SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Was there any timeline for repair of LOTs radar? Will be interesting with a significant event/possible severe with a radar running hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Tor watch soon to be forthcoming for St. Louis area up to about Quincy and south through the Ozarks per SPC mesodiscussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not saying it wil happen but this kind of shear/instability profile has produced some high end tornadoes in Indiana in the past. Some cause for concern especially with the overnight timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It's pretty clear there is insufficient CAPE to maintain any decent severe. Best threat from here on out will be roughly along/south of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not saying it wil happen but this kind of shear/instability profile has produced some high end tornadoes in Indiana in the past. Some cause for concern especially with the overnight timing. evv.gif The Evansville 05 tornado had only 65 Joules of 0-3km CAPE to work with, per this link about small CAPE TOR's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 18Z NAM continues to ramp up instability profiles along the OH River and has also amped the 850 LLJ back to 85+kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It's pretty clear there is insufficient CAPE to maintain any decent severe. Best threat from here on out will be roughly along/south of I-70. IWX disagrees...somewhat. ATTENTION BY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TURNS TOTHE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCT THUNDER THAT ISALREADY TAKING SHAPE ALONG A DEEPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE...AHEAD OF ASOUTHERN PLAINS INTENSE PV ANOMALY AND JET STREAK ENERGY THAT WILLEJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATER TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE220-240 METER 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS WAVE WILL INDUCECYCLOGENESIS AND A ~80 KNOT LOW LEVEL BY LATER TONIGHT! THERESULTING STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING/FLOW AND EXCELLENT MOISTURETRANSPORT SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...MODELSHAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER WITH THE HEAVIESTSWATH OF RAIN NOW EXPECTED ACROSS ILLINOIS AS LINE OFCONVECTION/RAIN NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE TRANSITORY LOCALLY. STILL OPTEDTO CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH EVERYWHERE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVENATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLYACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE IWX CWA. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BETHE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVELINE SEGMENTS IF THEY SURVIVE INTO OUR AREA. LATEST RAP/HRRR/NAMITERATIONS SUGGEST MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG WITH SHEAR OFF THE CHARTS.A LIMITING FACTOR WHICH KEEPS THIS RISK IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY WILLBE THE LACK OF ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY. STILL SUCH STRONGUNIDIRECTIONAL BACKGROUND FLOW WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FLOW/MOISTUREDOES HINT AT A POSSIBLE THIN LINE SEVERE WIND EVENT (ISO TORNADO?)ACROSS AT LEAST OUR INDIANA ZONES LATER THIS EVENING/EARLYOVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 n ill line trying to organize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 There's a nasty looking cell just exiting Calhoun county into SW jackson county Michigan. Has rotation and defined hook. No warning for it but looks powerfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 449 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0315 PM TORNADO 4 N MARTHASVILLE 38.69N 91.05W 01/29/2013 WARREN MO TRAINED SPOTTER SIDING DAMAGE... 16 FOOT STRIPS BLOWN ONE QUARTER MILE DOWNWIND... OVERHANG BLEW OFF SHED... PICKED UP WATER TANKS AND MOVED THEM... TREE TOPS SHREDDED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Is it too early to call the northern storm threat a bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Is it too early to call the northern storm threat a bust? nah, northern severe threat was conditional and busted hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/01/arctic-front-to-slam-into-region-late.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 715 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WESTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 715 PM UNTIL 100 AM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES VERY STRONG AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...90KT+ WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3KM COUPLED WITH EXTREME SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22050. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Thoughts on this later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 908 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 945 PM CST. * AT 906 PM CST...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALTENBURG...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MURPHYSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... MURPHYSBORO...CARBONDALE...CEDAR LAKE AREA...DE SOTO AND GORHAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 914 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... UNION COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... CENTRAL CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 945 PM CST. * AT 911 PM CST...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JACKSON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... JONESBORO...ANNA...WARE...COBDEN...DONGOLA...POCAHONTAS AND MILL CREEK. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN EXITS 99 AND 105. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN EXITS 24 AND 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Several meso vorticies showing up in the QLCS from far S. IL into the MO Bootheel...PAH trying to warn them individually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Hoosier....good call earlier for us seeing near blanket tor warnings in that QLCS which is traversing southern IL and se MO at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Looks like a nice line forming from southern IL on back SW. Nighttime tornadoes of course, FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Looks like a good couplet west of Carbondale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Looks like a nice line forming from southern IL on back SW. Nighttime tornadoes of course, FTL. FTL indeed. I'd be more bullish locally if we could get our dewpoint up a few more degrees but I'm not sure it's going to happen. Still can't rule something out but chances are better farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 .A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL STODDARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 930 PM CST... AT 915 PM CST...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 8 MILES EAST OF DEXTER. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ESSEX...OR NEAR DEXTER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 This morning, rain, thunder and lightning at around 35°. It warmed up to the present high of 55° here in Saginaw, MI with more rain/thunder/lightning for this evening. This is January, right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 FTL indeed. I'd be more bullish locally if we could get our dewpoint up a few more degrees but I'm not sure it's going to happen. Still can't rule something out but chances are better farther south. You think Indy has a chance? I'm just extrapolating current radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Tornado Alarms off in Carbondale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Latest tor warning from Paducah for Cape Girardeau and points south will be aiming for Beau Dodson territory in Massac County if it keeps its current trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 You think Indy has a chance? I'm just extrapolating current radar... Some chance, sure, but I think the chances really go up the closer you get to the Ohio river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Some chance, sure, but I think the chances really go up the closer you get to the Ohio river. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 New tornado watch out for central/southern IN. Does not include Indy proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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