Cold Start to February

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

found this article on historic snowstorms and the 61 storm is a fit for this winter - scroll down 3/4 of the page for the map description of storm below

 

http://berkswintercast.tripod.com/id85.html

 

Again another fairly north 850 low track, originally in northern Ohio as the transfer occurred so did a track of the 850 from western VA across central Delmarva and east out to sea. Axis of heaviest snow was much further north in this case 350 miles or so north.

With relatively “bad” track of the low’s the higher was very strong at an avg. of 1043 tied for 2nd highest in this study, and even looped southwestward once it reached coastal Canada.

Supplemental

- ENSO was neutral after a weak La Nina had ended recently

- NAO state was by and large neutral this whole winter and didn’t feature strong positive or negative signals, as too was the case for this storm

 

 

I think you found the perfect fit this the month. Now let's see if this will truly come into fruition.

[uncle W]

the February 1961 storm did change to sleet freezing rain and plain rain briefly...There was 2.7" of water and 18" of snow and sleet...

[NEG NAO]

12Z Euro has an interesting look to it at day 9 - 850's are very cold

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif

[nzucker]

the February 1961 storm did change to sleet freezing rain and plain rain briefly...There was 2.7" of water and 18" of snow and sleet...

 

 

I think it was all snow here....Dobbs Ferry had 22.2" if the co-op is correct, and maybe a bit  more at my house in the hills than downtown since there was some marginality. The seasonal total for the 60-61 winter was 90" here in Southern Westchester, the snowiest season since records began at the co-op in 1947. Dobbs Ferry received 18" in the Dec and Jan Nor'easters, and then 24" in the biggest storm in early February.  The stretch from 1/20 to 2/5 was absolutely epic here that winter..

 

Date............Snowfall........Snow Depth......Max.......Min

1/20............18"................25"...................19...........8

1/21............0"..................23"...................20...........3

1/22............0"..................20"...................20..........,2

1/23...........0.5"................19".................. 19...........6

1/24...........2.7".................22"...................23..........9

1/25...........0"....................20"...................17..........3

1/26..........0.8"..................20"...................20..........8

1/27..........1.7"..................20"...................20..........9

1/28..........0"....................19"....................22..........7

1/29..........0"....................18"....................29.........10

1/30..........0"....................18"....................24.........11

1/31..........T.....................17"....................27.........13

2/1...........0".....................17"....................25..........7

2/2...........0"......................17"...................16..........-5

2/3...........0.3"...................17"...................24..........1

2/4..........21.7"..................33"...................32..........24

2/5..........0.2"....................32"...................35..........18

 

That's 16 straight days with a max 32F or lower, and 9 nights in a row with single digit lows. The snow depth of 33" is the deepest I've found in town records, and I'm sure there was more in the wooded areas behind my house at 400' elevation. Getting down to -5F in Dobbs Ferry is also no small achievement, especially considering it came in a period of nearly 400 hours below freezing. The snowfall of 45.9" in 2 weeks beats the epic stretches of January 2011 and February 2010. The sustained cold and snowpack was also more impressive than January 2011, when my lowest minimum was 2.8F and my deepest snowpack around 25-26". 

[NEG NAO]

18Z GFS has the weekend clipper further south

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06132.gif

 

Then it has the feb 5th clipper stronger then the weekend one  coming through here

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12192.gif

[TWCCraig]

18Z GFS has the weekend clipper further south

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06132.gif

 

Then it has the feb 5th clipper stronger then the weekend one  coming through here

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12192.gif

 

Hope that second one doesn't become a cutter eventually.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

18Z GFS has the weekend clipper further south

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06132.gif

Then it has the feb 5th clipper stronger then the weekend one coming through here

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12192.gif

With the West Coast ridge axis further east for the 5th, I highly doubt there'll be a GLC.

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS still has the 2/5 clipper taking a perfect track for the metro with several inches of snow - 2nd run in a row and 3rd out of 4th run - waiting for the Euro to chime in

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county168.gif

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

12Z GFS still has the 2/5 clipper taking a perfect track for the metro with several inches of snow - 2nd run in a row and 3rd out of 4th run - waiting for the Euro to chime in

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county168.gif

This run makes a lot of sense, given the axis of the ridge is over the Rockies.

[Weathergun]

This run makes a lot of sense, given the axis of the ridge is over the Rockies.

 

The weekend clipper bombing out over Canadian Maritimes on the GFS, also helps. It becomes a 50/50 low for Feb 5-6th storm.

[bluewave]

We just need the Euro ensembles to shift a little further south.

 

[SnoSki14]

If it wasn't for our bad luck this winter, we'd have 3 solid shots at snow, first at day 3, then day 5, and then the 2/5 storm. Each one is stronger than the last as well.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The weekend clipper bombing out over Canadian Maritimes on the GFS, also helps. It becomes a 50/50 low for Feb 5-6th storm.

Let's see if this will hold up well.

[Kaner587]

there are a couple major changes on the GFS from 12z yesterday to 12z today that made the 2/5 threat possible. We need the euro (and other major models) to pick up on some of these before we get excited.

[Dsnowx53]

With the MJO being favorable, it is conceivable that we'll have enough ridging out west in a favorable position to force our shortwave to dig southward and actually amplify, rather than stay puny and flat. We also have PV "remnants", similar to last Friday's event and the fact that there will be smaller disturbances bombing out to reinforce the suppression, also similar to last Friday's event.

[Kaner587]

With the MJO being favorable, it is conceivable that we'll have enough ridging out west in a favorable position to force our shortwave to dig southward and actually amplify, rather than stay puny and flat. We also have PV "remnants", similar to last Friday's event and the fact that there will be smaller disturbances bombing out to reinforce the suppression, also similar to last Friday's event.

I would be inclined to say that these two threats will play out similarly to the last several as this season has featured tracks that favor snow, but its too warm at the coast, or PV suppressing the hell out of anything. Finally, we lost the suppressive PV, have enough cold air in place, a favorable track (seemingly, if the GFS is right at least) and a favorable MJO phase with a west coast ridge. I think 1-3 is a good bet for the first clipper, and the 2nd storm has the most potential, maybe so far this season. I hope I didn't speak to soon, but I agree with you about the difference we have with these threats coming up.

[Kaner587]

euro looks better for the sunday clipper, and it starts to bomb out as it moves away. Not sure if its enough yet to make a major difference for the 2/5 threat, as the 144h euro looks a good amount different with the northern stream s/w than the GFS does.

[Kaner587]

Euro looks slightly better for 2/5 threat but the s/w ends up moving north of us it appears, although there may be some precip from overrunning it doesn't look at all similar to the GFS solution.

[Kaner587]

the euro seems to be doing something similar to the cmc...drives the initial s/w north of us but another one drops down from western canada behind it. At 168 there is a clipper/low in the plains

 

edit: looks completely different than the CMC because whatever energy dives down is getting squashed and there is nothing more than light precip with it by 180.

[bluewave]

It looks like we are only going to get a brief window of below normal temperatures during the 

first week of February before the temperatures begin moderating by day 10.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jm1220]

It looks like we are only going to get a brief window of below normal temperatures during the 

first week of February before the temperatures begin moderating by day 10.

 

D10.gif

 

12zeurohourly850mbTempAnomalyNA240.gif

Not what we want to see in terms of a sustained winter pattern. A lot can change by day 10 but if we go into mid-Feb under a warm pattern, that spells big trouble for the remainder of winter if we stay under a Nina-esque regime.

[bluewave]

Not what we want to see in terms of a sustained winter pattern. A lot can change by day 10 but if we go into mid-Feb under a warm pattern, that spells big trouble for the remainder of winter if we stay under a Nina-esque regime.

 

It's just too easy for the SE Ridge to return again in 10 days with the active Pacific Jet

carving out another trough in the West. The only cold Februaries here in the last decade

have been during El Ninos. So a return to milder after the first week of February makes

sense.

 

 

Here's the February NYC temperature departures with the cold El Nino years bolded:

 

2012.....+5.6

2011.....+1.5

2010.....-1.4

2009.....+2.1

2008......+1.2

2007......-6.3

2006......+1.2

2005......+2.0

2004......+0.4

2003......-4.5

 

 

[Neblizzard]

It's just too easy for the SE Ridge to return again in 10 days with the active Pacific Jet

carving out another trough in the West. The only cold Februaries here in the last decade

have been during El Ninos. So a return to milder after the first week of February makes

sense.

Here's the February NYC temperature departures with the cold El Nino years bolded:

2012.....+5.6

2011.....+1.5

2010.....-1.4

2009.....+2.1

2008......+1.2

2007......-6.3

2006......+1.2

2005......+2.0

2004......+0.4

2003......-4.5

12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif

Looks like the Atlantic becomes favorable and the Pacific just goes to crap. It's been that kind of winter.

[Allsnow]

Euro ensembles are basically saying winter is over after next week

[jm1220]

Euro ensembles are basically saying winter is over after next week

Good-let it be over. I'd rather an awful winter be done with and out sooner rather than stringing us along.

 

The MJO staying in a favorable phase could at least cause the trough to stay over the East, but that's no assurance there will be any kind of storminess.

[Snow_Miser]

Euro ensembles are basically saying winter is over after next week

Where does this give an impression that it's over?

 

[NorEaster27]

This cold shot looks in and out and then winter is officially over. In my opinion this was worst than last year

[Allsnow]

Where does this give an impression that it's over?

Days 11-15. Raging PAC and se ridge

[Allsnow]

This cold shot looks in and out and then winter is officially over. In my opinion this was worst than last year

Yeah January 21st was a okay storm. This winter outside nov, I have not had a storm above 1.5

[Weathergun]

The MJO is actually different in February, than Dec and Jan. Phase 8 seems to be only cold and stormy phase for us. Phase 1, which Euro ensembles have us going to after next week, actually correlates to below noraml 500m heights, over the Western and Central US: