Amped Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 80s with a 60f dewpoint can get very unstable this time of year. Hoping for a little hail. NAM shows a backdoor front before the main line Saturday, that should knockout any surface based cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Nam still has something around 21z but far from impresive looking. Environment is decent tho except you have downsloping at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Nam still has something around 21z but far from impresive looking. Environment is decent tho except you have downsloping at the sfc. Gusty winds then if it can happen. I don't think it will be much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Gusty winds then if it can happen. I don't think it will be much. I don't really either but SREF looks pretty good too. There's like a moisture pool mainly just over our area south of the front. Cloud bases way up there though... not that it matters with temp/dew spreads of 30 and no turning winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I don't really either but SREF looks pretty good too. There's like a moisture pool mainly just over our area south of the front. Cloud bases way up there though... not that it matters with temp/dew spreads of 30 and no turning winds. Prob will be one of those pulse svr days.... where a storm may pulse up and gain some quick damaging winds gusts to 60 and some hail before coming back down... could see a heavy downpour threat as well as PWATS are rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 SLGT risk just north of DCA... mainly in MD and if you border Mason-Dixon Line for 0600 OTLK... 15% hail and wind... 2% TOR for W MD ...OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL IL...NRN IND...NRN OH INTO PA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S F. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 21Z AT INDIANAPOLIS AND PITTSBURG SHOW SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITH SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS THAT CAN PERSIST. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ELEVATED CELLS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OR WITH CELLS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THAT OBTAIN ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Oh hello.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Imma drift up into northern MD today to test the new equipment in the field... hoping for some structure shots today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I have a 'cu field' overhead. All systems go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 1300z OTLK a bit more robust in the text dept for our "area"... SLGT risk nudged south a smidge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I believe this is an EML look? Or am I incorrect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I brought my camera . It's on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I brought my camera . It's on Prepare to be derechoed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Meh, garden variety thunderstorms perhaps this afternoon. Don't get your hopes up on a watch or warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Good example of an EML sounding.... http://bangladeshtornadoes.org/EML/05170018z_LBF.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Meh, garden variety thunderstorms perhaps this afternoon. Don't get your hopes up on a watch or warning.Haven't seen a real quality puffy cloud in 7 mo. Scaled mehxpectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Good example of an EML sounding.... http://bangladeshtornadoes.org/EML/05170018z_LBF.gif Thanks. I saw ML Lapse rates of 7.5 C/KM... so I assumed that some piece of an EML must be in the area... as we don't usually see ML Lapse rates that high around here unless one is nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 the environment looks great for our area this time of year. im just not sure anything will pop around here. if it does, it could go to town except it's probably going to want to try to kill itself with evaporational cooling and slowish movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 it go with this one http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2013041000_ref_nmm_east.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 the environment looks great for our area this time of year. im just not sure anything will pop around here. if it does, it could go to town except it's probably going to want to try to kill itself with evaporational cooling and slowish movement. I love your optimists and pessimism all wrapped up in one post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 LWX mentioning ACC clouds on FB although their picture from the office looks a little "meh" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I'm having a hard time buying into the storm chances around DC. Low moisture and high LCLs will inhibit storm formation and sustainability. Wind shear is okay as far as sustaining storms, but I'd rather be closer to any form of forcing, i.e. something like the stationary front in PA. Some hi-res models blow storms up right over us while others keep all the activity up in PA/NJ, so it's hard to determine what will win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I love your optimists and pessimism all wrapped up in one post Trigger still a bit iffy around here tho you might have better odds with stuff dropping from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Trigger still a bit iffy around here tho you might have better odds with stuff dropping from the NW. Sweet, I'll be watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 it go with this one http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2013041000_ref_nmm_east.gif Make it happen #1... I mean Captain Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 1630 OTLK nudged back north... basically along the M/D line, but NE MD and BWI included mainly for damaging wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Cells starting to pop in Ohio. One in central Ohio is warned. Don't think anything meaningful makes it south of the MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 im out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 im out do you sit on a see saw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Friday could be interesting if we get the instability. Poor lapse rates and pre-frontal clouds/showers seem to be consistent run-to-run that would limit the instability. Wind shear looks good for a wind threat, with surface winds from the south, possibly SSE, allowing for a small tornado threat as winds aloft are mostly unidirectional out of the southwest. Later storm/cold front arrival in the evening hours to the I-95 corridor will also work against us getting the max potential out of this system. Definitely something to keep an eye on if we can get better clearing and better instability. A non-severe line/squall with the cold front seems like the best guess at this point in DC/MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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