Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 That new SPC site is pretty awesome though. Just looking through the distributions (which you can break down by cold season, QLCS, etc)... how things differ by region etc. Can get lost in there for a while I'm sure. Should be helpful for forecasting too with the easily identifiable benchmarks. Yeah I had to stop myself the other day when I was looking around on it. I almost made myself late for a class. I've always liked the NCDC storm database too - good starting point if you are trying to find storms in a specific jurisdiction. Can't wait for a morning when people are going ape**** over the 12z LWX sounding. Then nothing will happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Nice Ian... thanks for those. This would be a frightening scenario if it were to repeat -- http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/19790905.51.7 EF3 crosses the Beltway twice... at rush hour I have to assume that is just peak intensity. I'm sure the EF3 intensity was fairly short lived. Wasn't the EF4 in La Plata like pretty much just a few blocks in town? (not downplaying that incident) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Looking at the link Yoda posted above I was surprised to see we've had two EF2's in Roanoke I didn't even know about. (One in 1974. Other in 1953) A big myth I hear around here is "we're surrounded by mountains, we don't get tornadoes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I have to assume that is just peak intensity. I'm sure the EF3 intensity was fairly short lived. Wasn't the EF4 in La Plata like pretty much just a few blocks in town? (not downplaying that incident) Probably, the link doesnt specify. But even if that was so, a tornado crossing the Beltway regardless of its EF strength would be a dangerous proposition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Most tornadoes are only briefly at their highest rating tho they are databased under their highest ranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I've always liked thunderstorms - as kids, we used to sit on our west-facing porch under our aluminum awning and watch as big boomers rolled in. And I think I like them as much, if not more, now. I've never really looked forward to severe season around here, but for some reason I am looking forward to it this year. I don't know if I like the storms themselves or just the idea that we're moving out of such a miserable time of year and into the growing and outdoor activity season. Hopefully I can learn a little more about severe this year, because I frankly have no clue about the meteorology behind it! As for hail...screw it. Larger hail would mangle my garden, so someone else can have it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Will be in the south this upcoming week.....Arkansas and Mississippi. Looking forward to some storms that SPC is already discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 First threat of the season already.. Looks to be mainly a high wind event. VALID 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE THAT A POWERFUL AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE RAPID PROGRESS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH LATE D4/WEDNESDAY. A MID LEVEL WIND MAX IN EXCESS OF 100KT IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COINCIDENT WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A PLUME OF AT LEAST 1.5 INCH PW VALUES EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS PHL AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. QPF AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM LATEST EC AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION AND/OR RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE FRONT AMIDST INTENSE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR. WHILE CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE RISK AREA WILL REMAIN LOW...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING TO BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Saw that... I dunno if we will see severe up here with low instability... but gusty winds is a good bet. QLCS maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Yeah I was wondering the same thing.. I'd say there's a better chance out towards C VA and towards the coast. I usually get skipped by squall line/QLCS type stuff because of the mountains and I especially do in low instability events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 Wow - maybe we can get some early year excitement. Guess I will be wrong about my call lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Hmm. Doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Hmm. Doubtful. So there is a chance... no meh I doubt it too, but LWX has thunder for I-95 in its zones, and taking a peek at the Skew-Ts shows 60 kts in the 850 level... so if they can get tapped into... perhaps a token STW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 A widespread strong to severe wind event appears to be unfolding over the eastern half of the U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday, with isolated tornadoes also a threat, which is mostly across parts of the Southeast. The Mid-Atlantic has some opportunity for both on Wednesday, with the main threat obviously being a line of strong to severe winds. We will be battling marginal lapse rates and pre-frontal clouds/rain, as we normally do in these early year setups. Very strong winds aloft (50-60 kt jet at 925mb!) suggests any sort of convection will bring down strong to severe level winds. With the strong forcing associated with the cold front, I don't see much of a problem getting those winds to the surface. The only issue would be if a stable layer at the surface can linger ahead of the front, but that appears to be just a minor problem as the lift from the front should overcome the stable layer (if there is indeed a stable layer). With dewpoints climbing into the lower 60s ahead of the front, we should be able to see a fairly strong frontal passage with widespread strong to severe winds. The main thing I'm watching now is the potential of a secondary low formation, which the NAM has (though that can't be relied upon at this point). The Euro also develops a secondary low, but it comes later and further north than the NAM. If this secondary low develops before the front comes through, and if it's far enough south, it will be able to back the winds more at the surface and would provide a greater risk for tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Omg ellinweenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Ellinwood SRH was kinda ridiculous... 500+ m2/s2... so we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 Omg ellinweenie Let it be known that MY thread got Mark to come post in the Mid-Atl. Severe weenies unite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Only trouble with backing the winds with the low developing farther to the south is it inch increase the chances of a stable layer messing things up to the north of that low. Heck, the Nam already has the surface RH near 100 percent on Wednesday which opens the possibility of fog messing things up for us here in the DC area though I'm not sure that would stop gusts from reaching the ground. I do think it would hurt our chances of getting tornadoes due to stability issues but you're more a severe weather guy than I am. There certainly will be strong dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 Only trouble with backing the winds with the low developing farther to the south is it inch increase the chances of a stable layer messing things up to the north of that low. Heck, the Nam already has the surface RH near 100 percent on Wednesday which opens the possibility of fog messing things up for us here in the DC area though I'm not sure that would stop gusts from reaching the ground. I do think it would hurt our chances of getting tornadoes due to stability issues but you're more a severe weather guy than I am. There certainly will be strong dynamics. I'll go ahead and guess we get a really gusty line of showers and storms - I will remain pessimistic on the tornado threat until we have a 5% tor risk on that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 On the face of it, looks moderately interesting tho climo very strongly argues against anything of note. I'll count thunder as a win.. tho there could be some winds mixing down in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I said I'd come back when the severe weather does Still not touching the snow threads, though. Only trouble with backing the winds with the low developing farther to the south is it inch increase the chances of a stable layer messing things up to the north of that low. Heck, the Nam already has the surface RH near 100 percent on Wednesday which opens the possibility of fog messing things up for us here in the DC area though I'm not sure that would stop gusts from reaching the ground. I do think it would hurt our chances of getting tornadoes due to stability issues but you're more a severe weather guy than I am. There certainly will be strong dynamics. I agree RE: the risks with bringing the secondary low into the equation. At the moment, I have to mostly disregard the NAM solution and count it as a risk rather than anything substantial. The main thing to watch will be a squall line along the front, which should have a ton of lift and should be able to overcome a weak to even moderate strength stable layer. I don't think tornadoes will be in play across the Mid-Atlantic, but it could be a threat in far southern VA into the Carolinas IF better instability can work in. While not as much of a risk, there could be timing issues for the eastern areas if the slower solutions verify (making it a more evening/overnight event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 He's back! Knew it when this severe thread started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I said I'd come back when the severe weather does Still not touching the snow threads, though.only a few weeks till the snow weenies go into hibernation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Lol...i think we get about the same amount of thunderstorms as we do snowstorms each year....you guys are cute tracking your drizzle wind storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Yay tornado talk! And Mark is alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Ellinwood SRH was kinda ridiculous... 500+ m2/s2... so we shall see Yeah...this is better than a snow weenie post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I'll go ahead and guess we get a really gusty line of showers and storms - I will remain pessimistic on the tornado threat until we have a 5% tor risk on that morning. Marginally better than a snow weenie post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 lwg causing trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 A widespread strong to severe wind event appears to be unfolding over the eastern half of the U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday, with isolated tornadoes also a threat, which is mostly across parts of the Southeast. The Mid-Atlantic has some opportunity for both on Wednesday, with the main threat obviously being a line of strong to severe winds. We will be battling marginal lapse rates and pre-frontal clouds/rain, as we normally do in these early year setups. Very strong winds aloft (50-60 kt jet at 925mb!) suggests any sort of convection will bring down strong to severe level winds. With the strong forcing associated with the cold front, I don't see much of a problem getting those winds to the surface. The only issue would be if a stable layer at the surface can linger ahead of the front, but that appears to be just a minor problem as the lift from the front should overcome the stable layer (if there is indeed a stable layer). With dewpoints climbing into the lower 60s ahead of the front, we should be able to see a fairly strong frontal passage with widespread strong to severe winds. The main thing I'm watching now is the potential of a secondary low formation, which the NAM has (though that can't be relied upon at this point). The Euro also develops a secondary low, but it comes later and further north than the NAM. If this secondary low develops before the front comes through, and if it's far enough south, it will be able to back the winds more at the surface and would provide a greater risk for tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic. 20130127_GFSdewpoints.png 20130127_GFSwinds925mb.png lol...shows up out of nowhere after boycotting the forum all winter only to bust badly...welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I'm no fan of torches, but I've gotta admit, seing a springlike thunderstorm in January would be pretty interesting. I'm all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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