IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 that explains it then, it was the 0z with feedback issues? yes...according to that statement, he then goes on to say he thought it was a tad too far west and a tad strong...so its possible it was a typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 that explains it then, it was the 0z with feedback issues? The original text says " a tad on the strong side and a bit too far west"-- which would make you think theyre talking about the 12z, since its west of the 0z. Which makes you wonder why they didnt do the reverse (replace the 12z with the 0z)..... so if convective feedback caused the 0z to come back too far west, what caused the 12z to go back even further west? Maybe this is all the result of a typo and like joey said, theyre in serious need of some rest lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 yes...according to that statement, he then goes on to say he thought it was a tad too far west and a tad strong...so its possible it was a typo My guess is yes, a typo... he probably meant the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 yes...according to that statement, he then goes on to say he thought it was a tad too far west and a tad strong...so its possible it was a typo Yeah,the 12z was further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 well 00z nam will be the first test....if it shows a flatter solution I think we may be in trouble of loosing the ECMWF at 00z. The GFS I think is having major issues and I personally don't have much faith in its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is actually the first time I've ever heard about the Euro potentially having convective feedback issues. Normally that seems to be limited to the NAM, and to a lesser extent, the GFS. But I could be wrong on that. This is the least confident I've ever been for a huge snowstorm during a time where the OP Euro and its ensembles are both very good for us. The pattern is still oh so delicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is actually the first time I've ever heard about the Euro potentially having convective feedback issues. Normally that seems to be limited to the NAM, and to a lesser extent, the GFS. But I could be wrong on that. This is the least confident I've ever been for a huge snowstorm during a time where the OP Euro and its ensembles are both very good for us. The pattern is still oh so delicate. I agree. It's not going to take much for the Euro to whiff tonight and I have a feeling this thread will go up in flames if it does. That being said..we can just hope that it is behaving like it's usual self at this range and won't fold. I'll put it to you this way...if it had showed a whiff the past two runs...we would all be talking about how it's superior and we have no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is actually the first time I've ever heard about the Euro potentially having convective feedback issues. Normally that seems to be limited to the NAM, and to a lesser extent, the GFS. But I could be wrong on that. This is the least confident I've ever been for a huge snowstorm during a time where the OP Euro and its ensembles are both very good for us. The pattern is still oh so delicate. If the 00z EC looks anything like the the 12z were in business...Mt. Holly even commented in their AFD that watches could be issued as soon as Friday. Being as the EC is generally supported by its ensembles and that the 18z UKMET looked good at 72 I dont see any reason to go against the 12z EC idea of a MECS Even if doesn't end up quite as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 If the 00z EC looks anything like the the 12z were in business...Mt. Holly even commented in their AFD that watches could be issued as soon as Friday. Being as the EC is generally supported by its ensembles and that the 18z UKMET looked good at 72 I dont see any reason to go against the 12z EC idea of a MECS Even if doesn't end up quite as strong. The 18z UKMet was a good bit less amplified than the Euro at 72 hrs..the low pressure about 6mb deeper on the Euro and about 25-40 miles further northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I agree. It's not going to take much for the Euro to whiff tonight and I have a feeling this thread will go up in flames if it does. That being said..we can just hope that it is behaving like it's usual self at this range and won't fold. I'll put it to you this way...if it had showed a whiff the past two runs...we would all be talking about how it's superior and we have no chance. Yeah im riding the 12z euro......i made a post how its far superior inside 96hrs and should pay no attention to the crap american models.......the nam and gfs will show hits at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If the 00z EC looks anything like the the 12z were in business...Mt. Holly even commented in their AFD that watches could be issued as soon as Friday. Being as the EC is generally supported by its ensembles and that the 18z UKMET looked good at 72 I dont see any reason to go against the 12z EC idea of a MECS Even if doesn't end up quite as strong. It was certainly comforting that the UKMET looked better at 18z, especially considering that the NCEP models looked worse...so maybe it's not just a new "18z data thing", since the same 18z data made the UKMET into a much better solution than its 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I agree. It's not going to take much for the Euro to whiff tonight and I have a feeling this thread will go up in flames if it does. That being said..we can just hope that it is behaving like it's usual self at this range and won't fold. I'll put it to you this way...if it had showed a whiff the past two runs...we would all be talking about how it's superior and we have no chance. I hope it doesnt go up in flames if that happens-- its not like anyone one of us can control or influence the weather. If this doesnt give us a nice hit, do you think people will be more disappointed than they were in 2/6/10? I would think 2/6/10 would be considered much worse, if only for the fact that people 50 miles south of us got 2 feet of snow lol. Could you imagine if that winter ended with that storm? It would live in as much or more infamy as March 2001. I really could not imagine what this board would have been like in March 2001-- had it existed then lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I agree. It's not going to take much for the Euro to whiff tonight and I have a feeling this thread will go up in flames if it does. That being said..we can just hope that it is behaving like it's usual self at this range and won't fold. I'll put it to you this way...if it had showed a whiff the past two runs...we would all be talking about how it's superior and we have no chance. I'm locked into this thing now, so I have to hope the EC is right... that being said, it did trend west for two consecutive runs. It'll be interesting to see what happens tonight. At least there are other things I can do if this storm doesn't pan out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm locked into this thing now, so I have to hope the EC is right... that being said, it did trend west for two consecutive runs. It'll be interesting to see what happens tonight. At least there are other things I can do if this storm doesn't pan out... You booked already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm locked into this thing now, so I have to hope the EC is right... that being said, it did trend west for two consecutive runs. It'll be interesting to see what happens tonight. At least there are other things I can do if this storm doesn't pan out... ahahaha. Bringing back the memories. Radio show scheduled, Ray books flight to NJ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm locked into this thing now, so I have to hope the EC is right... that being said, it did trend west for two consecutive runs. It'll be interesting to see what happens tonight. At least there are other things I can do if this storm doesn't pan out... The ensembles went directly over the benchmark..maybe slightly east..but I don't really have many more details other than that. It did trend west big time two runs in a row but one has to be suspect of an over-correction. In the end, I am not really sure what to expect..and can't really remember a time when the Euro showed a huge hit at 72 hrs and I still was unsure/nervous as to the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 18z UKMet was a good bit less amplified than the Euro at 72 hrs..the low pressure about 6mb deeper on the Euro and about 25-40 miles further northwest. 40 miles difference doesnt sound that bad-- but with such a sharp gradient, one never knows. Something last winter taught all of us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm locked into this thing now, so I have to hope the EC is right... that being said, it did trend west for two consecutive runs. It'll be interesting to see what happens tonight. At least there are other things I can do if this storm doesn't pan out... ahahaha. Bringing back the memories. Radio show scheduled, Ray books flight to NJ..... Dont worry, Ray, _AR_ will refund you the ticket costs if this storm doesnt pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 18z UKMet was a good bit less amplified than the Euro at 72 hrs..the low pressure about 6mb deeper on the Euro and about 25-40 miles further northwest. Yeah, but the 12z Ukie was terribly flat, save for a very late retrograde once it's past SNE's latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You booked already? Yes. Based on past performance, that means TTN will find a way to get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yes. Based on past performance, that means TTN will find a way to get screwed You called it even before these runs came out lol. Did you get screwed when you made your trek east last winter also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 UKMET was significantly less amped than the ECMWF, but remember how bad it was for the last weekend's storm compared to the ECMWF. Keep that in mind as you view the 0z UKMET tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The ensembles went directly over the benchmark..maybe slightly east..but I don't really have many more details other than that. It did trend west big time two runs in a row but one has to be suspect of an over-correction. In the end, I am not really sure what to expect..and can't really remember a time when the Euro showed a huge hit at 72 hrs and I still was unsure/nervous as to the outcome. Do you really believe that it had convective feedback issues? I mean, although Upton seems to think so, the HPC didn't. I didn't even think that it was a possibility when I first saw the run. The ensembles being (generally) in line with the OP seems to me that it would prove that there were not convective feedback problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What happened to the ECM is superior model and all that talk? So the ECM last night came west and then today it also trended more to the west. If one looked at the 18 Z GFS ensemble spaghetti plots(from yesterday) they will also see that the ECM and the solution it is showing is well in the realms of possibility . I would go so far to say that it is essentially reverting back to the solution that it showed in the beginning when it buried the east coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Convective feedback issues can seep through every aspect of a model run. If Upton is correct, the ECMWF has convective feedback which is causing a warm core system and a ridiculously deep surface low, which then leads to a domino effect of more QPF, stronger CCB, etc. I don't see that as convective feedback, so much as a very wound up system with a bent-back warm front and warm seclusion...a common feature of many strong extratropical storms. Still I question whether the storm will wind up quite that much--all the players would have to come together just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Do you really believe that it had convective feedback issues? I mean, although Upton seems to think so, the HPC didn't. I didn't even think that it was a possibility when I first saw the run. The ensembles being (generally) in line with the OP seems to me that it would prove that there were not convective feedback problems. Convective feedback is such a nebulous thing to diagnose. The low was certainly warm core, but that's not uncommon for strong Nor'easters. I think I am still on the initialization bandwagon for the discrepancies. The s/w in the 12z Euro is so much stronger than any other s/w we've seen so far. If it were any other model, I would throw it out. As it is, I went for 4-8 for Philly Metro in my afternoon update for clients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You called it even before these runs came out lol. Did you get screwed when you made your trek east last winter also? Relatively speaking. For 12/19/09, the big snows were over S and E NJ. TTN only had 10.0" For 2/6/10, the big snows were again over S NJ. TTN only had 10.4" For 2/10/10, I couldn't be home (was working mid shifts and I follow the golden rule). TTN had 17.6" For 2/25/10, the big snows were over N NJ. TTN only had 8.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't see that as convective feedback, so much as a very wound up system with a bent-back warm front and warm seclusion...a common feature of many strong extratropical storms. Still I question whether the storm will wind up quite that much--all the players would have to come together just right. That's reassuring, definitely. My head hurts from all this waffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 From the 18Z thread: Both the 18Z NAM and GFS has the low development to far east of the hyper-baroclinic field. It is like the ocean will not add sensible heating to the surrounding atmosphere. For this reason and many other I feel a solution more like the ECMWF and Gem may be more correct. This is a point that I saw earlier and forgot to comment on here. Early in season -> Ocean temps are still warm Below normal land surface temps. This sets up a very good natural baroclinic zone along the shoreline between these two contrasting temperatures for the storm to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't see that as convective feedback, so much as a very wound up system with a bent-back warm front and warm seclusion...a common feature of many strong extratropical storms. Still I question whether the storm will wind up quite that much--all the players would have to come together just right. I don't either--I was a little unsure on that reasoning too. It's definitely interesting how wide the spread is. Usually at this range, with the Euro and it ensembles showing hits at 72-84 hrs...there would be some decent confidence. But the fact is that there isn't--and with good reason, too. It was encouraging to see the SREFs come so far north and west and I'm hoping we see the same idea at 21z. A few SREF members were actually very far west---more than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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