2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

[Ellinwood]

Wow this is awful severe weather.

[Disc]

Here comes the severe tstorm watch.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0022.html

[Bob Chill]

Line came through Rockville pretty uneventfully. It was winds were stronger an hour ago.

[WxUSAF]

Starting to rain.  Thriling stuff. 

[Ian]

DC split.

 

[Avdave]

 

Yes, yes you are

[Avdave]

DC split.

 

nam_namer_012_sim_radar.gif

 

dont they use that same Sim Radar shot for every line of Thunderstorms in the area? They just change the dates on it

[Ian]

LWX

Still think there is the risk of severe weather this evening with a

newly organized line moving in from the southwest. Instability from

18z kiad radiosonde observation is weak...but not zero. But even with weak

instability...wind fields/shear are strong enough to raise the

concern for damaging wind gusts across the County Warning Area with organized

convection. Convection may not have lightning and thunder...but

momentum Transfer may be sufficient enough for damaging wind gusts.

[Disc]

Wasn't expecting to be in the line of this.

 

 

AT 359 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE 

 

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 

 

  70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEW 

 

  CASTLE TO ELLISTON-LAFAYETTE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 

 

  PAINT BANK TO BENT MOUNTAIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

[Subtropics]

LWX throws us weenie's a bone.

[aldie 22]

Lol....im in Columbus boatding a plane...hope everyone is safe

[Ian]

Maybe just S/SE of DC could still get in on something a bit better. I do think we can still get a consolidated line later but the argument prior was really about the "svr" risk.

[Ian]

tho it looks like spc might include dc in watch

 

      MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0306 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN VA...NRN/CNTRL NC...SWRN   MD...WASHINGTON DC      CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY       VALID 302106Z - 302300Z      PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT      SUMMARY...A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF   RECENTLY ISSUED WW22.      DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS UPSTREAM ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE   INCREASING SVR THREAT AHEAD OF WW22. DESPITE VERY MEAGER BUOYANCY   INDICATED PER 18Z IAD RAOB...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL WARMING HAS OCCURRED   IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM-SECTOR THETA-E ADVECTION -- SFC TEMPS NOW   IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA -- TO THE E/S OF A   WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD. AND...WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL   ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS...MODEST WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY   AMIDST VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR PER REGIONAL VWP DATA.   AS SUCH...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE FROM SWRN   VA...AND/OR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS COULD   EXTEND NEWD. EITHER WAY...THE SVR THREAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE   NE/E OF WW22 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND DOWNSTREAM SVR TSTM   WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.      ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 01/30/2013         ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...      LAT...LON   36228003 36267922 36837858 37647841 37887940 38417919               38757871 39047740 38937680 38227685 37067738 36107808               35737885 35577971 35698028 36038034 36228003    

[aldie 22]

Debris

[wxdude64]

Here comes the severe tstorm watch.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0022.html

And now your warning!

[ravensrule]

Gusty shower in Pikesvile.  I saw a trash can lid blow by.  Next....

 

MDstorm

 

Was Bethesda Boy chasing it?.

[wxdude64]

I have picked up 0.85 in last 15 minutes from the line moving through western Virginia that has the STW on it, up to 1.30 for the day. Pouring the rain!

[Ian]

well that first batch fooled me

 

still going with no svr around here tho

[snowdude]

So when SPC and LWX say they're still expecting possible severe weather then it's ok but when I say it everyone says I'm dead wrong and will bust? lol. I never said we would get crazy insane severe storms. I still think the "main event" is tonight. Heavy downpours and strong winds that could go severe in some spots. This initial line that's moving through now is nothing. Yes the atmosphere is more stable after the rain but there's still a lot to factor in with potential storms later. 

[Ellinwood]

still going with no svr around here tho

 

Definitely the best bet.

[Ian]

So when SPC and LWX say they're still expecting possible severe weather then it's ok but when I say it everyone says I'm dead wrong and will bust? lol. I never said we would get crazy insane severe storms. I still think the "main event" is tonight. Heavy downpours and strong winds that could go severe in some spots. This initial line that's moving through now is nothing. Yes the atmosphere is more stable after the rain but there's still a lot to factor in with potential storms later. 

 

i was a bit rude earlier but you also said that because the rain showing up wasnt on models it wasnt there basically.. and alluded to big storms. my point all along has been that we're not getting severe weather outside some random isolated report. it's rain... and gusty winds.

[mappy]

Rain

[mappy]

Dulles set a new temp record today

[TradeWinds]

0.81" in Frederick so far today.  Temperature down to 57F.

[RIC_WX]

Is it my imagination, or the squall line that was seemingly racing east a few hours ago seem to have stalled and possibly receded?

[Ian]

Is it my imagination, or the squall line that was seemingly racing east a few hours ago seem to have stalled and possibly receded?

 

southerly flow too much for the cold pool it seems. so close.

 

meanwhile.. that 80% watch still isnt out.

[Kmlwx]

Can see hints of the line on LWX radar near Lexington, VA

[RIC_WX]

southerly flow too much for the cold pool it seems. so close.

 

At JYO, the front came through around 14:30 local, winds shifted to the N, 3-5 mph.  Now we have been overcast for the past hour or so and the winds have shifted back to SE 7 G 26 mph...more closely resembling pre fropa.  So, our powerful cold front is back as a weak warm front for the time being.

[Ian]

At JYO, the front came through around 14:30 local, winds shifted to the N, 3-5 mph. Now we have been overcast for the past hour or so and the winds have shifted back to SE 7 G 26 mph...more closely resembling pre fropa. So, our powerful cold front is back as a weak warm front for the time being.

Well I think it was correctly assessed that its not the front but the leading edge of the cold pool from storms to the west. Getting any severe north of CHO looks increasingly difficult tho.

[Kmlwx]

Line looking increasingly good.