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December 19-20 Talking Points - Part 3


earthlight

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If we get measurable precip into Tenn and West Va tomorrow I might pay attention. With the 18z NAM a hair sharper there's still a little room to get coastal sections involved.

Check that. It was only the lead impulse that was slightly sharper. This helps initially with SLP and QPF westward placement, but ultimately the result is slightly flatter.

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If we get measurable precip into Tenn and West Va tomorrow I might pay attention. With the 18z NAM a hair sharper there's still a little room to get coastal sections involved.

She's Gone sub 1000 at 54 of Jersey shore, A hair better then 12Z, but its to far gone east and maybe a dollar short come tomorrow. Would'nt take much to get at least a couple. Then there is the NY Giants rule, it never snows when the Giants play at home.

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She's Gone sub 1000 at 54 of Jersey shore, A hair better then 12Z, but its to far gone east and maybe a dollar short come tomorrow. Would'nt take much to get at least a couple. Then there is the NY Giants rule, it never snows when the Giants play at home.

is that true?..has it ever snowed at a Giant home game..I remember one..Giant Viking playoff game in Dec 1997..more slush than anything else..it has snowed at Jets home games

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18Z NAM still odd with its development of the coastal low with some apparent convective issues, I wouldn't trust any solution it shows now that deviates significantly from what its been showing....the only reason this event still concerns me slightly is the NAM having these convective feedback issues, the resolution is lower on the other models overall so it would be less apparent if they are having the same problem..as a result still a 10-15% chance or so we could see some sort of 11th hour change on this.

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is that true?..has it ever snowed at a Giant home game..I remember one..Giant Viking playoff game in Dec 1997..more slush than anything else..it has snowed at Jets home games

I said earlier in the week that because they were playing at home it would not happen...there was a great chance for a major snow event 2-3 seasons ago for a Giants/Eagles Sunday night game, I think that game was in Philly but it wound up tracking well offshore.

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It looks like Upton for the most part, has written off this event.

...MORE THAN LIKELY...THE REGION WILL BE DRY SUNDAY-MONDAY AS WEAK

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY AND A COASTAL LOW PASSES

WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOW LIKELY WILL TAKE THIS

TRACK...BECAUSE THE LA-NINA DRIVEN FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL TAKE THE

INITIAL LOW TO FAR OFFSHORE...BEFORE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE...WHICH

REACHES THE COAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIVING BACK

SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES...DOES NOT INTERACT WITH THE STORM

UNTIL IT IS WELL OUT TO SEA. AS NOTED EARLIER...THIS IDEA IS

SUPPORTED BY ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND MOST OF THEIR ASSOCIATED

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HOWEVER...AS NOTED ABOVE...WITH ENSEMBLES STILL

SUGGESTING A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...AND NOT WANTING

TO GO TO A TOTALLY DRY FORECAST IN ONE CYCLE...HAVE OPTED TO

SIGNIFICANTLY TONE DOWN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXPECTING THAT

FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY GO TO A DRY FORECAST...

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Very subtle changes on the gfs. The polar vortex retrogrades more nw, and the trough is a tad sharper, along with a stronger low. However we are in the time period where the models only make sligh changes, and we pretty much have an agreement that we are not in the game for snow anymore..And this run completely shafts NE as well.

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