Edge Weather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The GFS ensemble members are evenly divided on the 18z 1/25/13 run with 6 members favoring a slower moving cold front that develops a deep low that goes into the Great Lakes and 6 members that favor a faster moving front as the ECMWF does, but it leaves behind some energy that develops a major storm with 4 members getting a low down into the 970's off the NJ Coast on Thursday and two others with weaker systems affecting our area after the cold frontal passage. Interestingly, 2 of the ensemble members get the storm down to 972mb just off the NJ Coast at exactly the same time at 144 hrs. Another member gets the low down to 976mb a bit further off shore at 132 hrs and another member gets the system down to 972mb at 156 hrs, but takes an inland track in order to get to the same location as the two at 144 hrs. I think you have to favor the 6 members that go with the ECMWF at this point as the ECMWF does have the highest degree of accuracy at 144 hrs. Things could get interesting next Thursday, however currently neither the operational ECMWF, nor it's ensemble mean show anything particular interesting there, although the two prior runs of the operational ECMWF did have a strong Nor'easter that turned up the coast, but largely remaining just out to sea and just side-swiping us on the 0z run today. In summary, the 1/25/13 18z GFS has 4 of 12 members producing a low to mid 970's low near the NJ coast next Thursday, within 24 hours of each other, with 2 other members producing a weaker low in the same vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 0z ECMWF delays the front until early Thursday morning now, but does ride a low pressure area along the front which manges to drop 1-3 inches of snow behind the front in Northern NJ on Thursday morning. A couple of the 0z GFS ensemble members did the same thing and one ensemble member still produced a strong storm off the Jersey Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 12z 1/26/13 GFS has the wave also but it is rain, and 2-3 inches of rain at that, as it takes an inland track. It deepens the low to 979mb over NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 12z 1/26/13 GFS has the wave also but it is rain, and 2-3 inches of rain at that, as it takes an inland track. It deepens the low to 979mb over NY State. Yeah, first op run in awhile to bring it back, its not totally obvious but its there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 UKMET bombs the Thursday storm out over far Northern Canada down to 943mb. I guess some weak energy will rotate around this and could at least bring us some clippers for around next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 12z Canadian has the wave along the front also and also deepens the storm down to 938mb over far Northern Canada and every model right now has a clipper for us for Friday, even the NOGAPS, as the energy rotates around the storm into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 A few of the GFS ensembles like the idea of a developing storm from this clipper that'll arrive after this storm. Still could change as time advances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The 1/31 event looks to be a high wind maker. At hr 114 12z GFS has winds at the surface sustained up to 45mph. It also has 925mb winds at 110mph! (KISP) 50-80mph gusts might not be out the question. Question is, would inversion prevent the winds from mixing down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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