Cold Start to February

[SACRUS]

Guidance has been setady in showing the west coast ridge breaking down and subsequently sending a strong storm cutting into the Lakes the middle/end (1//29 - 1/31) of next week followed by a strong front into the east coast. This period should see a reboud to normal and above normal temps before the front clears late next week (2/1), followed by another arctic airmass. The GFS (fwiw) has been consistent in showing a very robust system along this front with significant qpf. While not likely, this could trend colder and perhaps produce a mix or wintry threat. Beyond there the ridge looks to rebuild into the west with a deeper trough into the east by early Feb. With ample cold and a deep trough, the first week or so of Feb could offer the best potential for a storm. Now all we need is some increased energy....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

Figure it would be good to track any potential threats in the 2/1 - 2/10 timeframe.

[MJO812]

CPC

[uofmiami]

Probably continue the cold & dry/warm & wet pattern.  Does CPC have a 8-14 precip outlook as well?

[MJO812]

Probably continue the cold & dry/warm & wet pattern.  Does CPC have a 8-14 precip outlook as well?

 

Above normal

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Above normal

Badabababaaaaa!!!! I'm lovin' it!!!

[SACRUS]

Latest guidance continues to keep the first half of Feb cold in the east, despite the lack of favorable blocking.  After a few days of warmer temps, Feb should come in colder than normal and remain on the cooler side through the first week and beyond.

 

While today's gfs and ecm lost the ground hogs day storm by keeping the pattern progressive,  there still is some potential between 2/2 and 2/8 with enough digging of the trough for one of  multiple clipper systems to deepen for our area..  

 

 

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS6-10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif

[rcad1]

So far Upton doesn't really have my area that cold the first couple days of Feb.. They have me cold for sat but then back to the upper 30's by sun!!!!

[NorEaster27]

I see average to only slightly below

[PB GFI]

I see average to only slightly below

Lol. That was ur exact sentiments before this 7 day cold snap that gave us a week of 12 below. U should refrain from predicting temp departures bro

[bluewave]

It looks like the GFS early guess is that the first week of February will average -3 to -6 below normal.

While it still appears to be a fast moving clipper pattern, maybe we can get one with some more amplitude

than we just got on Friday.

 

[PB GFI]

It looks like the GFS early guess is that the first week of February will average -3 to -6 below normal.

While it still appears to be a fast moving clipper pattern, maybe we can get one with some more amplitude

than we just got on Friday.

 

[url=http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=86634]M7D11.gif[/url

Yeh, thought this morning minus 5 for 5 to 7 days. Think any storminess however is after that period.

[uncle W]

there have been a few chity winters with one or two good weeks...1974-75, 1985-86 and 1994-95 had a good first two weeks of February after a disappointing December andJanuary ...1982-83 was another winter with a good first couple of weeks but one of those storms was a KU...

[bluewave]

there have been a few chity winters with one or two good weeks...1974-75, 1985-86 and 1994-95 had a good first two weeks of February after a disappointing December andJanuary ...1982-83 was another winter with a good first couple of weeks but one of those storms was a KU...

 

It seems like our February KU's were either during an El Nino, or following an above normal 

snowfall December in another ENSO phase. The Nino winters really didn't need the snow

in December to produce a KU in February. The last Nina-like pattern to produce a KU

in February was 2006 with above normal December snow and below normal temps.

It's really tough to get a KU in a February like this one after  the cold PDO Nina-like

mild and snowless December. We usually get either light February events or a moderate

event maxing out around 6-7 inches in these situations. 

[SnowGoose69]

This winter is playing out so similarly to 96-97, not so much across the majority of the nation but here it sure is.  We had the -AO/NAO in December with no real cold or snow both times, the reversal in January with the one minor snow event and now likely the first 2 weeks of February cold with chances.  Remember we had the 2/8/97 event over a weekend with a coastal that was just a bit too offshore with marginal temps but 2-4 fell in alot of places, we then had the major bust a couple of Sunday nights later where we had WSWs issued Sat aftn for a redeveloping clipper off the Delmarva but the 00Z runs came in Sat night and squashed the party and the watches were dropped a few hours later.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1997/us0208.php

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1997/us0217.php

[weathafella]

This winter is playing out so similarly to 96-97, not so much across the majority of the nation but here it sure is.  We had the -AO/NAO in December with no real cold or snow both times, the reversal in January with the one minor snow event and now likely the first 2 weeks of February cold with chances.  Remember we had the 2/8/97 event over a weekend with a coastal that was just a bit too offshore with marginal temps but 2-4 fell in alot of places, we then had the major bust a couple of Sunday nights later where we had WSWs issued Sat aftn for a redeveloping clipper off the Delmarva but the 00Z runs came in Sat night and squashed the party and the watches were dropped a few hours later.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1997/us0208.php

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1997/us0217.php

I remember that winter as being cold in January but spectacularly warm in February before getting wintry in march. Of course for my part of the world, the April fools blizzard was as good as it gets.

[SnowGoose69]

I remember that winter as being cold in January but spectacularly warm in February before getting wintry in march. Of course for my part of the world, the April fools blizzard was as good as it gets.

 

That was the classic big late spring storm that almost always seems to occur when we transition from La Nina to El Nino, unfortunately does not look like we'll get it this year.

[SnoSki14]

That was the classic big late spring storm that almost always seems to occur when we transition from La Nina to El Nino, unfortunately does not look like we'll get it this year.

 

Why can't we? I read these statements way too often, "does not look likely", "I doubt we'll get it this year". Those are very generic statements and unless you're psychic I don't see how anyone can say that like that are 100% sure it can't happen. 

 

I'm sure many back in early to mid October would have said the same thing about a Sandy like storm because that couldn't happen this year, right?

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

1994-1995 was the only exception. Snowless December, followed by a Snowy February. I think that season was La Nina.

[Isotherm]

I don't think we're going to get a KU event in this pattern, so I agree with bluewave on probably 6-8" being the maximum attainable for a single storm in this regime. It's too progressive with zero blocking in the north atlantic, thus there's nothing to really slow down a s/w and bomb it along the mid atlantic coast. This is a pattern where we'll have to watch out for redeveloping, quick hitting Miller B type clippers that favor SE New England, and maybe SWFE or overrunning events, all situations which generally yield light to moderate snowfalls. With that being said I think I speak for most when I say we'd be more than happy with a moderate snowfall.

 

I'll be glad to eat crow if we get a KU. Until we get some real NAO blocking or a 50/50 low I doubt it.

[famartin]

1994-1995 was the only exception. Snowless December, followed by a Snowy February. I think that season was La Nina.

 

No, that was a weak/mod El Nino.  And really, it was one big storm in February and a few minor events.  Very minor.  It was essentially a 1 storm winter.

[NorEaster27]

93 94

[weathafella]

93 94

81 years to the centennial.

[SnowGoose69]

No, that was a weak/mod El Nino.  And really, it was one big storm in February and a few minor events.  Very minor.  It was essentially a 1 storm winter.

 

It was strange how the El Ninos during the 80s and 90s mostly screwed us but the ones since have generally helped.

[SnowGoose69]

I don't think we're going to get a KU event in this pattern, so I agree with bluewave on probably 6-8" being the maximum attainable for a single storm in this regime. It's too progressive with zero blocking in the north atlantic, thus there's nothing to really slow down a s/w and bomb it along the mid atlantic coast. This is a pattern where we'll have to watch out for redeveloping, quick hitting Miller B type clippers that favor SE New England, and maybe SWFE or overrunning events, all situations which generally yield light to moderate snowfalls. With that being said I think I speak for most when I say we'd be more than happy with a moderate snowfall.

 

I'll be glad to eat crow if we get a KU. Until we get some real NAO blocking or a 50/50 low I doubt it.

 

I don't know the numbers, Tony who posts in the Philly forum has listed them before but the chances for a KU event or storm over 10 inches in Philly are remarkably low in a La Nina winter and I think if you add in a NAO that is not negative its next to zero.  I think that the 12/26/10 storm may have been Philly's biggest ever in a Nina winter.....of course NYC is not exactly the same but its similar.  You tend to get tons of near misses in La Nina winters where phases just miss or happen too late.  It seem the Cape and middle portion of the Middle Atlantic tend to do well in La Nina winters as they sort of are ground zero for late phased or suppressed northern stream waves.

[famartin]

 I think that the 12/26/10 storm may have been Philly's biggest ever in a Nina winter.....

It may have been, until a month later.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

It was strange how the El Ninos during the 80s and 90s mostly screwed us but the ones since have generally helped.

I believe it was mainly due to a Overwhelming +PDO/El Nino signal combination for the 80s and 90s.

[MJO812]

GFS and Euro show the same thing

[uncle W]

It seems like our February KU's were either during an El Nino, or following an above normal 

snowfall December in another ENSO phase. The Nino winters really didn't need the snow

in December to produce a KU in February. The last Nina-like pattern to produce a KU

in February was 2006 with above normal December snow and below normal temps.

It's really tough to get a KU in a February like this one after  the cold PDO Nina-like

mild and snowless December. We usually get either light February events or a moderate

event maxing out around 6-7 inches in these situations. 

 

the list of indices for NYC 10" snowfalls...AO/PNA/NAO/Enso...

seven la nina storms...six neutral negative...thirteen el nino...four neutral plus...

snowstorm...date......AO......PNA......NAO......Enso/MEI....

12" 03/18/1956....0.470....0.186.....-0.225.....La Nina

12" 03/20/1958...-2.522....0.067.....-0.830.....El Nino

14" 12/21/1959....1.266....0.114......1.032.....Neutral-

15" 03/03/1960...-1.265...-0.834......0.249.....Neutral-

15" 12/11/1960...-0.343....1.527.....-0.316.....Neutral-

10" 01/19/1961...-1.506....1.587......0.392.....Neutral-

18" 02/03/1961....0.621....0.489.....-0.126.....Neutral-

13" 01/12/1964....0.385....0.654.....-1.180.....Weak El Nino

15" 02/06/1967....1.180....0.732......0.230.....Weak La Nina

15" 02/09/1969...-3.114...-0.325......0.044.....Weak El Nino

14" 01/19/1978...-0.347....0.262......0.230.....Weak El Nino

18" 02/06/1978...-3.014....1.188.....-0.093.....Weak El Nino

13" 02/19/1979...-0.697...-0.042......0.254.....Neutral+

18" 02/11/1983...-1.806....0.845.....-0.567.....El Nino

10" 03/13/1993....0.764...-0.179......0.472.....Weak El Nino

13" 02/11/1994...-0.862...-0.454......0.927.....Neutral+

11" 02/04/1995....1.429....1.604......0.437.....El Nino

20" 01/08/1996...-1.200....0.447.....-0.392.....Weak La Nina

11" 02/16/1996....0.163...-0.421......0.534.....Weak La Nina

12" 12/30/2000...-2.354....1.075.....-0.537.....Weak La Nina

20" 02/16/2003....0.128....0.681......0.836.....El Nino

14" 12/05/2003....0.265....0.784.....-0.197.....Neutral+

10" 01/25/2004...-1.686....0.164.....-0.541.....Neutral+

14" 01/25/2005....0.356....1.098.....-0.035.....El Nino

27" 02/11/2006...-0.156....1.658......0.136.....Neutral-

11" 12/19/2009...-3.413....0.549.....-1.833.....El Nino

10" 02/09/2010...-4.266....0.622.....-1.136.....El Nino

21" 02/25/2010...-3.818....0.087.....-0.219.....El Nino

20" 12/26/2010...-2.631...-0.284.....-0.834.....La Nina

19" 01/26/2011...-1.683....1.233.....-0.142.....La Nina         

[SACRUS]

GFS and Euro show the same thing

today's 12z gfs still has the 2/5 - 2/6 storm (offshore) but the still there none the less. Agani we need the trough the sharpen up a bit in this progressive pattern, the cold is there...

[NEG NAO]

found this article on historic snowstorms and the 61 storm is a fit for this winter - scroll down 3/4 of the page for the map description of storm below

 

http://berkswintercast.tripod.com/id85.html

 

Again another fairly north 850 low track, originally in northern Ohio as the transfer occurred so did a track of the 850 from western VA across central Delmarva and east out to sea. Axis of heaviest snow was much further north in this case 350 miles or so north.



With relatively “bad” track of the low’s the higher was very strong at an avg. of 1043 tied for 2nd highest in this study, and even looped southwestward once it reached coastal Canada.

Supplemental
- ENSO was neutral after a weak La Nina had ended recently
- NAO state was by and large neutral this whole winter and didn’t feature strong positive or negative signals, as too was the case for this storm