Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...WRN/CNTRL KY...SRN IND...SRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11... VALID 300319Z - 300445Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MAY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOUR. IN ADDITIONALLY...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...SOME OVER 65 KT...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD...A DOWNSTREAM WW WILL BE REQUIRED. DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS SERN MO AND SRN IL HAS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST HOUR. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM NQA AND PAH SHOW WINDS OVER 70 KT AT 3 KFT WITH PAH ALSO SHOWING OVER 100 KT AT 4 KFT. BOTH VADS ALSO SHOW 0-1 KM SRH OVER 600 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SRH OVER 900 M2/S2. THIS EXTREMELY STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH RAP MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING EFFECTIVE SRH OF OVER 1000 M2 PER S2 AT 05Z ACROSS FAR SRN IL AND SWRN KY. PRESSURE FALLS GREATER THAN 4 MB PER 2 HRS WERE NOTED ON 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. ALL SIGNS POINT TO A VERY STRONG LINE OF TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED TORNADOES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...SOME IN EXCESS OF 65 KT. A DOWNSTREAM WW WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND SRN IND. ..MOSIER.. 01/30/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 That MD sums it up quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The shear is off the charts down there, you can really see the embedded circulations on PAH's radar, a lot of this is going to be passing through Beau Dodson's area pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 343 UNK 2 NW HERRIN WILLIAMSON IL 3782 8906 DAMAGE TO RADIO ANTENNAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 343 UNK 2 NW HERRIN WILLIAMSON IL 3782 8906 DAMAGE TO RADIO ANTENNAS. That's some serious wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 70 mph surface wind reported at Herrin IL. Can only imagine what it must have been like at the top of the radio tower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The shear is off the charts down there, you can really see the embedded circulations on PAH's radar, a lot of this is going to be passing through Beau Dodson's area pretty soon. From EVV From PAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY1026 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS... GALLATIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... WABASH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS... EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... WHITE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... WEST CENTRAL GIBSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... WESTERN POSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...* UNTIL 1100 PM CST.* AT 1020 PM CST...SALINE COUNTY 911 REPORTED INJURIES ASSOCIATEDWITH DAMAGING WINDS NEAR GALATIA. THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7MILES EAST OF CISNE TO 9 MILES WEST OF NORRIS CITY TO CREALSPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... HARRISBURG...ELDORADO...CARMI...ALBION...SHAWNEETOWN...MOUNT VERNON...CARRIERS MILLS...ENFIELD...NORRIS CITY...WEST SALEM... CROSSVILLE...EQUALITY...GRAYVILLE...RIDGWAY...LANCASTER...NEW HARMONY...BURNT PRAIRIE...GOLDEN GATE...MUDDY AND OMAHA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 That is a powerful squall line as it approaches the Wabash down in southern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 There looks too be many embedded circulations on the lead edge of that line, I wouldn't be shocked if there were some brief spin ups within the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 There looks too be many embedded circulations on the lead edge of that line, I wouldn't be shocked if there were some brief spin ups within the line At the very least I think these would be the areas to watch for the more intense straight line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 There looks too be many embedded circulations on the lead edge of that line, I wouldn't be shocked if there were some brief spin ups within the line A lot of the severe thunderstorm warnings have had the traditional "this line may produce brief tornadoes" wording. It seems like PAH is only TORing the stronger/more persistent ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 PWS in Metropolis gusted to 63mph. Just happened to be watching it at the right time. Edit: It just hit 68mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 PWS in Metropolis gusted to 63mph. Just happened to be watching it at the right time. Edit: It just hit 68mph. 60 knots at 400 ft, just before that gust. The image as it passed Metropolis didn't show a whole lot because winds were perpendicular to the beam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Now a TOR right as a drop out in CC shows up. Not sure if it's real or not, I don't see much of a velocity signature that screams tornado. And the other variables are inconclusive too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Latest MCD discussing the threat N of I-70: REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN WITH NRNEXTENT ALONG AN EXTENSIVE QLCS...COINCIDENT WITH A SURFACE CYCLONENEAR LAF AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEWDOVERNIGHT...DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS AREAS FARTHERS WITH MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS N OF WW 12. MODIFIED FORECASTSOUNDINGS SUGGEST BUOYANCY IS MEAGER AND ROOTED FROM ELEVATEDPARCELS. NEVERTHELESS...EXTREME KINEMATIC FIELDS /FLOW AOA 80 KTABOVE 1 KM AGL IN IND VWP DATA/ COULD YIELD ISOLATED SWATHS OFDAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF OBSERVED CONVECTIVE WINDGUSTS AOA 25 KT ROUGHLY N OF 40 DEG LATITUDE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIALMAY REMAIN MARGINAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1130 PM CST. * AT 1102 PM CST...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR METROPOLIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PUBLIC REPORTED BLOWN TRANSFORMERS IN METROPOLIS ALONG WITH A MEASURED 68 MPH WIND GUST. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL MASSAC COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Now a TOR right as a drop out in CC shows up. Not sure if it's real or not, I don't see much of a velocity signature that screams tornado. And the other variables are inconclusive too.Public reported power flashes and transformers blowing in Metropolis around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Perhaps it was a small spinup.. 68mph wind report is represented by the blue dot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Perhaps it was a small spinup.. 68mph wind report is represented by the blue dot. Very difficult warning environment, as these features can easily drop and lift all in between successive volume scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Looks like IND just added the rest of the CWA north of I-70 to the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yayyyyyy. Classic Indiana blanket warning. Not a TOR though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Tornado warned storm heading toward Bloomington IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Tornado warned storm heading toward Bloomington IN BWER with it, and the circulation is tightening, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 BMG with a 55 kt gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1231 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1020 PM TSTM WND DMG GALATIA 37.84N 88.61W 01/29/2013 SALINE IL LAW ENFORCEMENT *** 2 INJ *** NUMEROUS TREES DOWN WITHIN THE COMMUNITY. THREE INDIVIDUALS TRAPPED IN DESTROYED HOME HAVE BEEN RESCUED. TWO WERE INJURED. REPORTED BY SALINE COUNTY 911. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Looks like I got a tornado watch on the way. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN INDIANA...WRN/CENTRAL OH AND NORTH CENTRAL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 300645Z - 300745Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REST OF ERN INDIANA INTO WRN AND CENTRAL OH...AND NORTH CENTRAL KY. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF AN EWD MOVING SQUALL LINE WAS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPE INTO WRN AND CENTRAL OH UP TO 250 J/KG. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THE ONGOING DESTABILIZATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ INTO THIS PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY /UP 80 KT AT THE SDF WSR-88D/ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED RECENTLY IN INDIANA /MEASURED 56 KT AT BMG AT 623Z/ AND AN ESTIMATED 61 KT WIND GUST IN HENDRICKS COUNTY IND AT 610Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ALSO INDICATED EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING ACROSS WRN OH WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 100-200 M2/S2. GIVEN THE STRENGTHEN OF THE SLY LLJ...THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE FOR A TORNADO THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Nasty couplet just went right through Holly Springs, MS. Hope it stayed North of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Hmm, I wonder what the northern end of this squall will bring for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 New tornado warning in southern IN. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY218 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA... EASTERN DUBOIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA... ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...* UNTIL 250 AM EST...* AT 216 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BIRDSEYE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT... PAOLI... ETHEL AND BROWNSTOWN... YOUNGS CREEK AND GREENBRIER... PINE VALLEY AND BRAXTONS SIDING... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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