Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Wow this is awful severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Here comes the severe tstorm watch. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0022.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Line came through Rockville pretty uneventfully. It was winds were stronger an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Starting to rain. Thriling stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 DC split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yes, yes you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 DC split. nam_namer_012_sim_radar.gif dont they use that same Sim Radar shot for every line of Thunderstorms in the area? They just change the dates on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 LWX Still think there is the risk of severe weather this evening with a newly organized line moving in from the southwest. Instability from 18z kiad radiosonde observation is weak...but not zero. But even with weak instability...wind fields/shear are strong enough to raise the concern for damaging wind gusts across the County Warning Area with organized convection. Convection may not have lightning and thunder...but momentum Transfer may be sufficient enough for damaging wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Wasn't expecting to be in the line of this. AT 359 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEW CASTLE TO ELLISTON-LAFAYETTE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PAINT BANK TO BENT MOUNTAIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 LWX throws us weenie's a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Lol....im in Columbus boatding a plane...hope everyone is safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Maybe just S/SE of DC could still get in on something a bit better. I do think we can still get a consolidated line later but the argument prior was really about the "svr" risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 tho it looks like spc might include dc in watch MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN VA...NRN/CNTRL NC...SWRN MD...WASHINGTON DC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 302106Z - 302300Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF RECENTLY ISSUED WW22. DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS UPSTREAM ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE INCREASING SVR THREAT AHEAD OF WW22. DESPITE VERY MEAGER BUOYANCY INDICATED PER 18Z IAD RAOB...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL WARMING HAS OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM-SECTOR THETA-E ADVECTION -- SFC TEMPS NOW IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA -- TO THE E/S OF A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD. AND...WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS...MODEST WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY AMIDST VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR PER REGIONAL VWP DATA. AS SUCH...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE FROM SWRN VA...AND/OR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS COULD EXTEND NEWD. EITHER WAY...THE SVR THREAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE NE/E OF WW22 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND DOWNSTREAM SVR TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY. ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 01/30/2013 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36228003 36267922 36837858 37647841 37887940 38417919 38757871 39047740 38937680 38227685 37067738 36107808 35737885 35577971 35698028 36038034 36228003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Debris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Here comes the severe tstorm watch. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0022.html And now your warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Gusty shower in Pikesvile. I saw a trash can lid blow by. Next.... MDstorm Was Bethesda Boy chasing it?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I have picked up 0.85 in last 15 minutes from the line moving through western Virginia that has the STW on it, up to 1.30 for the day. Pouring the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 well that first batch fooled me still going with no svr around here tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 So when SPC and LWX say they're still expecting possible severe weather then it's ok but when I say it everyone says I'm dead wrong and will bust? lol. I never said we would get crazy insane severe storms. I still think the "main event" is tonight. Heavy downpours and strong winds that could go severe in some spots. This initial line that's moving through now is nothing. Yes the atmosphere is more stable after the rain but there's still a lot to factor in with potential storms later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 still going with no svr around here tho Definitely the best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 So when SPC and LWX say they're still expecting possible severe weather then it's ok but when I say it everyone says I'm dead wrong and will bust? lol. I never said we would get crazy insane severe storms. I still think the "main event" is tonight. Heavy downpours and strong winds that could go severe in some spots. This initial line that's moving through now is nothing. Yes the atmosphere is more stable after the rain but there's still a lot to factor in with potential storms later. i was a bit rude earlier but you also said that because the rain showing up wasnt on models it wasnt there basically.. and alluded to big storms. my point all along has been that we're not getting severe weather outside some random isolated report. it's rain... and gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Dulles set a new temp record today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 0.81" in Frederick so far today. Temperature down to 57F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Is it my imagination, or the squall line that was seemingly racing east a few hours ago seem to have stalled and possibly receded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Is it my imagination, or the squall line that was seemingly racing east a few hours ago seem to have stalled and possibly receded? southerly flow too much for the cold pool it seems. so close. meanwhile.. that 80% watch still isnt out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Can see hints of the line on LWX radar near Lexington, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 southerly flow too much for the cold pool it seems. so close. At JYO, the front came through around 14:30 local, winds shifted to the N, 3-5 mph. Now we have been overcast for the past hour or so and the winds have shifted back to SE 7 G 26 mph...more closely resembling pre fropa. So, our powerful cold front is back as a weak warm front for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 At JYO, the front came through around 14:30 local, winds shifted to the N, 3-5 mph. Now we have been overcast for the past hour or so and the winds have shifted back to SE 7 G 26 mph...more closely resembling pre fropa. So, our powerful cold front is back as a weak warm front for the time being. Well I think it was correctly assessed that its not the front but the leading edge of the cold pool from storms to the west. Getting any severe north of CHO looks increasingly difficult tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Line looking increasingly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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