Allsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I almost missed it. It was on my doorstep when i looked at the radar and said to myself that's a healthy looking blob before looking out the window was nice to see while it lasted. Absolutely. Glad I caught it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The chances of a cold winter look just about shot with the warm spell at the end of January and all the models showing warmth past February 10th. We really need to make hay while the sun shines, as the pattern looks to turn increasingly unfavorable after the 2nd week of February. If I can pick up 10" of snow by mid-month, I'll be in a position to finish around average for snowfall with a fair March. My snowfall average is 38" and I've had 18" so far. I'm a little bit worried about March though (despite decent analogs) because of the recent tendency for torch in March and the CFS forecasts as well as what tropical forcing may do by late February. Yeah I've got zero hope for a snowy March at this point. If we can't get a decent/6"+ event in the next 10 days or so, it's probably lights out. Then again, knowing this year, we'll probably get a foot in mid April. The actual winter pattern looks mediocre at best the next few weeks with very limited NAO blocking and a rather progressive NPAC as well. Fast moving clippers embedded in the nern stream are favored, and those can occasionally produce some mdt amounts for us, moreso to our northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I also had some snow with that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Trace of snow today and 68 yesterday. Pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah I've got zero hope for a snowy March at this point. If we can't get a decent/6"+ event in the next 10 days or so, it's probably lights out. Then again, knowing this year, we'll probably get a foot in mid April. The actual winter pattern looks mediocre at best the next few weeks with very limited NAO blocking and a rather progressive NPAC as well. Fast moving clippers embedded in the nern stream are favored, and those can occasionally produce some mdt amounts for us, moreso to our northeast. The Euro weeklies do show a -NAO Week 3 and 4, but they've been doing that all year... Do you buy it? You see March as being a torch? I did look at some analogs with a dying weak +ENSO that faded towards Nina like 77-78, 03-04, and 04-05, and some of those years had decent March snows/cold. 51-52 was also a bit similar, and that year had a pretty cold March nationwide: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Trace of snow today and 68 yesterday. Pretty cool it was 67 yesterday and I just had a flurrie...Central Park was 61 this morning but I don't know if they saw any flakes...That doesn't happen often...Back on 2/2/1967 it was 58 in the am hours and wet snow in the evening hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 January will end up averaging around 35.0...max. of 61 and a min. of 11...Some years that started similar... season.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb..... 2012-13....41.5....35.1....??? 1971-72....40.8....35.1....31.4...la nina year...frequent snows and a near miss KU in Feb... 1979-80....41.1....33.7....31.4...neutral positive year...biggest snow came in mid March... 1990-91....42.6....34.9....40.0...neutral positive year...biggest snow came in late February... 1982-83....42.8....34.5....36.4...Strong el nino year...Biggest snowstorm in February was a KU event... 2011-12....43.3....37.3....40.9...la nina year...February and March were the warmest on record... 2006-07....43.6....37.5....28.2...el nino year...Feb. and Mar. sleet storms...very cold Feb.... 1994-95....42.2....37.5....31.6...el nino year...Feb. had a KU event... of the seven winters on the list two had very warm February's...Another above normal...four below normal...one very cold Feb. 2007...four snowy Febs...three not so snowy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 it was 67 yesterday and I just had a flurrie...Central Park was 61 this morning but I don't know if they saw any flakes...That doesn't happen often...Back on 2/2/1967 it was 58 in the am hours and wet snow in the evening hours... kind of march or april-like. flurries moved through here a little after 8pm. Its good to have several threats to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I bought a leftover 5 hp mtd snowthrower from last winter inventory great buy its the prince of darkness for winter.The last time i bought a machine was 94-95 winter thats my analog were toast but the next winter i had the last laugh see ya . peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 There are 3 clippers on the GFS. One for Sunday,Tuesday and Wednesday. Sunday looks like a 1-3 inch deal. Tuesday looks like a coating at best and Wednesday looks like a 1-3/2-4 inch deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GFS looks good for the Tuesday event There are 3 clippers on the GFS. One for Sunday,Tuesday and Wednesday. Sunday looks like a 1-3 inch deal. Tuesday looks like a coating at best and Wednesday looks like a 1-3/2-4 inch deal. Are you saying a coating at best is good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Are you saying a coating at best is good? He gets excited when he sees a sleet pellet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Are you saying a coating at best is good? I got the days mixed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Agree, it looks like a back and forth month, probably finishing slightly warmer than normal. The first 7-10 days or so will average cold, but nothing impressive, with moderation thereafter. Yeah, the warmer days usually end up tipping us into the above normal February temperature column in a Nina-like pattern. The only cold Februaries during the last decade have been during El Nino winters. Here's the February NYC temperature departures with the cold El Nino years bolded: 2012.....+5.6 2011.....+1.5 2010.....-1.4 2009.....+2.1 2008......+1.2 2007......-6.3 2006......+1.2 2005......+2.0 2004......+0.4 2003......-4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro has .21 precip for NYC with the clipper Tuesday night into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 NYC might struggle to get above freezing today...only 29F right now with cloudy skies and blustery NW flow. Virtually a lock to stay below freezing for the suburbs. Tomorrow should add another 32F max day as well with highs in the upper 20s across the region. Cold is definitely making a comeback after the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 NYC might struggle to get above freezing today...only 29F right now with cloudy skies and blustery NW flow. Virtually a lock to stay below freezing for the suburbs. Tomorrow should add another 32F max day as well with highs in the upper 20s across the region. Cold is definitely making a comeback after the cutter. This is pretty normal late Jan/early Feb weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The HRRR,RGEM and Rap has a lake effect streamer hitting our area later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro has nothing for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The HRRR,RGEM and Rap has a lake effect streamer hitting our area later on. Flurries here in Ramsey. Wind is ripping. Big cumulous clouds to my north. Reminds me of the summer time when I can see the convection building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Flurries here in Ramsey. Wind is ripping. Big cumulous clouds to my north. Reminds me of the summer time when I can see the convection building. I was just going to ask if anyone was having flurries. The radar is popping with widespread little cells. I haven't seen any flurries yet but a nice dark western sky could mean they are on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I was just going to ask if anyone was having flurries. The radar is popping with widespread little cells. I haven't seen any flurries yet but a nice dark western sky could mean they are on the way. Flurries here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Flizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Just had a little snowshower that dusted the ground a little bit here in Piscataway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Heavy snow here and very windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Heavy snow here and very windy. Getting it here as well. Ground getting coated quickly. Nice snow squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Light snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 2nd day in a row with a snow shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Cold start to February...high of 30.5F after a low of 17.1F. Friday had a high of 32.7F and a low of 22.0F. The models seem to be shortening the warm spell in mid-February with another shot of arctic air now forecast to reach the region between Feb 15-20 as ridging amplifies into the Gulf of Alaska and NW Canada. This month definitely has a good chance of being the coldest of the winter, discounting the frigid/snowy November we experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Cold start to February...high of 30.5F after a low of 17.1F. Friday had a high of 32.7F and a low of 22.0F. The models seem to be shortening the warm spell in mid-February with another shot of arctic air now forecast to reach the region between Feb 15-20 as ridging amplifies into the Gulf of Alaska and NW Canada. This month definitely has a good chance of being the coldest of the winter, discounting the frigid/snowy November we experienced. That isn't saying much... considering what has gone on this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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