2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

[WVclimo]

This is going to put me above normal precip for January.

[Ellinwood]

We got recovery at Dulles:

 

KIAD 302252Z COR 18014G21KT 10SM BKN025 OVC032 20/16 A2952 RMK AO2 DZE11 PRESFR SLP995 P0000 T02000161

[wxmeddler]

New T-Storm Warning for Southern Faquier, Orange, Culpepper.. that area.

[Kmlwx]

Unless it can keep expanding a bit north I think it'll slide just south of me. DCA looks okay. 

[Ian]

hmm may have to go into hiding

[Ellinwood]

DC could catch the northern end of this... more iffy for me in Gaithersburg.

 

[aldie 22]

My hood got a lot of rain it seems

[ThePhotoGuy]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

TORNADO WATCH 24 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC003-005-009-013-017-025-027-031-033-037-510-310700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.130130T2330Z-130131T0700Z/

MD
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL         BALTIMORE           CALVERT
CARROLL              CHARLES             HARFORD
HOWARD               MONTGOMERY          PRINCE GEORGES
ST. MARYS


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY
$$

 

[Solo2]

Lots and lots of rain already....

[Ian]

oof

[wxdude64]

hmm may have to go into hiding

That is ok, happens to the best of us!

[Ian]

That is ok, happens to the best of us!

i always "bust" when im a jerk.. someday ill learn

[Kmlwx]

Ummm...tor watch...ok then. 

[Kmlwx]

Interesting radar pic - what's up with the little "wave" storms north of the main line? Kind of cool looking. 

EDIT: I wonder if the earlier line may have put down some boundaries that this line will use for spin. There is some rotation evident in the velocity scans. 

[Subtropics]

Unexpected? What is SPC seeing that we aren't?

[Ian]

Unexpected? What is SPC seeing that we aren't?

it's a bit sketchy but the wind profile is nice

[Ellinwood]

 

 

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)

 

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)

 

Hail

 

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)

 

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)

 

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

 

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)

[clueless]

Rain. Some wind. More rain.

[RIC_WX]

WX channel reports tornado watch for all of DC metro until 2A.  NWS website does not concur, at least for Loudoun.

[wxmeddler]

hmm may have to go into hiding

 

Literally.

[RIC_WX]

WX channel reports tornado watch for all of DC metro until 2A.  NWS website does not concur, at least for Loudoun.

 

I should charge the NWS to debug their website.  If i plug in "20176" you get the warning, if you type in "leesburg, va" you do not - but you get all the other warnings.  Clearly this is an error.

[swimmatte]

Lots and lots of rain already....

 

Looks like I've collected .82" already today.

[Ian]

Literally.

well.. apologies.

tho not sure it's coming together as modeled still.

i'll wait till verification to declare a loss.

convection sucks... hardest thing out there to forecast.

[Kmlwx]

I should charge the NWS to debug their website.  If i plug in "20176" you get the warning, if you type in "leesburg, va" you do not - but you get all the other warnings.  Clearly this is an error.

 

Maybe your cache is giving you an old version of the page? Not sure. Probably NWS' fault. 

[Ian]

this must be about the earliest in the year we've ever had a tornado watch

[Amped]

Radar has my total over 1". The line is trying to form some sawtooth type cells on the front end.

[Subtropics]

this must be about the earliest in the year we've ever had a tornado watch

On this basis can we consider winter a success?

[Kmlwx]

this must be about the earliest in the year we've ever had a tornado watch

I feel like whenever we have one early in the year and it's a tor watch, the others like to follow suit later in the year regardless of the setup and if it's really supportive of tornadoes. Ex: 2008, after the derecho, pretty much every watch was a tor watch that year (sure it was a big year but I think many could have been STW). THEN, in some years, they all seem to go STW even if the prior MCD indicated tor. Just an interesting observation. 

[snownut]

1.3 inches on the day here in Boyce.  Imagine this will be a 2" plus event as the moderate rain continues.

[wxmeddler]

well.. apologies.

tho not sure it's coming together as modeled still.

i'll wait till verification to declare a loss.

convection sucks... hardest thing out there to forecast.

 

I'm with ya, some severe level wind gusts still in the cards but a tornado seems unlikely at this point. IMHO. I want to see the 0z sounding though.