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2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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chris87

chris87

Posted
Posted

I still think the main event will be tonight. These initial storms aren't on any model. We aren't supposed to get any actual downpours until later this evening and after midnight. So either the models are way off or we are still going to get big storms with wind and rain tonight. I'm going with the latter.

 

i like your logic...models are never wrong... :axe:

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I guess what I'm confused about is people saying that it is moving faster than modeled.  It is not.  What looks to be happening is this initial sliver of a line has held on longer than was modeled.  Happens with some regularity, but doesn't really affect what's lined up for midnight, especially since that is not surface forced.

 

we'll see. this is going to super stabilize the area imo. i don't think there won't be anything exciting behind it besides rain.

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chris87

chris87

Posted
Posted

we'll see. this is going to super stabilize the area imo. i don't think there won't be anything exciting behind it besides rain.

 

exactly...it doesn't matter what develops later...it'll be near impossible to mix any *significant* wind down through a solid stable layer...

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

exactly...it doesn't matter what develops later...it'll be near impossible to mix any *significant* wind down through a solid stable layer...

 

i mean't "dont think there WILL be anything exciting"

 

just for the record.

 

 

but if im wrong im going to get lambasted after the slew of comments so far today :P

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted

we'll see. this is going to super stabilize the area imo. i don't think there won't be anything exciting behind it besides rain.

 

 

exactly...it doesn't matter what develops later...it'll be near impossible to mix any *significant* wind down through a solid stable layer...

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting anything interesting tonight either.  We've seen these great winds, no instability events play out before.  What I don't think matters much is whether we lose a few degrees to rain this afternoon. 

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting anything interesting tonight either.  We've seen these great winds, no instability events play out before.  What I don't think matters much is whether we lose a few degrees to rain this afternoon. 

 

im not sure what you mean.. regarding comments that we're going to get big storms later i think it does. it'll probably keep raining for quite a while. maybe we'll get another focused line of some sort.  or we'll just get light to mod rain. the svr risk is trending way lower than spc indicates imo.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Are we referring to the main front back in Indiana?

 

yeah.. tho the nam doesnt really seem to have that as the focus. ive barely looked at models today. it mostly just looks like this first band is way early to me.

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted

yeah.. tho the nam doesnt really seem to have that as the focus. ive barely looked at models today. it mostly just looks like this first band is way early to me.

 

Not early.  It was never supposed to get here.  There are really three parts, the main cold front in IN, the muck through WV, and the line in the LWX region now.  The initial line was supposed to wash out.  It hasn't yet.  The surface front in IN is lagging the upper level support.  The muck currently from GA to PA does have the upper level support catching up to it.  You can see that's how the HRRR (and presumably the others) intensifies that line as we go into the night.

 

 

 

As opposed to the 45 J/Kg we have out there right now?

 

More succinctly than I was able to put it ;)

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Not early.  It was never supposed to get here.  There are really three parts, the main cold front in IN, the muck through WV, and the line in the LWX region now.  The initial line was supposed to wash out.  It hasn't yet.  The surface front in IN is lagging the upper level support.  The muck currently from GA to PA does have the upper level support catching up to it.  You can see that's how the HRRR (and presumably the others) intensifies that line as we go into the night.

 

 

 

 

More succinctly than I was able to put it ;)

 

perhaps. tho im not a modelcaster at this range.. nowcasting will generally do you much better. still don't see how any rain now is going to help later if you're looking for anything other than rain.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

cold pools often outrun the actual front. we see it happen a lot in the warm season. that's partly why we all say that the models are slow with convection. it has slowed markedly recently but it's still at least slowly redeveloping SE. SPC cleared areas to the w from svr risk..

 

i suppose if it stops now we might still get something exciting.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

cold pools often outrun the actual front. we see it happen a lot in the warm season. that's partly why we all say that the models are slow with convection. it has slowed markedly recently but it's still at least slowly redeveloping SE. SPC cleared areas to the w from svr risk..

i suppose if it stops now we might still get something exciting.

Meh
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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

mcd0100.gif

      MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0221 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/N-CNTRL NC...SWRN VA      CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE       VALID 302021Z - 302145Z      PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT      SUMMARY...THE SVR POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF   HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.      DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO SWRN VA PER RECENT   LIGHTNING TRENDS AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY...OVER THE ERN   FRINGES OF A BROAD NE/SW-ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION.   CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT -- AS EVIDENCED BY SFC PRESSURE FALLS   OF 2-3.5 MB PER 2 HRS -- WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION E OF   THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR PER VWP   DATA...QLCS SEGMENTS WITH SVR WINDS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER NE WITH A   THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS. IF AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS   CONTINUES TO BE NOTED...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.      ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 01/30/2013         ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...      LAT...LON   36078077 36268164 36938105 37857979 37487896 36867883               36227962 36078077
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