Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,614
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

January 28-30 Severe Threat


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 196
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Not saying it wil happen but this kind of shear/instability profile has produced some high end tornadoes in Indiana in the past.  Some cause for concern especially with the overnight timing. 

 

 

attachicon.gifevv.gif

The Evansville 05 tornado had only 65 Joules of 0-3km CAPE to work with, per this link about small CAPE TOR's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's pretty clear there is insufficient CAPE to maintain any decent severe. Best threat from here on out will be roughly along/south of I-70.

 

IWX disagrees...somewhat.

 

 

ATTENTION BY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TURNS TOTHE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCT THUNDER THAT ISALREADY TAKING SHAPE ALONG A DEEPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE...AHEAD OF ASOUTHERN PLAINS INTENSE PV ANOMALY AND JET STREAK ENERGY THAT WILLEJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATER TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE220-240 METER 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS WAVE WILL INDUCECYCLOGENESIS AND A ~80 KNOT LOW LEVEL BY LATER TONIGHT! THERESULTING STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING/FLOW AND EXCELLENT MOISTURETRANSPORT SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...MODELSHAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER WITH THE HEAVIESTSWATH OF RAIN NOW EXPECTED ACROSS ILLINOIS AS LINE OFCONVECTION/RAIN NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE TRANSITORY LOCALLY. STILL OPTEDTO CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH EVERYWHERE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVENATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLYACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE IWX CWA. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BETHE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVELINE SEGMENTS IF THEY SURVIVE INTO OUR AREA. LATEST RAP/HRRR/NAMITERATIONS SUGGEST MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG WITH SHEAR OFF THE CHARTS.A LIMITING FACTOR WHICH KEEPS THIS RISK IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY WILLBE THE LACK OF ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY. STILL SUCH STRONGUNIDIRECTIONAL BACKGROUND FLOW WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FLOW/MOISTUREDOES HINT AT A POSSIBLE THIN LINE SEVERE WIND EVENT (ISO TORNADO?)ACROSS AT LEAST OUR INDIANA ZONES LATER THIS EVENING/EARLYOVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

449 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0315 PM TORNADO 4 N MARTHASVILLE 38.69N 91.05W

01/29/2013 WARREN MO TRAINED SPOTTER

SIDING DAMAGE... 16 FOOT STRIPS BLOWN ONE QUARTER MILE DOWNWIND... OVERHANG BLEW OFF SHED... PICKED UP WATER TANKS AND MOVED THEM... TREE TOPS SHREDDED

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

715 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

WESTERN KENTUCKY

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 715 PM UNTIL 100 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES VERY STRONG AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...90KT+ WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3KM COUPLED WITH EXTREME SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22050.

...HART

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

908 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 945 PM CST.

* AT 906 PM CST...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALTENBURG...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MURPHYSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...

MURPHYSBORO...CARBONDALE...CEDAR LAKE AREA...DE SOTO AND GORHAM.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

914 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

UNION COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

CENTRAL CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 945 PM CST.

* AT 911 PM CST...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JACKSON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...

JONESBORO...ANNA...WARE...COBDEN...DONGOLA...POCAHONTAS AND MILL CREEK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN EXITS 99 AND 105.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN EXITS 24 AND 30.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like a nice line forming from southern IL on back SW.

Nighttime tornadoes of course, FTL.

FTL indeed.

I'd be more bullish locally if we could get our dewpoint up a few more degrees but I'm not sure it's going to happen. Still can't rule something out but chances are better farther south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FTL indeed.

I'd be more bullish locally if we could get our dewpoint up a few more degrees but I'm not sure it's going to happen. Still can't rule something out but chances are better farther south.

 

You think Indy has a chance? I'm just extrapolating current radar...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...