December 19-20 Talking Points - Part 3

[tmagan]

This storm was a prime example how nearly every met. is a model hugger like the rest of us.

Unless you can do millions of calculations in a four hour period, there isn't much else you can do.

[ARyan]

But the through was much sharper in the 18z. Last chance at 00z. Both the NAM and the GFS are different from their 12z runs.

Just barely. But you know everyone will be watching the 0z runs. lol.

[tmagan]

At this rate, by 00Z, it might be bringing snow to Bermuda.

[jm1220]

At this rate, by 00Z, it might be bringing snow to Bermuda.

Maybe it'll trend past Antarctica and come back at us from the north.

[ARyan]

Unless you can do millions of calculations in a four hour period, there isn't much else you can do.

...or you can use actual observations to formulate a perfectly reasonable forecast.

[IsentropicLift]

Much better ridging in the midwest at 60hrs at 850mb on the 18z gfs in my opinion. I guess it all depends how far east the low over Florida makes it before it amplifies. Right now I'm just happy it looks to be more of a consolidated system vs the strung out mess it had been showing. Obviously the window is closing fast but if we were still 84hrs out I would be more optimistic with this run.

[nynjpaweather]

This storm was a prime example how nearly every met. is a model hugger like the rest of us.

I'm sorry, but that's like saying every construction worker relies on a hammer to hammer in a nail. Of course we rely on models, it's an important tool. Being a forecaster in this position is a no win situation. I haven't read one meteorologist who is confident in these solutions and everyone that I talk to has the same concerns I have, that something is up with these models. However, it is the best tool we have for a forecast that more than 48 hours away. What would you suggest all the meteorologist do? Just say, hey it's going to snow no matter what our best tools show? What exactly do you want from a meteorologist in this situation. Please answer.

[Yorkpa25]

What time Is the ukie and ggem out? Just for s**ts and giggles.

[Collegestudent11]

I'm sorry, but that's like saying every construction worker relies on a hammer to hammer in a nail. Of course we rely on models, it's an important tool. Being a forecaster in this position is a no win situation. I haven't read one meteorologist who is confident in these solutions and everyone that I talk to has the same concerns I have, that something is up with these models. However, it is the best tool we have for a forecast that more than 48 hours away. What would you suggest all the meteorologist do? Just say, hey it's going to snow no matter what our best tools show? What exactly do you want from a meteorologist in this situation. Please answer.

Perhaps a bit off topic here, however, do you see the 18z solution as something that finally only has one low pressure system, and a bit further west. Could this be the models correcting themselves?

[tmagan]

What time Is the ukie and ggem out? Just for s**ts and giggles.

18Z UKMET in agreement with GFS, NAM, RGEM.

[IsentropicLift]

One other thing...that I haven't seen anyone else mention. The PV appears to be much further to the NW over Canada rather that due west as was previously forecasted. That was allowing for the PV to either split or on later runs move far enough west to help raise heights on the east coast. What I'm seeing now is that perhaps since the ridging is stronger its pushing the PV further north. The ridging then perhaps is helping to supress the low over the gulf until it begins to reach the rising heights in the atlantic and comes north.

[Rtd208]

While I have pretty much thrown in the towel on this event I will admit that I do have an uneasy feeling in my gut that something might be up and I still think it is a good idea to continue to monitor this over the next 24hrs or so.

I'm sorry, but that's like saying every construction worker relies on a hammer to hammer in a nail. Of course we rely on models, it's an important tool. Being a forecaster in this position is a no win situation. I haven't read one meteorologist who is confident in these solutions and everyone that I talk to has the same concerns I have, that something is up with these models. However, it is the best tool we have for a forecast that more than 48 hours away. What would you suggest all the meteorologist do? Just say, hey it's going to snow no matter what our best tools show? What exactly do you want from a meteorologist in this situation. Please answer.

[FPizz]

Over the years, all we hear from mets. is that it is guidance only. Yet a model flips, then every forecast changes. I'd just like to hear for once that the models now do 95%+ of the forecasting. You guys make fun of the accuweather 15 day forecast, but I don't see why you do. You all do the same thing, they are just more obvious about it.

[ARyan]

Over the years, all we hear from mets. is that it is guidance only. Yet a model flips, then every forecast changes. I'd just like to hear for once that the models now do 95%+ of the forecasting. You guys make fun of the accuweather 15 day forecast, but I don't see why you do. You all do the same thing, they are just more obvious about it.

Ummm...no. Please don't make stuff up if you don't know how to forecast or forecast *properly.*

[nynjpaweather]

Perhaps a bit off topic here, however, do you see the 18z solution as something that finally only has one low pressure system, and a bit further west. Could this be the models correcting themselves?

Honestly, not sure. And yes, I HATE saying that. However, if a correction to the west is going to happen than it had better start between these runs and 12Z tomorrow. Period.

[Absolute Humidity]

is that true?..has it ever snowed at a Giant home game..I remember one..Giant Viking playoff game in Dec 1997..more slush than anything else..it has snowed at Jets home games

Yes, remember that one too, but it never stuck to anything until the game was over. So that don't count. Field has to be white not 75% Green.

[Collegestudent11]

Honestly, not sure. And yes, I HATE saying that. However, if a correction to the west is going to happen than it had better start between these runs and 12Z tomorrow. Period.

Again, thank you for answering that. Between the last two years, i am surprised that professional mets still have their blood pressure intact.

[nynjpaweather]

Over the years, all we hear from mets. is that it is guidance only. Yet a model flips, then every forecast changes. I'd just like to hear for once that the models now do 95%+ of the forecasting. You guys make fun of the accuweather 15 day forecast, but I don't see why you do. You all do the same thing, they are just more obvious about it.

Wow, clueless.

Okay, let me explain it to you like this. The models are like a boundary of where your forecast should go towards. For example, if you have models showing a massive arctic out break, it would be wise not to forecast a heat wave or near normal conditions.

However, just like any model there are errors, and you have to account for those errors and in order to understand the models and potential errors you have to understand thermodynamics and a whole host of other meteorological physical scientific theories to parse through the BS and the reality.

Now, in this situation, the forecasting is exceptionally hard. Should the meteorologist in charge have advertise the potential for a snow storm when all the observations are pointing to one and the models are strongly suggesting one? Of course, if not, then we would have been blamed for not alerting the public/clients properly. Of course, not one meteorologist, NOT ONE, was suggesting this out come was a certainty and everyone pretty much agree that this situation needs to be watched, and it still does. You are talking about a change of 30 to 50 miles with that upper low in the Pacific and we are back to what we saw in the models yesterday afternoon. Let's see your forecast on this storm.

So in closing, I suggest you study the science and understand the work that goes into creating a forecast before you make such a stupid statement.

[_AR_]

I don't care how impossible it seems to get a storm. It's not over until the wave passes. lol.

[Edge Weather]

FWIW the 18z GFS is going to phase this thing at 180 hrs. (Christmas Day)

Has a major snowstorm for DC on North

[tombo82685]

fyi christmas storm is a raging snowstorm for the area 1-1.5 feet on this run lol

[tmagan]

Again, thank you for answering that. Between the last two years, i am surprised that professional mets still have their blood pressure intact.

You should have been around in the late '80's, this is nothing.

[Ericjcrash]

Honestly, not sure. And yes, I HATE saying that. However, if a correction to the west is going to happen than it had better start between these runs and 12Z tomorrow. on radar tomorrow. Period.

There you go.

[_AR_]

FWIW the 18z GFS is going to phase this thing at 180 hrs. (Christmas Day)

fyi christmas storm is a raging snowstorm for the area 1-1.5 feet on this run lol

[Collegestudent11]

Again, slighty off topic, however, i noticed there are a few Rutgers students here. Are you meteorology majors?

[Ericjcrash]

fyi christmas storm is a raging snowstorm for the area 1-1.5 feet on this run lol

Oh no! here we go again.

[Collegestudent11]

You should have been around in the late '80's, this is nothing.

I would have figured there would have been less pressure, without the widespread internet and the 24/7 analysis, and the public generally only being aware of a storm <48 hours out.

[tombo82685]

Oh no! here we go again.

start tracking it....

[Rtd208]

I say we start a new thread now just for the Christmas storm.

fyi christmas storm is a raging snowstorm for the area 1-1.5 feet on this run lol

[SnowGoose69]

This could be the last shot for this area for awhile...need to capatilize like this one....like December 2000 we have a chance for a last second save.