usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/roller-coaster-ride-warm-up-next-week-then-cold-may-return-in-early-feb/2013/01/24/506bdc98-6657-11e2-85f5-a8a9228e55e7_blog.html#pagebreak What I didn't mention is that there were two analogs that produced over 3 inches of snow. One produced over a foot at ADW and 6.8 at DCA. I ended up with 12 inches in mby. This shows how you can get a pretty decent snow despite having a less than optimal mean vortex placement. A northern stream system digs way far south and induces a wave on the coast. This system had snow to liquid ratios of 20-1 in the dc area. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0216.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'll pretend I'm ian for a second....Feb gonna be rockin! My weenie analysis says you have a high chance at verification on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Got it: Wes forecasting a 6-12" storm for early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You think the next cold shot will be as cold or less cold? I'd lean toward less myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 You think the next cold shot will be as cold or less cold? I'd lean toward less myself. I think less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Got it: Wes forecasting a 6-12" storm for early Feb. I only saw 1996 in his link... so I am sure he is forecasting another Jan 1996 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I think less this is all part of my coping mechanism. as long as the worst is behind us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Got it: Wes forecasting a 6-12" storm for early Feb. That's why I left the analog out of the article. I'm sure someone would make that very dubious jump. Only 1 out of the 10 analogs had such a storm in their window. Not great odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 That's why I left the analog out of the article. I'm sure someone would make that very dubious jump. Only 1 out of the 10 analogs had such a storm in their window. Not great odds. So you're saying there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 So you're saying there's a chance. Sure but it's probably below 10% by quite a bit. The euro upper low hanging back is interesting if the pattern relaxed enough for something to drop in behind it. I suspect if an upper low is down there that the models will start bringing it northward to make sure we have another potential forecast bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Just curious, how did you find these matching analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 So you're saying there's a chance. I just got to the the center date of each analog and then give it 3 days on each side of it and then look up the snow stats for those 10 periods on the DCA snowfall data. To know for sure whether the number of dates is above the climo pops or not I really should look at all years for the the time of year that the forecast is for but that is too much work though I guess it wouldn't be if I used just the data since 1950. I may do that the next time I do an article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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