Mrs.J Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Just got awfully bright over here in Dundalk, 67 degrees. That is what happened over here and now it is getting dark with rain starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I still think the main event will be tonight. These initial storms aren't on any model. We aren't supposed to get any actual downpours until later this evening and after midnight. So either the models are way off or we are still going to get big storms with wind and rain tonight. I'm going with the latter. i like your logic...models are never wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I guess what I'm confused about is people saying that it is moving faster than modeled. It is not. What looks to be happening is this initial sliver of a line has held on longer than was modeled. Happens with some regularity, but doesn't really affect what's lined up for midnight, especially since that is not surface forced. we'll see. this is going to super stabilize the area imo. i don't think there won't be anything exciting behind it besides rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 we'll see. this is going to super stabilize the area imo. i don't think there won't be anything exciting behind it besides rain. exactly...it doesn't matter what develops later...it'll be near impossible to mix any *significant* wind down through a solid stable layer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 exactly...it doesn't matter what develops later...it'll be near impossible to mix any *significant* wind down through a solid stable layer... i mean't "dont think there WILL be anything exciting" just for the record. but if im wrong im going to get lambasted after the slew of comments so far today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Pouring rain here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 we'll see. this is going to super stabilize the area imo. i don't think there won't be anything exciting behind it besides rain. exactly...it doesn't matter what develops later...it'll be near impossible to mix any *significant* wind down through a solid stable layer... Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting anything interesting tonight either. We've seen these great winds, no instability events play out before. What I don't think matters much is whether we lose a few degrees to rain this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Looks like a little appendage is trying to form northwest of Leesburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting anything interesting tonight either. We've seen these great winds, no instability events play out before. What I don't think matters much is whether we lose a few degrees to rain this afternoon. im not sure what you mean.. regarding comments that we're going to get big storms later i think it does. it'll probably keep raining for quite a while. maybe we'll get another focused line of some sort. or we'll just get light to mod rain. the svr risk is trending way lower than spc indicates imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 we'll see. this is going to super stabilize the area imo. i don't think there won't be anything exciting behind it besides rain. As opposed to the 45 J/Kg we have out there right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 With the extremely strong winds aloft, no question as to why these stayed organized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 As opposed to the 45 J/Kg we have out there right now? anything is better than a rain cooled airmass. we'll see. the main front has had some increase in convection lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 anything is better than a rain cooled airmass. we'll see. the main front has had some increase in convection lately. Are we referring to the main front back in Indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Very gusty here with a nice squall approaching. Feels much more like a late April day than late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Are we referring to the main front back in Indiana? yeah.. tho the nam doesnt really seem to have that as the focus. ive barely looked at models today. it mostly just looks like this first band is way early to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 60 down from 69 and 0.33 in the PWS. Very calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 SPEC 18z KIAD sounding says ~400 forecasted SBCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I love Yoda's updates when it comes to severe. Gets me so pumped for severe season. I don't think we see much tonight other than rain. This scenario has played out before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 yeah.. tho the nam doesnt really seem to have that as the focus. ive barely looked at models today. it mostly just looks like this first band is way early to me. Not early. It was never supposed to get here. There are really three parts, the main cold front in IN, the muck through WV, and the line in the LWX region now. The initial line was supposed to wash out. It hasn't yet. The surface front in IN is lagging the upper level support. The muck currently from GA to PA does have the upper level support catching up to it. You can see that's how the HRRR (and presumably the others) intensifies that line as we go into the night. As opposed to the 45 J/Kg we have out there right now? More succinctly than I was able to put it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 SPC agrees with me given their update http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not early. It was never supposed to get here. There are really three parts, the main cold front in IN, the muck through WV, and the line in the LWX region now. The initial line was supposed to wash out. It hasn't yet. The surface front in IN is lagging the upper level support. The muck currently from GA to PA does have the upper level support catching up to it. You can see that's how the HRRR (and presumably the others) intensifies that line as we go into the night. More succinctly than I was able to put it perhaps. tho im not a modelcaster at this range.. nowcasting will generally do you much better. still don't see how any rain now is going to help later if you're looking for anything other than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 cold pools often outrun the actual front. we see it happen a lot in the warm season. that's partly why we all say that the models are slow with convection. it has slowed markedly recently but it's still at least slowly redeveloping SE. SPC cleared areas to the w from svr risk.. i suppose if it stops now we might still get something exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 cold pools often outrun the actual front. we see it happen a lot in the warm season. that's partly why we all say that the models are slow with convection. it has slowed markedly recently but it's still at least slowly redeveloping SE. SPC cleared areas to the w from svr risk.. i suppose if it stops now we might still get something exciting. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Nice warned bowing segment in SW VA near Wytheville moving in my direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Meh wind advisory. almost counts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/N-CNTRL NC...SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 302021Z - 302145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SVR POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO SWRN VA PER RECENT LIGHTNING TRENDS AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY...OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF A BROAD NE/SW-ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT -- AS EVIDENCED BY SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-3.5 MB PER 2 HRS -- WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION E OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR PER VWP DATA...QLCS SEGMENTS WITH SVR WINDS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER NE WITH A THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS. IF AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUES TO BE NOTED...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 01/30/2013 ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36078077 36268164 36938105 37857979 37487896 36867883 36227962 36078077 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Gusty shower in Pikesvile. I saw a trash can lid blow by. Next.... MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Haven't been following this much but I've hit some serious rain/wind on my commute. Pic taken in Clarksville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The boundary has stalled right on top of me... waiting to see if it can lift back north and allow the surface/low-levels to warm back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Wow this is awful severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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