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2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion


Kmlwx

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From what I can tell my local station had about 2.81" of rain....very impressive totals for back here. Goose creek is a mess and is expected to crest at 17.1' and 12' is flood stage. Rt 15 is sure to be closed... I got caught down there during Sandy...pretty frightening scene with the water that high

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congrats on your bust

Ian, did you apologize yet? ;)

Not a major severe weather outbreak in DC but definitely what I was expecting. Very strong winds and rain woke me up several times last night, power outages, flooding rains, tornado watch, severe t-storm warnings, hence the "main event" like I said. Granted the highest gust in DC was close to 40 but still we had some impressive lines roll through overnight with rain and wind. But to your credit you're right they weren't all 'severe' necessarily.

I wasn't trying to say models are never wrong yesterday but with such strong winds aloft and every model showing a strong line of storms moving through at night, you can't just ignore it because it rained earlier in the day. Moving on to winter now :)

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Only .7 inches of rain here in southern Delaware.  We are often the dry spot.  The wind blew the plastic off my little tunnel house that I grow winter salad greens in.  It was tightly clamp on but if the wind can get under it, it will work loose.  Thankfully it was wrapped around the fence and didn't blow away.

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Ian, did you apologize yet? ;)

Not a major severe weather outbreak in DC but definitely what I was expecting. Very strong winds and rain woke me up several times last night, power outages, flooding rains, tornado watch, severe t-storm warnings, hence the "main event" like I said. Granted the highest gust in DC was close to 40 but still we had some impressive lines roll through overnight with rain and wind. But to your credit you're right they weren't all 'severe' necessarily.

I wasn't trying to say models are never wrong yesterday but with such strong winds aloft and every model showing a strong line of storms moving through at night, you can't just ignore it because it rained earlier in the day. Moving on to winter now :)

Where were the big storms? Getting a failed tor watch and svr warning we didn't need doesn't mean much. I didn't say it wasn't going to rain overnight. Good luck with your winter lol.
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Was there any lightning?  tornadoes?  I think most of us expected high winds.  I'm not sure the event deserved a widespread tornado watch   Were' there any gusts reported that supported severe? Lots of rain does not equate with severe.  I don't see any tree damage around here. 

The initial band tricked me a bit. I thought it would roll in more than it did.. but otherwise the event was pretty much as I thought it would be... other than rain overperfoming. I did sorta apologize for being a jerk earlier in the thread.. but I tend to be a jerk sometimes.
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The initial band tricked me a bit. I thought it would roll in more than it did.. but otherwise the event was pretty much as I thought it would be... other than rain overperfoming. I did sorta apologize for being a jerk earlier in the thread.. but I tend to be a jerk sometimes.

 

I suspect that I'll made people mad later today when I post my next article unless the GFS surprises me. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

moving from other thread..

Another streak. Luv me some lame a** s*****y streaks.

How do you analyze severe? I need to know in 45 days.

often want a nice 500 vort/low to pass to w/ nw.. up thru eastern lakes. sfc feature thru wv/even up the eastern spine of the apps, etc. probably more important early season and for tor. in summer--decent winds aloft plus a good lee trough will do it. if the drought takes over again i think we'll probably end up somewhere on or near the ring of fire like we were last year. the continued interest of stuff going to our northwest also might mean we can stay in more active times. but who knows maybe we'll flip to all coastals as we hit april.

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the 18z gfs has sort of a hint of something in la la land. there has seemed to be some hints of spring in the lr but the winter single still dominates. SE VA into Carolinas maybe.

post-1615-0-59695600-1361068176_thumb.gi

post-1615-0-22961400-1361068181_thumb.pn

Near RIC right on the nose of 60F dews

post-1615-0-73739400-1361068185_thumb.pn

lol -- if only we did what snow weenies did and looked at 264 often.

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