thunderman Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Looks like mainly a "southern areas" isolated damaging wind threat to me. I am more interested in the locally heavy rain threat, with wind fields supporting the possibility for training storms. Timing will be crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 The NAM is taunting us up here in southern PA on Thursday just south of the stationary front for some popcorn t-storm action. Juicy for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 A little 5% area for the northern areas tomorrow for some pop-up storms: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day2otlk_20130409_0600.html Day 3 is another 5% day for the storms coming in Thursday night/Friday morning: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day3otlk_20130409_0730.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Slight risk with the day 2 outlook for N of the M/D line. ...IL-NJ... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG AND N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THROUGH PERIOD. ACTIVITY N OF FRONT WILL POSE RISK OF OCNL HAIL...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS NEAR FRONT...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN ADJACENT WARM SECTOR KEEPS HODOGRAPH SIZE LIMITED...EXCEPT IN VERY NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR...THOUGH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE POSSIBLE IN SUPPORT OF TSTM ORGANIZATION. 60S SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DURING AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HIGHER IN AREAS OF MOST PERSISTENT INSOLATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Might be able to get something to pop even down here tomorrow. Decent CAPE, lee trough might give it a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Might be able to get something to pop even down here tomorrow. Decent CAPE, lee trough might give it a go. 12z and 18z NAM soundings seem to want to suggest anything that goes tomorrow evening might be nice... decent mid-level lapse rates of just over 6.5C/KM and 40 kts or so of shear. SBCAPE 1000-1500 and MLCAPE near 1000 at KIAD 12z GFS was a bit more robust with the mid-level lapse rates at 7.0-7.5C KM and shear still around 40 kts... SBCAPE around 900 and MLCAPE near 1100 for all 3 major airports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 80s with a 60f dewpoint can get very unstable this time of year. Hoping for a little hail. NAM shows a backdoor front before the main line Saturday, that should knockout any surface based cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Nam still has something around 21z but far from impresive looking. Environment is decent tho except you have downsloping at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Nam still has something around 21z but far from impresive looking. Environment is decent tho except you have downsloping at the sfc. Gusty winds then if it can happen. I don't think it will be much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Gusty winds then if it can happen. I don't think it will be much. I don't really either but SREF looks pretty good too. There's like a moisture pool mainly just over our area south of the front. Cloud bases way up there though... not that it matters with temp/dew spreads of 30 and no turning winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I don't really either but SREF looks pretty good too. There's like a moisture pool mainly just over our area south of the front. Cloud bases way up there though... not that it matters with temp/dew spreads of 30 and no turning winds. Prob will be one of those pulse svr days.... where a storm may pulse up and gain some quick damaging winds gusts to 60 and some hail before coming back down... could see a heavy downpour threat as well as PWATS are rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 SLGT risk just north of DCA... mainly in MD and if you border Mason-Dixon Line for 0600 OTLK... 15% hail and wind... 2% TOR for W MD ...OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL IL...NRN IND...NRN OH INTO PA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S F. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 21Z AT INDIANAPOLIS AND PITTSBURG SHOW SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITH SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS THAT CAN PERSIST. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ELEVATED CELLS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OR WITH CELLS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THAT OBTAIN ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Oh hello.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Imma drift up into northern MD today to test the new equipment in the field... hoping for some structure shots today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I have a 'cu field' overhead. All systems go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 1300z OTLK a bit more robust in the text dept for our "area"... SLGT risk nudged south a smidge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I believe this is an EML look? Or am I incorrect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I brought my camera . It's on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I brought my camera . It's on Prepare to be derechoed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Meh, garden variety thunderstorms perhaps this afternoon. Don't get your hopes up on a watch or warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Good example of an EML sounding.... http://bangladeshtornadoes.org/EML/05170018z_LBF.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Meh, garden variety thunderstorms perhaps this afternoon. Don't get your hopes up on a watch or warning.Haven't seen a real quality puffy cloud in 7 mo. Scaled mehxpectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Good example of an EML sounding.... http://bangladeshtornadoes.org/EML/05170018z_LBF.gif Thanks. I saw ML Lapse rates of 7.5 C/KM... so I assumed that some piece of an EML must be in the area... as we don't usually see ML Lapse rates that high around here unless one is nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 the environment looks great for our area this time of year. im just not sure anything will pop around here. if it does, it could go to town except it's probably going to want to try to kill itself with evaporational cooling and slowish movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 it go with this one http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2013041000_ref_nmm_east.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 the environment looks great for our area this time of year. im just not sure anything will pop around here. if it does, it could go to town except it's probably going to want to try to kill itself with evaporational cooling and slowish movement. I love your optimists and pessimism all wrapped up in one post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 LWX mentioning ACC clouds on FB although their picture from the office looks a little "meh" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I'm having a hard time buying into the storm chances around DC. Low moisture and high LCLs will inhibit storm formation and sustainability. Wind shear is okay as far as sustaining storms, but I'd rather be closer to any form of forcing, i.e. something like the stationary front in PA. Some hi-res models blow storms up right over us while others keep all the activity up in PA/NJ, so it's hard to determine what will win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I love your optimists and pessimism all wrapped up in one post Trigger still a bit iffy around here tho you might have better odds with stuff dropping from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Trigger still a bit iffy around here tho you might have better odds with stuff dropping from the NW. Sweet, I'll be watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.