mappy Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 meh, back to clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 One thing I noted is how fast the clouds are moving from south to north. Strong flow! morning disco talked about how windy it was going to be with such a strong gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 One thing I noted is how fast the clouds are moving from south to north. Strong flow! 50 kt. jet at 1km AGL... pretty swift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Hi-res models are in good agreement with timing of the main line. Mixed bag as to how much pre-frontal convection there is. The 9z run of the HRRR for 8pm today: Before 00z the line looks more ragged but still has its act together by the time it reaches Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 NSSL-WRF has a nice line as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2013 Author Share Posted April 19, 2013 Timing on these lines always seems to be a few hours earlier than the models prog - wouldn't be surprised to see earlier timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Timing on these lines always seems to be a few hours earlier than the models prog - wouldn't be surprised to see earlier timing. 21z to 01z seems like the best time period for anything svr for us today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Timing on these lines always seems to be a few hours earlier than the models prog - wouldn't be surprised to see earlier timing. When that happens the timing is usually from the day before runs. I like to analyze them on a case-by-case basis matching up the current radar to the simulated reflectivity. The HRRR I showed has a decent/good grasp on where the rain is now (EDIT: if not a little faster than reality), so I think the timing of it is fairly solid. I always give anything 6+ hours out a +/- 1 hour buffer zone, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 12z NAM sim radar has what looks to be a squall line/QLCS moving through btwn 7 and 9 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Timing on these lines always seems to be a few hours earlier than the models prog - wouldn't be surprised to see earlier timing. ehh current guidance isn't doing that bad. Looks like it has a good handle on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Would be nice to get a 2 - 4 hour window of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Would be nice to get a 2 - 4 hour window of sun. good luck with that. satellite is cloud heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 good luck with that. satellite is cloud heavy Don't ruin my day please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2013 Author Share Posted April 19, 2013 Don't ruin my day please. He will rain on our parade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 21z at DCA per 12z NAM sounding is decent... instability is meh though Though 00z its around 1000 SBCAPE and MLCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Spc been over warning all week why stop now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Spc been over warning all week why stop now Tornado Watch by 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 PDS Tornado Watch by 3? fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2013 Author Share Posted April 19, 2013 09z SREF over at the SPC site is lol - Mean supercell composite of 12 comes close to DC, sigtor pockets of two on the mean popping up too - good tornado ingredients too - not that it means much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 LWX mentions tor risk in latest AFD as of 11 amIN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...12Z KIAD INDICATED A CAPAROUND 700MB. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS LAYER WILLCOOL BY A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE DIURNAL SURFACEHEATING CONTINUES. BIG VARIABLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD COVERAND ITS INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATEPOTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...AND THESE ARE BEINGOBSERVED IN PARTS OF WV AT THIS HOUR. THIS WOULD ENABLE CAPE TOAPPROACH 1000 J/KG OVER SOME LOCATIONS AT LEAST BRIEFLY. OTHERWISEFORECAST IN ON TRACK FOR INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO SOUTHERLYFLOW AND A VERY STRONG JET OVER THE AREA WITH 50+KT WINDS ABOVE850MB AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC HAS INCREASED SLIGHT RISK AREA TOINCLUDE ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEYEWD...AND HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FORAN ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONTAPPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIALTO TAP INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.HODOGRAPHS ALSO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL TORNADO RISK...ESPECIALLYIF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS DEVELOP WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 You guys expecting a good line of storms? Radar seems to be petering out. What's the thinking on storms and rainfall this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 spinny showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 spinny showers. better or worse than globby flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 About 45 seconds of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2013 Author Share Posted April 19, 2013 About 45 seconds of sunshine. That was probably enough to buy you 2-3 extra units of CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 This wet pattern is doing wonders for my garden. Will be turning the soil over one time more this weekend, then in go the spring crops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Anyone worried about long track violents tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2013 Author Share Posted April 19, 2013 Anyone worried about long track violents tonight? Can't tell if serious lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Anyone worried about long track violents tonight? lolz wut? long track violent farts, maybe??? Taco Friday will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Anyone worried about long track violents tonight? yes ... could be several long track showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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