NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 We also had fantasy storms on the models. Last winter there wasn't any yes but consider the other seasonal similarities - 2011 we had a hurricane then an early season october snowstormsame thing happened this season in early november- both followed by mild and low snowfall winters with above normal temp Januarys - and I do remember last february there were talks of storms one missed to the south - IF we end up with no snow in Feb and March with above normal temps this winter and last will match like book ends and the persistence in this pattern might make it happen - no indication that Feb or March will have below normal temps........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 yes but consider the other seasonal similarities - 2011 we had a hurricane then an early season october snowstorm same thing happened this season in early november- both followed by mild and low snowfall winters with above normal temp Januarys - and I do remember last february there were talks of storms one missed to the south - IF we end up with no snow in Feb and March with above normal temps this winter and last will match like book ends and the persistence in this pattern might make it happen - no indication that Feb or March will have below normal temps........... I wonder if there are any correlations between hurricanes up here and the proceeding winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not much difference for the Superbowl clipper on today's 12z euro for NYC. 0z run was .13" of precip Today's run is .10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 First two storms on 12z euro are meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 First two storms on 12z euro are meh what does the 2/5 Curly storm look like on the Euro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 what does the 2/5 Curly storm look like on the Euro ? It takes it through Northern pa. Then shredded before a flake falls in sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 what does the 2/5 Curly storm look like on the Euro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 12z CMC has a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Light snow on the euro for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 12z CMC has a coastal Just look at the ridge/trough alignment. That low would get sheared out to sea with a ridge axis over Rapid City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Upton has rain/snow for long island both Sunday and Tuesday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Clipper is back for Sunday http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_099_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Clipper is back for Sunday http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_099_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Ant if the GFS is right and these clippers centers are moving from Mich to Lake Placid and then off the coast of MASS , then these are nothing more than snow showers . Root the Euro on , its further south . otherwise , the GFS is a week of cold and dry with flurries. As I looked further , The Euro , Canadian and UKMET are well south of the forecast area , the GFS is all alone in bringing Sundays short wave through upstate NY , lets see who flinches first . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Could pick up a quick 1-4 if the euro ensembles verify for the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Euro ensemble mean also shows the clipper for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I agree with this Tues look ,,, Sundays SW get to Cape Cod on the Euro , after exiting the SNJ coast . The GFS may correct south over the next few days , its alone right now The UKMET is way overdone , but nuts , the Canadian is south as well . Could pick up a quick 1-4 if the euro ensembles verify for the 5th. 12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Euro ensemble mean also shows the clipper for Sunday The Euro UKMET and CMC look way diff than GFS - doesnt mean its wrong , just alone thats all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I agree with this Tues look ,,, Sundays SW get to Cape Cod on the Euro , after exiting the SNJ coast . The GFS may correct south over the next few days , its alone right now The UKMET is way overdone , but nuts , the Canadian is south as well . Maybe we can swing more of a coastal trough for Sunday with decent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Is winter supposed to end after next week because the long range doesn't look that way. I see a huge PNA ridge developing on the gfs for a few runs now actually. If that happens along with a gradually more active southern stream, then perhaps we're not done yet. And the MJO is supposed to get into 8-1-2 according to the Euro if I'm correct, which is pretty good for us. As much as I would love to throw in the towel for this winter, there's always been that feeling of "maybe something will happen" unlike last winter when we knew nothing remotely interesting would happen by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Is winter supposed to end after next week because the long range doesn't look that way. I see a huge PNA ridge developing on the gfs for a few runs now actually. If that happens along with a gradually more active southern stream, then perhaps we're not done yet. And the MJO is supposed to get into 8-1-2 according to the Euro if I'm correct, which is pretty good for us. As much as I would love to throw in the towel for this winter, there's always been that feeling of "maybe something will happen" unlike last winter when we knew nothing remotely interesting would happen by now. The GFS is showing the exact same thing in the 11-15 day range it was showing back around 1/1 or 1/5 when the Euro was showing a SE ridge, once again I think the Euro is doing the same from what I've read although I believe the last couple of runs its been backing off. The GFS definitely seems to have a better handle on the longer range this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Regardless of whether the MJO continues progressing into phase 1 or not, I think we're looking at maybe a 1-2 week window for potential to get a decent snowfall (and that's not guaranteed).I was doing a bit of research on OLR this evening, trying to find yet another factor that I can throw into the mix for future medium to long range outlooks. This winter proved that a negative AO alone isn't sufficient to get the Eastern US colder than normal, and it's not like the NAO was wildly positive either (it was near neutral). If one were to look at the index values for the past couple months up against the temp departures, one would probably think - what the hell caused this abortion to happen?Well we can say the following:1) Tropical forcing so far this winter has blown chunks. And I've come to believe that the location and magnitude of OLR forcing in the tropical Pacific is highly connected/related to the mid latitude trough/ridge pattern. A certain forcing regime in the tropical Pacific will yield signalling that favors a certain north pacific pattern, and this can ultimately affect the north atlantic as well. I don't think it's a coincidence that many of our Aleutian trough winters also featured a -NAO. By nature of wavelenths, then Aleutian trough is correlated to the -NAO feature.Furthermore, regarding the location of OLR anomalies, we like to see -OLR centered around the international dateline (180W). -OLR implies convective activtiy, and thus higher cloud tops, and less infrared radiation being emitted back into space. +OLR means suppression of convection, and therefore more infrared radiation sent outward.-OLR anomalies near the dateline is conducive to good winter patterns in the East. Not a coincidence that weak, west based El Ninos are generally gangbusters for our area. This is b/c the convection in weak/west Ninos is centered - guess where! - around the dateline of the Pacific. This sends off "shockwaves" to the NPAC pattern, setting up an Aleutian trough and possibly a downstream -NAO as well.Below is a composite of some of our snowiest winters of the past 20 years. Notice the yellow/red -OLR anomalies around the dateline.Here's our least snowy winters in the past 20 years. Note the blue/purple +OLR near the dateline.This December 2012's OLR has been poor as one can see by the +OLR around 180W.As a result, the Pacific forcing has generally favored the default Aleutian ridge/West Coast trough type regime (-PNA/+EPO).We had the -AO, but the NAO was not strong enough to overpower such a bad Pacific. In 2010-11, the NAO was of such an intensely negative magnitude that is overuled the unfavorable Pacific. Not the case obviously here.Going forward, the PNA signal is better than the first half of the winter, so we'll have more cold shots, but nothing to hold them in place w/o a real -NAO. This will make decent snow threats hard to come by as well. I'm thinking February will be the coolest month compared to Dec and Jan, but we'll probably still end up warmer than normal for Feb.The window of opportunity, I think, begins to close rapidly after the 2nd week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hr 87 light snow on gfs. For sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hr 93 light snow continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 How much? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hr 87 light snow on gfs. For sundayMuch better run. .10"+ for NYC. Vort stronger. Boston gets a very nice snowstorm from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 That's a nice look this far out, maybe it can trend even better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 .25+ for NYC, LI, all of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 .22" for NYC on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 .22" for NYC on GFS. All of LI is .25"-.35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Boston is .68". Good run from NYC to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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