Ian Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Timmer and co are doing "Storm Chasing School" http://tvnweather.com/podcasts/live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Timmer and co are doing "Storm Chasing School" http://tvnweather.com/podcasts/live The podcast has actually been fairly informative so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 The podcast has actually been fairly informative so far. yeah there's a lot of banter in the middle but some good parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Does a below normal spring wrt temps help/hurt/make no difference as to the severe season? I would think the presence of so much cold air would create an environment that would benefit severe weather, but I don't know very much about it. So ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 if we were snow weenies and looked at d10+ potential... gfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif OK, explain that. Is it just the clashing air masses that make that an appealing setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Does a below normal spring wrt temps help/hurt/make no difference as to the severe season? I would think the presence of so much cold air would create an environment that would benefit severe weather, but I don't know very much about it. So ......... hard to say. i think ultimately it can help tho it's undoubtedly hurting so far. last year the svr weather season in much of the country was abridged because of the quick warm up in the spring.. so we had a lot of activity already at this point then it shut off for the most part after mid-April. my guess for now is that April will have a big outbreak or two across the south/midwest etc. the Plains will also probably have a better year than last year... tho those are pretty much WAGs. one concern is that we flip from cold back to a pattern dominated by the drought which could in theory totally fook over the season. but usually having the cold air and good snowpack to the north is helpful overall... around here... prob harder to guess. we tend to get storms every year to some degree no matter what, usually not terribly severe. the drought can help give us those ingredients needed for a big event like the derecho.. just have to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 OK, explain that. Is it just the clashing air masses that make that an appealing setup? a low pushing into the lakes is usually decent for the proper turning with height needed for tornado potential. anything that cuts west really if it's strong enough.. plus there is just the fact that you pump dew points to near 60 then hit them with a cold front so you get convection with it. the profile is OK but not that good. it's early season so there is no cape barely. plus subsequent runs lost it mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 a low pushing into the lakes is usually decent for the proper turning with height needed for tornado potential. anything that cuts west really if it's strong enough.. plus there is just the fact that you pump dew points to near 60 then hit them with a cold front so you get convection with it. the profile is OK but not that good. it's early season so there is no cape barely. plus subsequent runs lost it mostly. Lows over the Lakes help pull in more southern air, but it's a bit of a give/take around here. The farther north the low is, the less tornado potential we have as surface winds are typically more out of the SW/WSW versus the S/SSE that we want. Also, without the low close by, we usually don't get as good of lapse rates as the upper-level trough and accompanying cooler temps aloft stay to our north as well. When we want a good tornado setup, I typically look for something similar to the D+10 you posted but also has a good vort max. to the south of it that triggers a secondary low development along the cold front. Our region really needs that secondary low to form up over the mountains or just west of us to help back the winds locally, giving us a more southerly or even easterly component. This was a key factor in the June 1 outbreak last year. The thing that held back the instability last year was the late intensification of the primary low over the OH Valley, which didn't have enough time to lift the warm front northward and allow skies to clear before the storm development. (Though one could argue that we needed the warm front for more backing at the surface) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 I just went back to the June 1, 2012 reports and found this... anyone besides the NWS see this video? 1837 3 NW COUNTRYSIDE MONTGOMERY MD 3908 7745 VERY BRIEF EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED BY VIDEO. (LWX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Yeah, true on the secondary. I actually mentioned that then deleted it for some reason. I'm not sure it's necessary but it helps. April 2011 didn't have one. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2011/us0427.php But college park did at least to some degree: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2001/us0924.php La Plata doesn't appear to: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us0428.php They all had solid 500 energy passing in or near the Lakes. Verbatim that 18z 'threat' is pretty lame given the jet but it was still something for so early even if it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Aren't storms from waa in front of ohv lows tpyically benign overall? Not always of course but usually? I've never been that impressed with bands of storms on sw flow like unless they train and dump lots of water. Winds are usually so-so and lightning isn't very intense either. I know there can be shear and rotation but never seems all that exciting. But I'm a no nothing noob so I may know nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Later on in late Spring/Summer when instability is plentiful, more westerly to west-northwesterly flow aloft events tend to do well in this region. One example is the August 6th, 1993 tornado outbreak in Virginia. Another would be the June 23rd, 1944 event in WV (Shinnston tornado). A good example of the former, more classic setup that Ellinwood describes is the May 2nd, 1929 event (Rye Cove, VA tornado) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 I just went back to the June 1, 2012 reports and found this... anyone besides the NWS see this video? 1837 3 NW COUNTRYSIDE MONTGOMERY MD 3908 7745 VERY BRIEF EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED BY VIDEO. (LWX) this was one of them but im not sure if it's the same one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 actually, think this is the one in question based on the details on lwx site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Aren't storms from waa in front of ohv lows tpyically benign overall? Not always of course but usually? I've never been that impressed with bands of storms on sw flow like unless they train and dump lots of water. Winds are usually so-so and lightning isn't very intense either. I know there can be shear and rotation but never seems all that exciting. But I'm a no nothing noob so I may know nothing. probably.. you'd be looking more at the warm sector/sfc trough/cold front passage in that type of situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Yeah, true on the secondary. I actually mentioned that then deleted it for some reason. I'm not sure it's necessary but it helps. April 2011 didn't have one. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2011/us0427.php But college park did at least to some degree: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2001/us0924.php La Plata doesn't appear to: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us0428.php They all had solid 500 energy passing in or near the Lakes. Verbatim that 18z 'threat' is pretty lame given the jet but it was still something for so early even if it's gone. Agreed that a secondary isn't necessary, but it can be and often is a huge boost in the potential if it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 this blew up and probably because it's really good so while contemplating our next gusty shower threat: Looking back at the April 3-4, 1974 Super Outbreak http://www.ustornadoes.com/2013/04/03/looking-back-at-the-april-3-4-1974-super-outbreak/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Later on in late Spring/Summer when instability is plentiful, more westerly to west-northwesterly flow aloft events tend to do well in this region. One example is the August 6th, 1993 tornado outbreak in Virginia. Another would be the June 23rd, 1944 event in WV (Shinnston tornado). A good example of the former, more classic setup that Ellinwood describes is the May 2nd, 1929 event (Rye Cove, VA tornado) I'm amazed that anyone on this board would know about the Rye Cove tornado. I grew up hearing about that tornado. They are pretty rare that far west in Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 I don't really think we'll see anything this week but we might.. thunder at least seems a better chance. GFS pulls 60+ dp well north.. forcing lags a bit though. Far enough out it might be able to shift more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Ian...anything doing in the southern Mississippi Valley this coming week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 I don't really think we'll see anything this week but we might.. thunder at least seems a better chance. GFS pulls 60+ dp well north.. forcing lags a bit though. Far enough out it might be able to shift more interesting. If things are looking stormy and the timing's right either here or south in VA/NC I'll be chasing. Not getting my hopes up for it, but I'll be ready for it if the threat materializes. This time of year a trip to NC seems most likely out of any location in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 00z Euro Op has a well-defined secondary low forming over the southern Appalachians on Friday, which is timed right to give southern VA and the Carolinas severe potential. The Euro Ensemble supports this to a degree (more so for timing, with support for the secondary low kind of there but gets washed out in the mean). The GFS maintains a more progressive system with little to no sign of a secondary low, which enhances the possibility for a line of storms along the cold front further north into DC/MD. However, the GFS Ensemble is bad on the timing, bringing the front through Thursday night instead of during the day Friday. Of note is the 06z GFS Op does develop the secondary low, but is still too fast to do much with it in our region. In other words, typical April climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 7, 2013 Author Share Posted April 7, 2013 DT was honking severe potential for us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Looking like some real potential here in the ArkLaTex in the middle of the week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Looks like mainly a "southern areas" isolated damaging wind threat to me. I am more interested in the locally heavy rain threat, with wind fields supporting the possibility for training storms. Timing will be crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 The NAM is taunting us up here in southern PA on Thursday just south of the stationary front for some popcorn t-storm action. Juicy for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 A little 5% area for the northern areas tomorrow for some pop-up storms: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day2otlk_20130409_0600.html Day 3 is another 5% day for the storms coming in Thursday night/Friday morning: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day3otlk_20130409_0730.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Slight risk with the day 2 outlook for N of the M/D line. ...IL-NJ... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG AND N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THROUGH PERIOD. ACTIVITY N OF FRONT WILL POSE RISK OF OCNL HAIL...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS NEAR FRONT...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN ADJACENT WARM SECTOR KEEPS HODOGRAPH SIZE LIMITED...EXCEPT IN VERY NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR...THOUGH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE POSSIBLE IN SUPPORT OF TSTM ORGANIZATION. 60S SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DURING AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HIGHER IN AREAS OF MOST PERSISTENT INSOLATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Might be able to get something to pop even down here tomorrow. Decent CAPE, lee trough might give it a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Might be able to get something to pop even down here tomorrow. Decent CAPE, lee trough might give it a go. 12z and 18z NAM soundings seem to want to suggest anything that goes tomorrow evening might be nice... decent mid-level lapse rates of just over 6.5C/KM and 40 kts or so of shear. SBCAPE 1000-1500 and MLCAPE near 1000 at KIAD 12z GFS was a bit more robust with the mid-level lapse rates at 7.0-7.5C KM and shear still around 40 kts... SBCAPE around 900 and MLCAPE near 1100 for all 3 major airports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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