BxEngine Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not really looking at the sfc yet, but H5 is way better through 54. More amplified and more cyclonic vorticity aloft. It looks better at H5....but the surface isnt as improved, if that makes sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 With the h5 spot on the NAM the Surface Reflection should be more West on the map, not sure why its where it is, but the trends are our friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Better then 18z , hopefully euro holds onto it's 12z solution or slightly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 69hr precip just on coast line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I find that odd...worlds better in the uppers but still pretty shaky at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Maybe if this model did not depict like 50 different low pressure areas off the coast and had one consolidated low pressure area like the EC, we might have a different result closer to the coast? By the way, it looks better at 72 hrs, getting really close here, brings accumulating snows into S NJ and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ultimately, I don't think we can get much more out of this run than the s/w is stronger, as advertised by the Euro. There is still a lot of downstream stuff to be worked out, particularly how much ridging will be out in front, but it's a big plus in resolving some of the uncertainty in the strength of the shortwave. IMO, it's still a thread the needle type event, but the eye got a little bit bigger here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I find that odd...worlds better in the uppers but still pretty shaky at the surface. Yeah, I'm less concerned about the surface reflection at this time. This the first model with the 0z RAOBs and I was more concerned about the strength of the shortwave. Overall, this is a win for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Maybe if this model did not depict like 50 different low pressure areas off the coast and had one consolidated low pressure areas like the EC, we might have a different result closer to the coast? By the way, it looks better at 72 hrs, getting really close here. this may not be the perfect solution but it is 1000000% better than the 18z! H5 is a dream come true comparing the two runs IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 NAM does have 2 detected SLPs...maybe that has something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It looks better at H5....but the surface isnt as improved, if that makes sense? Surface is definitely improved from 18z, just not as much as people might've hoped for (or expected based on the upper levels). Precip is way farther west on the 0z (skirts the coast) as opposed to 18z (well offshore). The fact that there is a favorable trend is what's most important right now, especially in the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah, I'm less concerned about the surface reflection at this time. This the first model with the 0z RAOBs and I was more concerned about the strength of the shortwave. Overall, this is a win for snow lovers. I was just going to ask about that....Im still a novice at reading these things....but the s/w being stronger is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The error here is that it is simply too strung out with the low pressure area. Accumulating snows now in Long Island and almost to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 NAM does have 2 detected SLPs...maybe that has something to do with it. THAT might actually be due to convective feedback. The shortwave is consolidated, so there shouldn't be much elongation to the surface pressure field. Either way, I'm not going to worry too much about the sfc in the NAM at T+72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Look at the mystery dotted vorts popping up yet again out ahead of the low as it develops near Cape Hatteras. Those are definitely robbing energy from the main storm by creating T-storm complexes and rain. I doubt this actually happens as is and is likely yet another convective feedback issue. Without those ramdom heavy precip spots and the pseudo-low that competes with our storm, it would undoubtedly look a lot better verbatim. I'll give it until tomorrow night to work out those kinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 THAT might actually be due to convective feedback. The shortwave is consolidated, so there shouldn't be much elongation to the surface pressure field. Either way, I'm not going to worry too much about the sfc in the NAM at T+72. With all of the random vorts sitting ahead of the storm off of Hatteras, I think that is definitely a convective feedback issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nice hit for South East New England at 78 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It is like the 12 gfs in the end a hair east and less robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The storm is way way better and trended in a much better direction when you compare both maps. We should definitely be satisfied with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 funny it just doesn't seem to get its act together at all between 72 and 78 hrs. With the uppers looking like they are and this think going negative the last thing i would expect would be a double-barrel low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The storm is way way better and trended in a much better direction when you compare both maps. We should definitely be satisfied with this. I agree with that. The upper-air is far more important and it clearly trended to the EURO. Now where's the guy who said the 12z was on crack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I really think it is clear that the convective feedback issue that produces two low pressure centers is messing this up, otherwise I think we would have the Euro solution here, or something pretty close anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I really think it is clear that the convective feedback issue that produces two low pressure centers is messing this up, otherwise I think we would have the Euro solution here, or something pretty close anyway. I think it would be closer to the 12z GFS than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The storm is way way better and trended in a much better direction when you compare both maps. We should definitely be satisfied with this. We're dealing again with a 50 - 150 mile trend for a decent hit. LI/SNE looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I really think it is clear that the convective feedback issue that produces two low pressure centers is messing this up, otherwise I think we would have the Euro solution here, or something pretty close anyway. 18z runs def a fluke. Upper air pattern wayyyy better, and the surface is all screwed up, which should look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Last run Cape Cod had flurries, this run Cape Cod gets 10 inches. How is that for a change in one model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 funny it just doesn't seem to get its act together at all between 72 and 78 hrs. With the uppers looking like they are and this think going negative the last thing i would expect would be a double-barrel low. It won't be a double-barrel low, the NAM only makes it appear that way because it creates random vortmaxes that create a fake pseudo-low and heavy precip, which compete with the main low and cause the whole complex to be broad and weak. By tomorrow night it'll probably lose enough of these to make it into the powerful storm near the coast it would show without the random vorts. Just going by the upper air and taking those vorts out, it would likely be a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We're dealing again with a 50 - 150 mile trend for a decent hit. LI/SNE looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We're dealing again with a 50 - 150 mile trend for a decent hit. LI/SNE looking good. Which ain't too shabby. From my experience tracking storms, the NAM out of all the other models has the most fluctuations past 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I really think it is clear that the convective feedback issue that produces two low pressure centers is messing this up, otherwise I think we would have the Euro solution here, or something pretty close anyway. i was just thinking the same thing.....instead of a strong single low pressure its producing the convective feedbacik issues and the track to the east compared to the 18z close but still not there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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