SR Airglow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nice probably about .25 for MBY, so thats what 3-4"? If only it were tomorrow, but since it's still 4 days out, and especially with this winter, we know everything can and will happen! Don't get too excited yet, but cautiously optimistic. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Well we can say the following: 1) Tropical forcing so far this winter has blown chunks. And I've come to believe that the location and magnitude of OLR forcing in the tropical Pacific is highly connected/related to the mid latitude trough/ridge pattern. A certain forcing regime in the tropical Pacific will yield signalling that favors a certain north pacific pattern, and this can ultimately affect the north atlantic as well. I don't think it's a coincidence that many of our Aleutian trough winters also featured a -NAO. By nature of wavelenths, then Aleutian trough is correlated to the -NAO feature. good detective work... it's scary how many ways a winter can get tripped up. and makes all the more remarkable the amount of impressive events we've had in the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS and GGEM brought the clipper back for Tuesday http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro brings back the 2/5 event, sorta. By 144, a broad strung out low drops around 0.25 for the area, maybe a little more east. Looks similar to the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro has moderate snow for the area on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 the barrage of clippers from friday night onward until 162 really keeps the below normal temps and unsettled pattern in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 the barrage of clippers from friday night onward until 162 really keeps the below normal temps and unsettled pattern in place. The clippers are going to make up for there absents since 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 7 day avg of minus 5 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Cold next week on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 if this pattern comes to fruition then it'll be very difficult for the pacific to overwhelm, even though it eventually will. Looks like we go into a roughly 7-10 clipper pattern. Probably won't be amazing but cold with several snow chances isn't exactly terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyk Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 one more to watch for friday/sat 8th and 9th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Active pattern on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The 12z ECMWF also has a good bit of precip for the Tuesday/Wednesday system as well. 0.21" of precip by KTTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 This is a much more wintry pattern for most interests in our area than the one we had been in previously. It will be interesting to see if we can get a more moderate snowstorm, maybe with the negative height anomaly over Southeast Canada shifting westward a bit over time...but for now this looks like a developing lay-up of a few light snow events as individual nuances track south and east over the top of the ridge out west...and then east underneath PV to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS has the weak clipper reaching our area tomorrow. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_024_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS has the weak clipper reaching our area tomorrow. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_024_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Just saw that, maybe up to an inch in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Just saw that, maybe up to an inch in spots. Yep, especially in south-central Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS has the weak clipper reaching our area tomorrow. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_024_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif I'm not expecting much with that system tomorrow. Interesting that it has a small pocket of 0.1"+ right by Forked River though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Light snow falling here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The latest RAP model shows snow reaching NYC tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Dropped 30 degrees since 4 am this morning. Down to 26.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Typical February Nina-like pattern with cold alternating with warm for the first half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Typical February Nina-like pattern with cold alternating with warm for the first half of the month. M7D7.gif 2013013100_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png Agree, it looks like a back and forth month, probably finishing slightly warmer than normal. The first 7-10 days or so will average cold, but nothing impressive, with moderation thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Agree, it looks like a back and forth month, probably finishing slightly warmer than normal. The first 7-10 days or so will average cold, but nothing impressive, with moderation thereafter. The chances of a cold winter look just about shot with the warm spell at the end of January and all the models showing warmth past February 10th. We really need to make hay while the sun shines, as the pattern looks to turn increasingly unfavorable after the 2nd week of February. If I can pick up 10" of snow by mid-month, I'll be in a position to finish around average for snowfall with a fair March. My snowfall average is 38" and I've had 18" so far. I'm a little bit worried about March though (despite decent analogs) because of the recent tendency for torch in March and the CFS forecasts as well as what tropical forcing may do by late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Nice snow squall moving threw here atm. Edit Temp also plunged 4.5 degrees in 10 min as it came by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Nice snow squall moving threw here atm. Edit Temp also plunged 4.5 degrees in 10 min as it came by. Yeah here too, looked out the window and the ground is coated already and snowing pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah here too, looked out the window and the ground is coated already and snowing pretty good Just check the radar for giggles and was like wow. Nice band. Snowing currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Big flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wind makes it that much better. Plus this makes up for that band I missed last week to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Just check the radar for giggles and was like wow. Nice band. Snowing currently I almost missed it. It was on my doorstep when i looked at the radar and said to myself that's a healthy looking blob before looking out the window was nice to see while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.