Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yeah, back then these were being called "super clippers" It's what makes me wonder if we could get one of those this season, since we have a clipper showing up on the modeling. However, like Chris said, theyre likely more energized in el ninos (although 00-01 was a mod la nina if I'm not mistaken?) Yes 00-01 was a moderate La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Another Super Clipper: 1/15/04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The 21z SREFS come out before the nam, usually about 5 min before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Another Super Clipper: 1/15/04. That 30-40:1 ratios are what made that super. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yes 00-01 was a moderate La Nina. It was actually a weak Niña with an ONI TM peak of -0.7C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 21z SREFS are out to 21 hr so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 That 30-40:1 ratios are what made that super. They were high, but that's exaggerating it just a bit. I believe my ratio was 27:1. It was ridiculous, I had almost 7" of snow and not so much precip. But, then again, snow fell with temperatures between 7 and 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 21z SREFS look to be slightly further NW than 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Based on the MSLP spread on the SREFs it seems like one rogue member wants to bring it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 They actually bring the .10 . 25 line in to most of NJ a preverbal hit modestly speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 They actually bring the .10 . 25 line in to most of NJ a preverbal hit modestly speaking. Progress, 18z nam and GFS, now 21z SERFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 maybe we can squeeze out an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Highly doubt it..The SREF's mean is obviously skewed by 1 over ampd solution. Its not a good source right now NAM coming in with basically NO shortwave...Its time to move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 maybe we can squeeze out an inch I'm pretty sure everyone would agree that at this point if somehow 1-2 inches fell, we'd all sort of feel like this event was a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'm pretty sure everyone would agree that at this point if somehow 1-2 inches fell, we'd all sort of feel like this event was a win. At this point, if the ground becomes white it's a win, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 NAM coming in with basically NO shortwave...Its time to move on Honestly, thats not the real problem with this event....a crap shortwave can be compensated for when this reaches the coast if things went right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 the NAM looks encouraging if you live in the Cape or the Islands - especially the 300mb chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 As expected NAM is OTS - getting to be that time to breakout the neighbors snow making nossle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Locking this one up since it is 10 pages past due. I'm going to call the new thread "Short Range Forecasting Discussion" to differentiate it from the obs thread and the medium range thread. In the new thread, feel free to suggests different/better names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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