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2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Friday could be interesting if we get the instability. Poor lapse rates and pre-frontal clouds/showers seem to be consistent run-to-run that would limit the instability. Wind shear looks good for a wind threat, with surface winds from the south, possibly SSE, allowing for a small tornado threat as winds aloft are mostly unidirectional out of the southwest. Later storm/cold front arrival in the evening hours to the I-95 corridor will also work against us getting the max potential out of this system.

Definitely something to keep an eye on if we can get better clearing and better instability. A non-severe line/squall with the cold front seems like the best guess at this point in DC/MD.

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

I imagine someone on the East Coast will get bumped up to a Slight Risk for tomorrow, with southern VA into the Carolinas probably being the best area WRT the dynamics+instability combo.

Lapse rates are kinda meh, plus there's the potential issue of pre-frontal cloud junk, so we'll have to assess things a bit more closely once we get into nowcast mode. Strong winds are the biggest risk as the cold front pushes through, with an outside chance of an embedded tornado. Southern VA might be able to get some pre-frontal convection, but the potential strength of any such storm(s) remains unseen.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I imagine someone on the East Coast will get bumped up to a Slight Risk for tomorrow, with southern VA into the Carolinas probably being the best area WRT the dynamics+instability combo.

Lapse rates are kinda meh, plus there's the potential issue of pre-frontal cloud junk, so we'll have to assess things a bit more closely once we get into nowcast mode. Strong winds are the biggest risk as the cold front pushes through, with an outside chance of an embedded tornado. Southern VA might be able to get some pre-frontal convection, but the potential strength of any such storm(s) remains unseen.

congrats: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

post-1615-0-34628700-1366306089_thumb.gi

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Chase City VA (went with it because of the name but maybe that area down to near Raleigh) looks like an ok spot tomorrow if you don't want o go further south. Tho I'm kinda doubtful there will be much pre squall convection,

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Chase City VA (went with it because of the name but maybe that area down to near Raleigh) looks like an ok spot tomorrow if you don't want o go further south. Tho I'm kinda doubtful there will be much pre squall convection,

I'm hoping for a loner pre-frontal cell or two in NC/VA but I'm waiting on making the chase call until tomorrow. Still 50/50 on it :/

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

SPC doesn't seem to mind the clouds...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_20130419_1300.html

day1probotlk_20130419_1300_torn_prt.gif

day1probotlk_20130419_1300_wind_prt.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0729 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND

MID-ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG LK SUPERIOR UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE ENE INTO SRN ONT THIS EVE

AND NEWD INTO WRN QUE EARLY SAT AS SYSTEM DEVOLVES INTO AN OPEN

WAVE. ATTENDANT POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH NOW ARCING THROUGH IL TO THE

ARKLATEX SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY BY TNGT AS

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER ERN NEB/SD SWEEPS SE TO NEAR ST

LOUIS LATER TODAY...AND THEN TURNS E/NE TO WRN NY/PA EARLY SAT.

AT LWR LVLS...ORIGINAL SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LK SUPERIOR UPR LOW

SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE SECONDARY CENTER NOW OVER LK HURON

FURTHER DEEPENS AND MOVES NNE INTO QUE. COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW FROM

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO

POTENTIALLY SVR CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE ERN U.S. TODAY THROUGH

THIS EVE.

...SE/MID-ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVE...

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL STATES UPR

TROUGH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LAG SFC COLD FRONT AS THAT BOUNDARY

ADVANCES STEADILY E ACROSS THE ERN U.S. TODAY/TNGT.

NEVERTHELESS...MODEST /30-60 M/ HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE

MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AS THE TROUGH ACCELERATES NE

TOWARD THE REGION. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION

WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN

/ESPECIALLY E OF THE APPALACHIANS/... SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME

INTENSIFICATION OF THE EXISTING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD

BE EXPECTED AS 600-700 MB CAP IS ERODED FROM W TO E. MID-LVL LAPSE

RATES THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK EVEN AFTER ELIMINATION

OF CAP. BUT PRESENCE OF STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...DEEP SSWLY

FLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF

LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LEWPS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED/LOW-TOPPED

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.

THE STRONGEST WINDS /WITH 700 MB SPEEDS AOA 60 KTS/ AND THE

STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST OVER UPSTATE NY AND

PA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY LIMITED

/SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S F/. SOMEWHAT GREATER MOISTURE /SFC

DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S F/ WILL OVERSPREAD ERN GA...THE

CAROLINAS...AND THE DELMARVA REGION IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAKER MEAN

FLOW /700 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KTS/. OVERALL...THE MOST FAVORABLE

COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND MODEST BUOYANCY FOR A CONDITIONAL

RISK OF SVR WEATHER SHOULD EXIST FROM ERN GA AND THE CNTRL CAROLINAS

NNE TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT.

..CORFIDI/BOTHWELL.. 04/19/2013

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