IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Since we now have more than just the GFS showing something for the beginning of February I figured I would make a new thread to seperate this from the banter. The models show a long wave trough building into the southwest and sliding eastward in the 3-5 day range. The GFS had been showing the trough ejecting eastward, through the deep south and then up the coast. The models seem to be in fairly good agreement with showing a cutter heading towards the Great Lakes but then things change from model to model. The GFS develops several low pressure systems along the trough as it goes negative over the TN Valley and sends an intensifying low pressure system towards our area. The 00z GFS had this low over NJ in 153 hours. On most of the GFS runs it's been rain changing over to back end snows but when and where the low comes up the coast will be very important. The last two runs of the ECMWF send the northern stream towards the lakes as a cutter and holds back the southern stream as a cut off low in the SW. It's currently the only model to hold back the energy as much as it does. The EC eventually ejects the energy eastward but the system stays well offshore to our south. The 00z CMC doesn't cut off the southern stream at all but instead sends the entire trough eastward with a cutter towards the lakes and another low forming in eastern CO. The GFS had been showing something similar for many consecutive runs.The first cutter heads towards extreme SE Canada and the surface low from CO shifts eastward as the two streams phase over the TN Valley and the trough axis goes negative tilt. The Canadian then forms another surface low off the SC coast and sends that quickly out to sea, but right or wrong, it doesn't eliminate the other low which heads towards eastern Ohio. Another piece of energy phases in and a miller B pops right off the Jersey shore bringing us all Miller B snows for February 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Anything is possible...even Bill Murray landed Andie McDowell. Since we now have more than just the GFS showing something for the beginning of February I figured I would make a new thread to seperate this from the banter. The models show a long wave trough building into the southwest and sliding eastward in the 3-5 day range. The GFS had been showing the trough ejecting eastward, through the deep south and then up the coast. The models seem to be in fairly good agreement with showing a cutter heading towards the Great Lakes but then things change from model to model. The GFS develops several low pressure systems along the trough as it goes negative over the TN Valley and sends an intensifying low pressure system towards our area. The 00z GFS had this low over NJ in 153 hours. On most of the GFS runs it's been rain changing over to back end snows but when and where the low comes up the coast will be very important. The last two runs of the ECMWF send the northern stream towards the lakes as a cutter and holds back the southern stream as a cut off low in the SW. It's currently the only model to hold back the energy as much as it does. The EC eventually ejects the energy eastward but the system stays well offshore to our south. The 00z CMC doesn't cut off the southern stream at all but instead sends the entire trough eastward with a cutter towards the lakes and another low forming in eastern CO. The GFS had been showing something similar for many consecutive runs.The first cutter heads towards extreme SE Canada and the surface low from CO shifts eastward as the two streams phase over the TN Valley and the trough axis goes negative tilt. The Canadian then forms another surface low off the SC coast and sends that quickly out to sea, but right or wrong, it doesn't eliminate the other low which heads towards eastern Ohio. Another piece of energy phases in and a miller B pops right off the Jersey shore bringing us all Miller B snows for February 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Isn't a known bias for the EURO to hold back energy too much? Lets hope early feb can turn out to better for us since the MJO will be in a more favorable stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Another model run from the CMC and another possible outcome. Everything tracks further north and the miller B pops over PA and heads to our north. We're cold but not much wrap around moisture this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Isn't a known bias for the EURO to hold back energy too much? Lets hope early feb can turn out to better for us since the MJO will be in a more favorable stage. Yes but it's not always wrong in doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Looks like this run of the Euro is going to come in much different. Looks like it lost the cut off and now pops a low in south Texas by hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Looks like this run of the Euro is going to come in much different. Looks like it lost the cut off and now pops a low in south Texas by hr 120 Its bias is definitely at play here in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Its bias is definitely at play here in the SW. Well now it's shearing out the southern stream completely which I don't understand given the potential phase that a lot of the models have indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 its a glorified fropa this run. Just cold rain followed by cold and dry this run.* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Looks like this run of the Euro is going to come in much different. Looks like it lost the cut off and now pops a low in south Texas by hr 120 makes sense given the fast flow. A lot of models have shown the northern stream digging too much in the medium range, giving the allusion of a decent storm chance.It did it with today's "storm". As it gets nearer, models back away from the northern stream digging/phasing. Id be careful about getting expectations up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Looks like the 12Z EC OP run followed the 00Z EC ensembles! Not much to see here unfortunately, the cold & dry pattern looks to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Anything is possible...even Bill Murray landed Andie McDowell. lol. i like what you did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 You really cant expect to wrap up a big systems of the Eastern seaboard next weekend with the NAO pos in a long wave pattern .If you look at day 7 - 8 proggs you will do so at you`re own peril . The Euro likes to paint robust LPs every other run in its day 7- 10 either to the lakes or to EC , only to back off a run or two later . I am a little wary that with NAO pos that trough may fly in and get pushed out 4 to 5 days later with nothing have ever being underneath it . Just too far my eyes too see in all honesty . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 makes sense given the fast flow. A lot of models have shown the northern stream digging too much in the medium range, giving the allusion of a decent storm chance.It did it with today's "storm". As it gets nearer, models back away from the northern stream digging/phasing. Id be careful about getting expectations up. Even with the MJO moving into phase 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Even with the MJO moving into phase 8? According to this the MJO is not anywhere near Phase 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 According to this the MJO is not anywhere near Phase 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Those are forecasts..What i posted is the current MJO Ant...the verification of those forecasts are and have been lacking ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Those are forecasts..What i posted is the current MJO Ant...the verification of those forecasts are and have been lacking ! Do you think it will die out in phase 7 or do you think it will move forward into phase 8 and 1 just like the models are showing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38643-medium-range-long-range-thread/page-25 Some pretty good stuff from Adam and HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 EURO seems to be showing the same solution from last night's 00z just based on the free maps at ECMWF site... neg tilt but the surface low is farther east this time... also, can't seem to see past 140hr EURO at Wunderground anymore; would be nice to see what happens before 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 EURO seems to be showing the same solution from last night's 00z just based on the free maps at ECMWF site... neg tilt but the surface low is farther east this time... also, can't seem to see past 140hr EURO at Wunderground anymore; would be nice to see what happens before 168 It's nowhere near last nights 0z solution. It looks like the gfs, just not as phased and a big slower. (Aka chilly rain followed by arctic blast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Am I crazy or does the D10 00z EURO setup look primed for an extremely major ice storm over portions of the Northeastern US? The low is cutting early but you have an enormous amount of cold air over Quebec. Obviously quite a ways away, but we haven't had a significant icing event in quite some time and--to me--the setup depicted looks prime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Am I crazy or does the D10 00z EURO setup look primed for an extremely major ice storm over portions of the Northeastern US? The low is cutting early but you have an enormous amount of cold air over Quebec. Obviously quite a ways away, but we haven't had a significant icing event in quite some time and--to me--the setup depicted looks prime. You're right. Snow for the NNE, but Snow to Ice at CNE to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Well here we go again, most models show something around this date...00Z Canadian, 00Z GFS, 00Z NOGAPS, 06Z DGEX, it appears the Euro has something but its even more offshroe than the DGEX. Ultimately this one comes down to how much the vort diving out of Canada can dig, the more it digs the more likely it go negative as it approaches the MA coast and produce a low that comes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 What a shocker, 12Z GFS loses the system, GEM still has it, GFS does have it over the TN Valley but then loses it, the GFS cold bias is very evident as it digs that system way more over the TN Valley than the GEM does...the NOGAPS picks up more on the secondary clipper than drops out around 144 or later but I still think SOMETHING is going to happen between Day 6-9 along the East Coast, its just a question of where and how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Euro is cold and dry through day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Euro is cold and dry through day 10 If that's the case the pattern is just Cold and dry and then Warm up and rain , The teleconnections can't work in tandem , we r stuck in a yr where one piece is constantly missing . 14 of 17 days possible with below normal temperatures and in the same 3 week we may average above normal precip ( primarily from we'd rain ) and CPK may finish with a total of only 2 inches of snow in what will b the coldest 3 week period of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 HM has some good news in the Philly med range thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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