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January 25-26 Flurries Part II


Mr Torchey

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PI think most areas south of the Pike will tickle an inch out of this. Even with .07 that should easily be an inch. But I don't see 2 inches

Snow growth being awful, I think an inch would be tough to do.  Monday night, it snowed steadily here for 4 straight hours and all I got was 3/4 of an inch.  I could see tonight being somewhat similar.

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Snow growth being awful, I think an inch would be tough to do.  Monday night, it snowed steadily here for 4 straight hours and all I got was 3/4 of an inch.  I could see tonight being somewhat similar.

 

We'll see, HRRR verbatim is maybe a quarter to a half or so for everyone.  Flurries or a period of light snow is about it.

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I know NOAA has to stay within specific ranges so D-2 wouldn't work, but I otherwise agree with this map.  Maybe Kev and some of the high areas out west squeeze out a little more?

 

 

Exactly, regionally these ranges were agreed upon so as to reduce the number of potential colors needed. And since these are what EMs are the like will be seeing, we didn't want to keep changing the color scale on them to match the event.

 

I can't see what BOX has in the southern part of their CWA to the tenth of an inch, but it could be 0.5" triggering 1-2" or it could be 1.9" unfortunately.

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Exactly, regionally these ranges were agreed upon so as to reduce the number of potential colors needed. And since these are what EMs are the like will be seeing, we didn't want to keep changing the color scale on them to match the event.

 

I can't see what BOX has in the southern part of their CWA to the tenth of an inch, but it could be 0.5" triggering 1-2" or it could be 1.9" unfortunately.

That's a real conservative map for them so my bet is on the light side.   It's a good map given the standards which you clarified.

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Tickle talk.

 

GFS at 18z continues the same theme of a narrow finger of 'better' precip extending towards the south coast.  HRRR just barely gets that into south coastal areas around 3-6z

 

This run looks better as does the RGEM...lol, better being very very relative so maybe the NWS forecast is on the mark for the 1-2.

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I know it wasn't necessarily "suppressed" due to blocking, but the general rule of thumb where if its below zero in New England, it'll snow in the mid-Atlantic seemed to work just fine.

It's just so hard to get a snow event when we have an airmass as cold as we have. I know there are exceptions and all, but especially up here, once I saw models showing -30 H85 temps 24-48 hours prior to the event, I knew there was no shot up here.

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