yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 it go with this one http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2013041000_ref_nmm_east.gif Make it happen #1... I mean Captain Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 1630 OTLK nudged back north... basically along the M/D line, but NE MD and BWI included mainly for damaging wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Cells starting to pop in Ohio. One in central Ohio is warned. Don't think anything meaningful makes it south of the MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 im out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 im out do you sit on a see saw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Friday could be interesting if we get the instability. Poor lapse rates and pre-frontal clouds/showers seem to be consistent run-to-run that would limit the instability. Wind shear looks good for a wind threat, with surface winds from the south, possibly SSE, allowing for a small tornado threat as winds aloft are mostly unidirectional out of the southwest. Later storm/cold front arrival in the evening hours to the I-95 corridor will also work against us getting the max potential out of this system. Definitely something to keep an eye on if we can get better clearing and better instability. A non-severe line/squall with the cold front seems like the best guess at this point in DC/MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 5% for Friday. LWX added small mention to HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 5% for Friday. LWX added small mention to HWO. You thinkin 1-3 for the cities? I'd probably go T-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 You thinkin 1-3 for the cities? I'd probably go T-1 6-12 inches of hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 So what do we think about Friday if we can get some sun in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 I imagine someone on the East Coast will get bumped up to a Slight Risk for tomorrow, with southern VA into the Carolinas probably being the best area WRT the dynamics+instability combo. Lapse rates are kinda meh, plus there's the potential issue of pre-frontal cloud junk, so we'll have to assess things a bit more closely once we get into nowcast mode. Strong winds are the biggest risk as the cold front pushes through, with an outside chance of an embedded tornado. Southern VA might be able to get some pre-frontal convection, but the potential strength of any such storm(s) remains unseen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 So what do we think about Friday if we can get some sun in here? I think we'll probably get some "SUN!" obs if we can get some sun in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 I imagine someone on the East Coast will get bumped up to a Slight Risk for tomorrow, with southern VA into the Carolinas probably being the best area WRT the dynamics+instability combo. Lapse rates are kinda meh, plus there's the potential issue of pre-frontal cloud junk, so we'll have to assess things a bit more closely once we get into nowcast mode. Strong winds are the biggest risk as the cold front pushes through, with an outside chance of an embedded tornado. Southern VA might be able to get some pre-frontal convection, but the potential strength of any such storm(s) remains unseen. congrats: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Chase City VA (went with it because of the name but maybe that area down to near Raleigh) looks like an ok spot tomorrow if you don't want o go further south. Tho I'm kinda doubtful there will be much pre squall convection, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Chase City VA (went with it because of the name but maybe that area down to near Raleigh) looks like an ok spot tomorrow if you don't want o go further south. Tho I'm kinda doubtful there will be much pre squall convection, I'm hoping for a loner pre-frontal cell or two in NC/VA but I'm waiting on making the chase call until tomorrow. Still 50/50 on it :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Feels like an over performer. Atmosphere is ripe says my "gut". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 18, 2013 Author Share Posted April 18, 2013 SPC SREF paints some fun parameters like supercell composite over us tomorrow. Usually doesn't mean much in the end result.Big area where the mean sig tor is 1+ too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2013 Author Share Posted April 19, 2013 Not too shabby of a map - too bad it probably doesn't mean much for us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Looks like 00z NAM sim radar has a squall line moving through just after dinnertime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Not too shabby of a map - too bad it probably doesn't mean much for us lol Nice. I'm not too far from that 45.. Too bad this product was tweaked, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Cloud cover will kill DCs chances today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2013 Author Share Posted April 19, 2013 Cloud cover will kill DCs chances today Likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 There's some clearing out to the west. Hard to determine what cloud cover's effects are going to be this early in the day... wouldn't jump to any conclusions yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Cloud cover will kill DCs chances today Likely. lol s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 SPC doesn't seem to mind the clouds... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_20130419_1300.html DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG LK SUPERIOR UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE ENE INTO SRN ONT THIS EVE AND NEWD INTO WRN QUE EARLY SAT AS SYSTEM DEVOLVES INTO AN OPEN WAVE. ATTENDANT POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH NOW ARCING THROUGH IL TO THE ARKLATEX SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY BY TNGT AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER ERN NEB/SD SWEEPS SE TO NEAR ST LOUIS LATER TODAY...AND THEN TURNS E/NE TO WRN NY/PA EARLY SAT. AT LWR LVLS...ORIGINAL SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LK SUPERIOR UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE SECONDARY CENTER NOW OVER LK HURON FURTHER DEEPENS AND MOVES NNE INTO QUE. COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW FROM THE SECONDARY LOW WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE ERN U.S. TODAY THROUGH THIS EVE. ...SE/MID-ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVE... LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL STATES UPR TROUGH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LAG SFC COLD FRONT AS THAT BOUNDARY ADVANCES STEADILY E ACROSS THE ERN U.S. TODAY/TNGT. NEVERTHELESS...MODEST /30-60 M/ HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AS THE TROUGH ACCELERATES NE TOWARD THE REGION. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN /ESPECIALLY E OF THE APPALACHIANS/... SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE EXISTING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS 600-700 MB CAP IS ERODED FROM W TO E. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK EVEN AFTER ELIMINATION OF CAP. BUT PRESENCE OF STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...DEEP SSWLY FLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LEWPS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED/LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. THE STRONGEST WINDS /WITH 700 MB SPEEDS AOA 60 KTS/ AND THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST OVER UPSTATE NY AND PA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY LIMITED /SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S F/. SOMEWHAT GREATER MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S F/ WILL OVERSPREAD ERN GA...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE DELMARVA REGION IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAKER MEAN FLOW /700 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KTS/. OVERALL...THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND MODEST BUOYANCY FOR A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SVR WEATHER SHOULD EXIST FROM ERN GA AND THE CNTRL CAROLINAS NNE TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT. ..CORFIDI/BOTHWELL.. 04/19/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 starting to lighten up a bit here, still overcast tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 SUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 I'll go with an early meh. possible change to unmeh if we get a couple hours of yellow orb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2013 Author Share Posted April 19, 2013 I had some sun a few minutes ago but it is pretty gloomy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2013 Author Share Posted April 19, 2013 One thing I noted is how fast the clouds are moving from south to north. Strong flow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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