LocoAko Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 00z NAM stronger with southern shortwave and 4 corners shortwave Wow, yeah. The 18Z NAM had the 558dm contour across Northern Arizona but the 00Z NAM has it across Central/North-Central Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 way further east. that 12z euro run was on crack for sure. Yep, 21z srefs were nail in the coffin. Go with that over the euro. Euro is king until it shows a different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 With all those nails put into the coffin, i'm pretty sure the coffin is wrecked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 18z was screaming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 With all those nails put into the coffin, i'm pretty sure the coffin is wrecked. There are many problems with this storm developing to its fullest potential. To list a few: 1. No cold high pressure to the north. 2. No typically positive PNA. It only goes slightly positive very briefly. 3. The overall pattern really does not support such a major east coast snowstorm. 4. The really cold air that is in place right now will not be as cold as the storm approaches (or doesn't). Therefore any slight change in track closer to the coast and there would likely be precip-type issues in more locations than the models are now showing, especially without the afformentioned cold high to the north. All that said, there are always exceptions and hybrid storms. Tonight and tomorrow's modelling runs are extremely important in beginning to develop a true trend. Up until now, since all the models have gone back & forth, no true trend has really been established. I suspect this ends up being an event somewhere about midway in between what GFS showed at 12Z today and what ECMWF had shown. That said, we still cannot dismiss any of the outlier ideas. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 NAM looking better, Convection developing a bit further west, trough base a bit sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 850 low deffinately developing and almost closing off already well west of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 850 low deffinately developing and almost closing off already well west of 18z. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I have the NAM out to 42 and it looks ok so far to me - definitely sharper and not all that different to the 12Z Euro, maybe not quite a sharp. Surface low developing just over FL panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 heights are higher in the north. This boy is coming close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The NAM at 42 looks like the Euro, but slightly flatter. This should be better than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I have the NAM out to 42 and it looks ok so far to me - definitely sharper and not all that different to the 12Z Euro, maybe not quite a sharp. Surface low developing just over FL panhandle. Yeah heights are noticeably higher here in the northeast @ 42.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Big difference in RH field with a 1012 low on Fl panhandle at 42 compared to 1012 off Sc coast at 48 hours on 18z. This should come a lot closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This run is just tons better. Much more energy diving into the trough from the north. Night and day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Big difference in RH field with a 1012 low on Fl panhandle at 42 compared to 1012 off Sc coast at 48 hours on 18z. This should come a lot closer Wow... your not kidding.. @ 42 RH is literally night and day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 An amazing amount more of moisture with this thing on 0z NAM. Good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 48 hr has the 850 low back over SC - GA . Should track well west of 18z. The seperation between the PV and the pseudo 50/50 is critical as this will allow the trough to go negative faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not really looking at the sfc yet, but H5 is way better through 54. More amplified and more cyclonic vorticity aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks like there is about to be a phase at hr. 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 DETAILS PEOPLE SOME OF US ARE ON MOBILE DEVICES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 wow this is a worlds imporovement over 18z, alot more amped up and a boatload of moisture to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looking at hour 54, it still looks like the major stuff will miss us and SNE will get in on the fun. Great step in the right direction from 18z, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wow, almost like the Euro at hour 60, just slightly farther east...now it looks good for Long Island too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looking at hour 54, it still looks like the major stuff will miss us and SNE will get in on the fun. Great step in the right direction from 18z, though. Us meaning the entire NYC metro area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hour 63, most of the precip is offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks like it may be similar to the 12z GFS in the end scrape the coast and hit LI/SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It's just the trend we need to feel comfortable especially considering it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 63hr most precip off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Its not there yet but does show that the euro solution may be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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