hours from now

 

 

NSSL-WRF

[yoda]

TOR WATCH out until 10 PM... hail to 1 inch winds to 70

[Eskimo Joe]

Red box from Mason-Dixon south:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0131.html

[HM]

 

lol we wont be seeing tornadoes

 

I think you could say that in Oklahoma City on a high risk day / PDS tornado watch and be correct most of the time.

[Quincy]

Tornado Watch graphic:

[yoda]

40/20 in the tor probs in the watch

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS REGION IS

INFLUENCED BY A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING POLEWARD THROUGH THE TN

VALLEY. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...DAYTIME HEATING

COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL

YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN

WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL PROMOTE

ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELL AND LEWP STRUCTURES

CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

[mappy]

Maybe one spinup in the area

 

Oh I do not doubt a few warnings will be issued, but I would be very surprised if anything comes them.

[thunderman]

Along the VA/NC border ... these are the kinds of spin-ups that we will be watching for in Virginia today.

 

[Disc]

Along the VA/NC border ... these are the kinds of spin-ups that we will be watching for in Virginia today.

 

Capture.JPG

 

I just noticed this on GRAE as well. If it stays on its current track, it'll be moving just to my east and I can easily get to it. Probably some nice cloud motion with it.