IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 GFS is still showing some light snow on Sunday with the clipper system. And like just about every other clipper threat, it will be mainly flurries. Hope I'm wrong but that's the reality of clippers in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I actually think tomorrow's frontal passage will be the most interesting think in terms of meteorology in several weeks. There are several clippers and maybe one of them can overperform so that's our best hope right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I actually think tomorrow's frontal passage will be the most interesting think in terms of meteorology in several weeks. There are several clippers and maybe one of them can overperform so that's our best hope right now. I agree. Some real active weather, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I actually think tomorrow's frontal passage will be the most interesting think in terms of meteorology in several weeks. There are several clippers and maybe one of them can overperform so that's our best hope right now. our biggest snowfall last year was october 29th. and our biggest snowfall this year will likely be november 7th. that's some sick poop. (6.5" in e.bruns 11/7) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 6z GFS backed off on both the weekend and tuesday, how did the EURO look? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 6z GFS backed off on both the weekend and tuesday, how did the EURO look? -skisheep Just over 0.10" qpf for NYC on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Just over 0.10" qpf for NYC on Sunday. At this point i'll take it, thats how desparate I am! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Sunday and tues are going to b light events. If u are gona jump on looking for a KU event u r setting urself up for dissapointment. Starting friday its a 7 day period of minus 5 but that doesnt mean heavy snow. Its just not that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'm pretty sure winter is done. I've seen this before, back in 2001-2002 and I can tell it's over. You can PM me if any meaningful snowfall potential is imminent, I'll be off of the forums for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'm pretty sure winter is done. I've seen this before, back in 2001-2002 and I can tell it's over. You can PM me if any meaningful snowfall potential is imminent, I'll be off of the forums for a while. I don't think cold is done, but snowfall threats look few and far between. We're back in the 1950s cold PDO/-ENSO dry pattern with boring winters for the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I find it funny the models have basically lost the 2/6 storm, at least this time they did it right away and didn't wait til day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Is this a banter thread or a serious discussion? The 6z GFS keeps the 850 freezing line well south of the area until a WAA storm comes in around day 10, and then more big storm chances after that. And for the average you can take a look around hour 336. Big storm as part of the PV phases in. Too bad West coast ridging is non existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 At this point i'll take it, thats how desparate I am! -skisheep I will, too. Maybe the ratios could be somewhat on the high side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Is this a banter thread or a serious discussion? The 6z GFS keeps the 850 freezing line well south of the area until a WAA storm comes in around day 10, and then more big storm chances after that. And for the average you can take a look around hour 336. Big storm as part of the PV phases in. Too bad West coast ridging is non existent. There's always one part or another that's missing this winter, which causes any promising pattern to turn to diddly squat. And the "big storm chances" are always at day 10 or beyond, the hallmark of a horrendous winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'm pretty sure winter is done. I've seen this before, back in 2001-2002 and I can tell it's over. You can PM me if any meaningful snowfall potential is imminent, I'll be off of the forums for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Gfs is pretty meh for Friday and Sunday. All three events look like turds on the 00z and 06z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Gfs is pretty meh for Friday and Sunday. All three events look like turds on the 00z and 06z runs Euro look alright for the Sunday clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Euro look alright for the Sunday clipper. If the gfs was not performing so well I would be more excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 you can see the bias of the GFS well over the past couple days. It really likes to dig those northern stream vorts so much further south than what actually occurs (the 2/5 threat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The Euro is further back for Sundays light event .The GFS is further east with its trough axis , so Fri and Sun system slide south and develop east . The difference between the GFS and Euro is how far east does todays system deepen and how far does it pull the trough with it, and that has implications for any clipper thats gona fly through the flow . I wouldn`t even look at Tues until Sunday gets sorted. Fri - dead 1 down , 2 to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Gfs has some light snow Monday night from the 3rd clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Gfs has some light snow Monday night from the 3rd clipper Weak clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not enough digging, nonexistent southern stream, and little to no blocking. The best we will do is a few weak clipper with light snow. I'm about to throw in the towel because things are just not happening this season very much like last season and that's okay. You're going to have back to back bad winters from time to time, it's happened many times in the past so I don't have a problem with it. I'll take a couple more weeks of wintry like weather, cold and light snow, and then I'll gladly welcome Springlike weather 2nd half of February and so forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Gfs has some light snow Monday night from the 3rd clipper thats the 2/5 Curly storm - here is his reaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The Euro is further back for Sundays light event .The GFS is further east with its trough axis , so Fri and Sun system slide south and develop east . The difference between the GFS and Euro is how far east does todays system deepen and how far does it pull the trough with it, and that has implications for any clipper thats gona fly through the flow . I wouldn`t even look at Tues until Sunday gets sorted. Fri - dead 1 down , 2 to go The GFS is just clueless right now on the Sunday event, it cannot figure out at all how it wants to put those pieces together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The GFS is just clueless right now on the Sunday event, it cannot figure out at all how it wants to put those pieces together.3 stooges storms - nuk nuk nuk or nothing nothing nothing - winter 2012 - 2013 is officially on life support unfortunately - the best analog for this winter is last winter 2011/2012 - never got rid of the 2011/2012ish feeling.........check these numbers out very close to last wintershttp://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.NYC.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 3 stooges storms - nuk nuk nuk or nothing nothing nothing - winter 2012 - 2013 is officially on life support unfortunately - the best analog for this winter is last winter 2011/2012 - never got rid of the 2011/2012ish feeling.........check these numbers out very close to last winters http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.NYC.KOKX.html At least we had cold shots this winter. Last winter was just terrible. 2012-2013 > 2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 At least we had cold shots this winter. Last winter was just terrible. 2012-2013 > 2011-2012 man - you are really splitting hairs - yes we had one stretch of very cold weather but the total degree days for January and the season since dec 1 is not that much different plus NYC has slightly less snow so far then last year - find a better analog so far............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 man - you are really splitting hairs - yes we had one stretch of very cold weather but the total degree days for January and the season since dec 1 is not that much different plus NYC has slightly less snow so far then last year - find a better analog so far............. We also had fantasy storms on the models. Last winter there wasn't any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 MJO on the Euro goes through phase 8-1-2 while the GEFS stalls it out in 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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