Snow_Miser Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Days 11-15. Raging PAC and se ridge Okay, thanks for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The MJO is actually different in February, than Dec and Jan. Phase 8 seems to be only cold and stormy phase for us. Phase 1, which Euro ensembles have us going to after next week, actually correlates to below noraml 500m heights, over the Western and Central US: ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif phases 2-3 are the cold phases for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 This cold shot looks in and out and then winter is officially over. In my opinion this was worst than last year If there really is no more snow this season, it would be worse than last year in concrete numbers back home... 7.6" this year versus 9.3" last year. But its not over yet and I think there is still some accumulating snow to be had, even if its not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Days 11-15. Raging PAC and se ridge Days 11-15. Enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Gfs has some light snow friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 This cold shot looks in and out and then winter is officially over. In my opinion this was worst than last year Last year was way worse, at least this year the heavy November snow reached the coast. Last October gave me about a coating and then we had about 2" on January 21st? before it went to rain. That was literally it for that whole winter. Even 01-02 was better for the south shore of Long Island. We had 4.5" last week, and about 6", maybe more on November 7th, making it about 11" total. I don't see much hope for a Nor'easter with this pattern, but it's impossible to rule out at least minor events. And I'm reluctant to brand winter "over" on January 30. I'd probably give it about until President's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 18Z GFS has another good run for the clipper on 2/5 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Should we separate out the 2/1, 2/3 and 2/5 threats into their own threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Should we separate out the 2/1, 2/3 and 2/5 threats into their own threads? I think so. It looks like an inch or so is possible with the 2/1 and 2/3 threats and maybe a bit more for the 2/5 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Should we separate out the 2/1, 2/3 and 2/5 threats into their own threads? No because HPC basically discounts all of them http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 No because HPC basically discounts all of them http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd I think we should make a thread for the events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 nick Gregory has snow showers sat night going to rain showers on Sun with a high of 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 With all due respect HPC and they are very good, but 4 days before last Fridays event they painted the forecast area with .50 - .75 qpf , and as the models backed off , so did they . The HPC piece was written ( 1018 ) AM before the 12z models came out and I would imagine if the 0z runs still show 1 or 2 poss light events they will be inclined to include them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif . They see the Sun clipper . What it amounts too , will be sorted . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 We should make a thread for every flake that falls from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 We should make a thread for every flake that falls from the sky. Well there was a thread for Monday's "event"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Should we separate out the 2/1, 2/3 and 2/5 threats into their own threads?ok I agree now we should make up 3 individual threads - we can call them the 3 Stooges events and just like the Weather Channel we will give them individual names2/1 = Larry 2/3 = Moe 2/5 = Curly I dare anyone here to create these - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 ok I agree now we should make up 3 individual threads - we can call them the 3 Stooges events and just like the Weather Channel we will give them individual names 2/1 = Larry 2/3 = Moe 2/5 = Curly I dare anyone here to create these - lol I`m in for Moe and Curly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If I had to pick one , I would prob thnk next weeks system has the better promise . That being said I dont like midweek snowstorms ( WEEKENDS ) tend to work better for us , so im sure at best its a light to mod event , if it happens ! But what I do like is , it likes to snow on the back end of colder periods and this winter has been so brutal that if it does snow next week the trough pulls out and its in the 50`s next weekend , and everyone will cry because the snow melted so fast . I am almost rooting that scenerio on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 ok I agree now we should make up 3 individual threads - we can call them the 3 Stooges events and just like the Weather Channel we will give them individual names 2/1 = Larry 2/3 = Moe 2/5 = Curly I dare anyone here to create these - lol Clever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Only 50 days until first day of spring. Don't worry your suffering will be over soon. Well I know next winter can not be any worse than these 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Only 50 days until first day of spring. Don't worry your suffering will be over soon. Well I know next winter can not be any worse than these 2 winters. Really? I can think of two triple sombreros In my lifetime. 1990,91 and 92 and 1997,98 and 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Many SREF members at 21z now showing big storms for Southern New England and light to moderate event (especially based on this winters standards) at 66 hours...I'd watch this one carefully. I count 9 members on the 21z SREF that develop a compact surface low near Block Island and towards Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 ok I agree now we should make up 3 individual threads - we can call them the 3 Stooges events and just like the Weather Channel we will give them individual names 2/1 = Larry 2/3 = Moe 2/5 = Curly I dare anyone here to create these - lol I fully support this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 ok I agree now we should make up 3 individual threads - we can call them the 3 Stooges events and just like the Weather Channel we will give them individual names 2/1 = Larry 2/3 = Moe 2/5 = Curly I dare anyone here to create these - lol lol...poor Shemp is always left out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Nam has some light snow for snj friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Nam has some light snow for snj friday Still not jumping on the SREFs idea, thats somewhat unusual...the WRF NMM has something its last 2 runs and even the damn CRAS shows it, if the GFS jumps on board here in the next 2 runs or so I'll start really believing it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Still not jumping on the SREFs idea, thats somewhat unusual...the WRF NMM has something its last 2 runs and even the damn CRAS shows it, if the GFS jumps on board here in the next 2 runs or so I'll start really believing it... Gfs has some very light snow in snj. Does not look like srefs at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The 21z SREF's shifted north from 15z runs and less amplified. Doesn't start to deepen until near Cape Cod on 21z, compared to deepening beginning at LI on the 15z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 GFS is still showing some light snow on Sunday with the clipper system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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