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2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

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This is pretty informative stuff. I liked the little piece where he compared the two soundings a few minutes ago - one with inhibition the other without...I think a lot of the less informed weenies (such as myself) buy too much into the CAPE numbers alone. 

Another good website for those who can't keep up or want to review later 

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/

I did a lot of stuff on there a few years back...I should really go back and refresh myself. I kind of fell off the learning bandwagon when I changed my major the criminology/criminal justice. Need to get back in touch with my weather side. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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This is pretty informative stuff. I liked the little piece where he compared the two soundings a few minutes ago - one with inhibition the other without...I think a lot of the less informed weenies (such as myself) buy too much into the CAPE numbers alone.

Another good website for those who can't keep up or want to review later

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/

I did a lot of stuff on there a few years back...I should really go back and refresh myself. I kind of fell off the learning bandwagon when I changed my major the criminology/criminal justice. Need to get back in touch with my weather side.

You can specialize in crim defense for people who loot after hurricanes and tornadoes.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

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You can specialize in crim defense for people who loot after hurricanes and tornadoes.

 

Somebody actually pressured me to be a forensic meteorologist.

I can't decide if it's easier for us in DC to get snow or severe...but given the last few years I'm going to go with severe. It doesn't mean a derecho but we get plenty more days of severe reports at least SOMEWHERE in the DC/MD/VA region than we get snow days IMO. Plus...big damaging wind events seem to be on a bit of an uptick (or maybe I'm imagining things). June 2008 and June 2012 were pretty sick around here. More locally that July storm a few years ago. We've had some good storms recently. 

Then again...I'm always the first person to recall that when I was a young person in the 90s I remember far more lines of storms that weren't necessarily severe but they were really nice storms. We have transitioned to more popcorn and isolated-scattered storms in the last decade it seems. I don't know if anybody has found a cause for this yet. 

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Ian

Ian

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With the pattern so Nina'y and much more cold air potential than last year I think the odds of an active next few months are pretty good. Not necessarily up here but possibly. There are some hints of 2011 in there.. maybe a big Carolina event?

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

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Any guesses on possible severe in March?

Definitely not a good start. -NAO/-AO is killing the flow and shows no sign of going positive through the next two weeks. The +PNA spike we're going over the next 10-15 days won't help, either. If the MJO can stay amplified and go into phases 6-7 we might be able to kick up a ridge over the Southeast, but right now the other signals are dominating the pattern. The second half of March will pose more chances for severe if/when the -NAO relaxes or even goes positive. For now, I don't see anything notable on the horizon.

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andyhb

andyhb

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Definitely not a good start. -NAO/-AO is killing the flow and shows no sign of going positive through the next two weeks. The +PNA spike we're going over the next 10-15 days won't help, either. If the MJO can stay amplified and go into phases 6-7 we might be able to kick up a ridge over the Southeast, but right now the other signals are dominating the pattern. The second half of March will pose more chances for severe if/when the -NAO relaxes or even goes positive. For now, I don't see anything notable on the horizon.

 

Yeah, I was just looking at this.

 

Checking the teleconnections on CPC's website, there appears to be a consensus towards a spike (potentially a large one) in the AO following this deep drop over the next ~10 days. In addition, as you mentioned, the NAO is trending gradually towards neutral/positive and there also appears to be a suggestion of the PNA eventually dropping off as well.

 

pnasprd2z.gif

aosprd2c.gif

naosprd2.gif

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Ian

Ian

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Arc 10 or 10.1?

http://www.qgis.org/

 

I've been meaning to pick it up to try to learn but never heard of a good free program (or just didn't really inquire).. Kathryn from CWG noted it to me, so randomly downloaded it last night. I don't really know what I'm doing .. have enough background to sorta trial and error my way thru things with Google help. Seems pretty solid as a program though so far.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Gasp...don't use made up terms in this thread. WE ARE LEARNED DOCTORS HERE.

In all seriousness though...I could go for some nice severe soon. I'm itching for it...

You'll be dreading severe after I beat you and ian up beyond recognition trying to learn this year. You've been warned and I might get 5 posted.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

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You'll be dreading severe after I beat you and ian up beyond recognition trying to learn this year. You've been warned and I might get 5 posted.

 

I barely know anything myself. I just ramble when I see a risk area pop up, copy mesoscale discussions from SPC onto the forum and then when we fail I whine just like most whine for lack of snow. You will probably know more than me in no time! I just have not put the time into a lot of analysis learning ever. I probably should. 

All I know is that if I see lots of CAPE and shear on a sounding, we might be in for some fun...or not because we suck at everything except heat. 

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Disc

Disc

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Gasp...don't use made up terms in this thread. WE ARE LEARNED DOCTORS HERE. 

In all seriousness though...I could go for some nice severe soon. I'm itching for it...

 

I'm right there with you. A good outbreak somewhere else so I can armchair chase would help too.  :D

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