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2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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wxmeddler

wxmeddler

Posted
Posted

Slight risk with the day 2 outlook for N of the M/D line.

 

day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

 ...IL-NJ...   WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG AND   N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THROUGH PERIOD.  ACTIVITY N OF FRONT WILL   POSE RISK OF OCNL HAIL...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS NEAR FRONT...AND A   TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL   WINDS IN ADJACENT WARM SECTOR KEEPS HODOGRAPH SIZE LIMITED...EXCEPT   IN VERY NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR...THOUGH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR   MAGNITUDES ARE POSSIBLE IN SUPPORT OF TSTM ORGANIZATION.  60S SFC   DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DURING   AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HIGHER IN AREAS OF MOST PERSISTENT INSOLATION.
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Might be able to get something to pop even down here tomorrow. Decent CAPE, lee trough might give it a go.

 

12z and 18z NAM soundings seem to want to suggest anything that goes tomorrow evening might be nice... decent mid-level lapse rates of just over 6.5C/KM and 40 kts or so of shear.  SBCAPE 1000-1500 and MLCAPE near 1000 at KIAD

 

12z GFS was a bit more robust with the mid-level lapse rates at 7.0-7.5C KM and shear still around 40 kts... SBCAPE around 900 and MLCAPE near 1100 for all 3 major airports

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Gusty winds then if it can happen. I don't think it will be much.

 

I don't really either but SREF looks pretty good too. There's like a moisture pool mainly just over our area south of the front. Cloud bases way up there though... not that it matters with temp/dew spreads of 30 and no turning winds. ;)

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

I don't really either but SREF looks pretty good too. There's like a moisture pool mainly just over our area south of the front. Cloud bases way up there though... not that it matters with temp/dew spreads of 30 and no turning winds. ;)

 

Prob will be one of those pulse svr days.... where a storm may pulse up and gain some quick damaging winds gusts to 60 and some hail before coming back down... could see a heavy downpour threat as well as PWATS are rising

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

SLGT risk just north of DCA... mainly in MD and if you border Mason-Dixon Line for 0600 OTLK... 15% hail and wind... 2% TOR for W MD

 

  ...OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE   OH VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST   TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE   LOW ACROSS CNTRL IL...NRN IND...NRN OH INTO PA. SOUTH OF THE   BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM   THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S F. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF   THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SWD ACROSS THE   WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 21Z AT INDIANAPOLIS AND PITTSBURG   SHOW SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO   45 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.   UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE   FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITH SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS THAT CAN   PERSIST. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ELEVATED CELLS NORTH OF THE   BOUNDARY OR WITH CELLS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THAT OBTAIN ROTATION.
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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Meh, garden variety thunderstorms perhaps this afternoon. Don't get your hopes up on a watch or warning.

Haven't seen a real quality puffy cloud in 7 mo. Scaled mehxpectations.
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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

the environment looks great for our area this time of year. im just not sure anything will pop around here. if it does, it could go to town except it's probably going to want to try to kill itself with evaporational cooling and slowish movement. 

 

post-1615-0-14309700-1365603750_thumb.gi

 

post-1615-0-50580000-1365603758_thumb.gi

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
the environment looks great for our area this time of year. im just not sure anything will pop around here. if it does, it could go to town except it's probably going to want to try to kill itself with evaporational cooling and slowish movement.

post-1615-0-14309700-1365603750_thumb.gi

post-1615-0-50580000-1365603758_thumb.gi

I love your optimists and pessimism all wrapped up in one post

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

I'm having a hard time buying into the storm chances around DC. Low moisture and high LCLs will inhibit storm formation and sustainability. Wind shear is okay as far as sustaining storms, but I'd rather be closer to any form of forcing, i.e. something like the stationary front in PA. Some hi-res models blow storms up right over us while others keep all the activity up in PA/NJ, so it's hard to determine what will win out.

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