Cold Start to February

[MJO812]

GFS has an active southern jet

[MJO812]

Gefs is also active. MJO is going to play a role.

[uncle W]

today was the 10th day with a max 32 or lower...I didn't think it would make that mark but it did...Winters with less days below freezing have much less snow than the winters with many days below freezing...You don't have to be Einstein to know that...This is a list of the lowest and highest amounts of days with a max of 32 or lower and the snow fall for that season...

least amounts of max freezing days...Since 1930...

season...max 32 or lower...snowfall...

1952-53...............2.................15.1"

1997-98...............3...................5.5"

2001-02...............3...................3.5"

1931-32...............5...................5.3"

2007-08...............6.................11.9"

2011-12...............6...................7.4"

1990-91...............7.................24.9"

1992-93...............7.................24.5"

1974-75...............8.................13.1"

1948-49...............9.................46.6"

2005-06.............10.................40.0"

1936-37.............10.................15.6"

1986-87.............11.................23.1"

1996-97.............11.................10.0"

1994-95.............11.................11.8"

1949-50.............12.................13.8"

1930-31.............12.................11.6"

two of seventeen were above average......12 were less than average...two were near average...

winters with the most...

1976-77.............45.................24.5"

1977-78.............42.................50.7"

1935-36.............39.................33.2"

1933-34.............38.................52.0"

1947-48.............32.................63.2"

1993-94.............31.................53.4"

2002-03.............31.................49.3"

1980-81.............30.................19.4"

1995-96.............30.................75.6"

1983-84.............29.................25.4"

1962-63.............29.................16.3"

1939-40.............29.................25.7"

1942-43.............28.................29.5"

1944-45.............27.................27.1"

1960-61.............27.................54.7"

1969-70.............27.................25.6"

nine of sixteen were above average......two were less than average...five were near average...

[nzucker]

76-77 was an impressive winter; 45 days with a maximum below freezing is amazing at Central Park. Look how we've struggled to get past 10 the last couple of seasons. January also averaged 22.1 in 1977, which was the second coldest behind 1918. 

 

Made it to 31.0F today after a low of 19.7F. That's a departure around -5F. 

[nzucker]

it's not looking that cold for Monday night at Central Park.

 

 

...NEW YORK CITY...   CENTRAL PARK, NY   PTCLDY   FLRRYS   FLRRYS   PTCLDY   MOCLDY   SUNNY    PTCLDY   24/33    25/34    29/34    27/38    32/38    31/42    31/46    30/10    30/20    40/40    10/10    30/40    40/10    10/10

 

 

it's not looking that cold for Monday night at Central Park.

 

 

...NEW YORK CITY...   CENTRAL PARK, NY   PTCLDY   FLRRYS   FLRRYS   PTCLDY   MOCLDY   SUNNY    PTCLDY   24/33    25/34    29/34    27/38    32/38    31/42    31/46    30/10    30/20    40/40    10/10    30/40    40/10    10/10

Tonight might be close as well but I think the low ends up around 21-22F. 850s drop to -14C at 9z on the GFS, and if skies stay clear, teens could be within reach. Central Park is at 28/15 with clear skies right now...

[MJO812]

Nam has light snow in our area for tomorrow night into Tuesday

[nzucker]

Going to be another cold one here...already down to 22.4/18 and dropping quickly with clear skies. Should make teens again. 

[MJO812]

GFS and RGEM has light snow for the NYC area tomorrow night into Tuesday.

[MJO812]

GFS says what warmup for next weekend.

[Allsnow]

I think tonight's clipper could surprise some people in north central jersey and Long Island

[NEG NAO]

I think tonight's clipper could surprise some people in north central jersey and Long Island

looks like a coating to an inch or 2 - seems like every event that is frozen is a carbon copy of the previous  - this radar remind anyone of the previuous event(s) ?

 

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=default&region=SHD&animate=true

[MJO812]

I think tonight's clipper could surprise some people in north central jersey and Long Island

9z SREF shifted slightly more north. NYC is in the .10 contour while South-Central Jersey  gets a little more precip.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer&param=precip_p24&cycle=09ℑ=sref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_033_precip_p24.gif

[NEG NAO]

9z SREF shifted slightly more north. NYC is in the .10 contour while South-Central Jersey  gets a little more precip.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer&param=precip_p24&cycle=09ℑ=sref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_033_precip_p24.gif

most of south jersey has more snow so far this season then NYC - does that tell you something ?

[Allsnow]

most of south jersey has more snow so far this season then NYC - does that tell you something ?

It tells you they have benifited from this pattern. I feel this is the best a clipper look for us so far

[MJO812]

most of south jersey has more snow so far this season then NYC - does that tell you something ?

 

I'm fine with  a couple of dusting's to an inch snowfalls.

[NEG NAO]

ok guys started an obs and discuss topic for tonights into tomorows clipper

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39176-february-4-5-clipper-discussion-and-observations/

[Saturn510]

Instead of worrying how to disrupt hurricanes with man made resources, lets worry about creating north atlantic blocking. lol Tombo can create the worlds largest golf bunker near greenland and Allsnow can block everything with a super large snow plow. Anthony can use all the tylenol in his cvs to seed the atmosphere from the big headache.

[Allsnow]

Instead of worrying how to disrupt hurricanes with man made resources, lets worry about creating north atlantic blocking. lol Tombo can create the worlds largest golf bunker near greenland and Allsnow can block everything with a super large snow plow. Anthony can use all the tylenol in his cvs to seed the atmosphere from the big headache.

Lmao

[nzucker]

Was a bit surprised to see I only made it down to 20.8F last night. Currently 31/15 with mostly sunny skies in Westchester. 

[MJO812]

GFS has a brief warmup next week before cold air comes back.

[SnoSki14]

We might get one more shot at an actual snow event mid February as the -EPO returns. 

[TWCCraig]

We might get one more shot at an actual snow event mid February as the -EPO returns. 

 

12z GFS has a KU 360hrs out in fantasy land.

[SnoSki14]

12z GFS has a KU 360hrs out in fantasy land.

 

It's been consistent in showing a colder pattern near mid month and it actually had several fantasy storms in the long range, which I actually haven't seen much of so far this winter. The southern stream will get more active and if we enter a colder pattern around VDay or just after, then maybe we could get lucky. 

 

2008-2009 was a very nickel and dime winter and we lost out on any big threats until early March so it's possible that maybe we can get something late. It's only early February and until early April arrives, the threat of snow will exist. 

[uncle W]

today was the 10th day with a max 32 or lower...I didn't think it would make that mark but it did...Winters with less days below freezing have much less snow than the winters with many days below freezing...You don't have to be Einstein to know that...This is a list of the lowest and highest amounts of days with a max of 32 or lower and the snow fall for that season...

least amounts of max freezing days...Since 1930...

season...max 32 or lower...snowfall...

1952-53...............2.................15.1"

1997-98...............3...................5.5"

2001-02...............3...................3.5"

1931-32...............5...................5.3"

2007-08...............6.................11.9"

2011-12...............6...................7.4"

1990-91...............7.................24.9"

1992-93...............7.................24.5"

1974-75...............8.................13.1"

1948-49...............9.................46.6"

2005-06.............10.................40.0"

1936-37.............10.................15.6"

1986-87.............11.................23.1"

1996-97.............11.................10.0"

1994-95.............11.................11.8"

1949-50.............12.................13.8"

1930-31.............12.................11.6"

two of seventeen were above average......12 were less than average...two were near average...

winters with the most...

1976-77.............45.................24.5"

1977-78.............42.................50.7"

1935-36.............39.................33.2"

1933-34.............38.................52.0"

1947-48.............32.................63.2"

1993-94.............31.................53.4"

2002-03.............31.................49.3"

1980-81.............30.................19.4"

1995-96.............30.................75.6"

1983-84.............29.................25.4"

1962-63.............29.................16.3"

1939-40.............29.................25.7"

1942-43.............28.................29.5"

1944-45.............27.................27.1"

1960-61.............27.................54.7"

1969-70.............27.................25.6"

nine of sixteen were above average......two were less than average...five were near average...

today was the fifth straight day with a max 32 or lower bringing the total to 12...Still below average but closer to it...Since January 21st the average temperature is just below 30...The warmest years didn't have a 30 day period averaging 32.0 or lower...last year the coldest 30 days was 37.0...1997-98 holds the record with a coldest 30 days averaging 37.3...I think we could end up very close to the 32 degree mark for the period Jan. 21st to Feb. 19th...

1997-98.....37.3..

2011-12.....37.0..

1948-49.....36.3..

1931-32.....35.8..

2007-08.....35.7..

1952-53.....35.5..

2001-02.....35.4..

1936-37.....34.9..

1990-91.....34.5..

1932-33.....33.9..

1950-51.....33.0..

1974-75.....33.0..

1982-83.....32.9..

[Snow_Miser]

The GEFS are pretty sweet with the pattern from around days 7-8 onward.

 

[nzucker]

The pattern looks very favorable for below normal temperatures and snow opportunities as the -EPO builds in around Feb 16-18. I'm thinking Feb 18-20 is the last window this winter for an arctic outbreak, although colder than average temperatures should continue into the end of February/early March. We're finally starting to see signs of the -NAO that's been absent all winter.

 

With Friday's storm and a potentially snowy period starting around the 18th, we could make up any deficits in seasonal snowfall very quickly. 

[bluewave]

Tonight might be close as well but I think the low ends up around 21-22F. 850s drop to -14C at 9z on the GFS, and if skies stay clear, teens could be within reach. Central Park is at 28/15 with clear skies right now...

 

I think that you will end up being right about more readings below 20 for NYC. The forecast snow cover with

the Arctic high building down should lead to possible lows in the teens for NYC Sunday morning. Tonight looks

very close to 20 with a cold northerly flow.

[nzucker]

I think that you will end up being right about more readings below 20 for NYC. The forecast snow cover with

the Arctic high building down should lead to possible lows in the teens for NYC Sunday morning. Tonight looks

very close to 20 with a cold northerly flow.

NWS has a low of 14F in Dobbs Ferry, just north of NYC, for Sunday morning. We need the storm to deliver snow to the City, however, to achieve those below normal readings. Temperatures could be much more marginal at Central Park than in the elevated interior suburbs, where snow cover is virtually a lock after the Nor'easter. 

 

I think the last shot for readings in the teens will be in the February 16-20th time frame. That looks like the next shot of arctic air for the region. Once we reach March, it becomes increasingly difficult for the City to get into the teens, though March 1967 featured single digits at times. Mid-February is a good time for cold readings with snow cover and arctic air, however. 

[Snow_Miser]

The next storm system to watch for snow potential after this Friday's system will be a system around Valentine's day. The GEFS are hinting at this system and the ECMWF has also had this system:

[SACRUS]

First 5 days of Feb in the books (cold start)

 

 

NYC:

2/1: 31/24 (-5)

2/2:  29/19 (-9)

2/3:  30/24 (-6)

2/4:  30/23 (-7)

2/5:  32/28 (-4)

 

 

LGA:

2/1: 32/25 (-5)

2/2: 30/20 (-9)

2/3: 31/24 (-6)

2/4: 31/24 (-6)

2/5: 32/28 (-4)

 

JFK:

2/1: 33/24 (-4)

2/2: 31/20 (-7)

2/3: 32/22 (-6)

2/4: 32/24 (-5)

2/5: 32/28 (-4)

 

EWR:

2/1: 34/24 (-3)

2/2: 31/18 (-7)

2/3: 33/22 (-5)

2/4: 32/22 (-6)

2/5: 32/27 (-3)

 

TTN:

2/1: 31/22 (-5)

2/2: 29/17 (-9)

2/3: 31/22 (-6)

2/4: 30/21 (-6)

2/5: 33/27 (-2)