tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 jeez.. California.. my word! it's ugly out there, per Euro. yea 5-10 of rain through 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 150 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is a current display at 500mb. When you compare how flat it is with what the models are showing they look pretty accurate. Perhaps slightly more digging going on near the TX panhandle. It does seem to have a tad of a negative look to it. Yeah, agreed. Studied the water vapor and a succession of model charts and this thing looks fairly well modeled. Maybe some slight errors in Tx and a few other places, but almost certainly not enough. From the WV, it's easy to mentally visualize how the PV and southern s/w could join forces and spin up a nice coastal. But it looks like we are a day late and a dollar short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 he actually said it's still trending closer...lol Bill Evans out to lunch if thats him making the forecast...he was calling 3-6 inches this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the christmas storm is starting to eject into the plains at hr 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the christmas storm is starting to eject into the plains at hr 168 sounds like there is good agreement between the EC and GFS edit- now that i see the 168 hr map- they are worlds apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the christmas storm is starting to eject into the plains at hr 168 yea. it's running into a big brick wall in the form of a high pressure in southern Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 sounds like there is good agreement between the EC and GFS Not gonna lie, if we can get a few inches on Xmas eve/day, I'll forget all about the weekend miss and what could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 yea. it's running into a big brick wall in the form of a high pressure in southern Canada At this point, I've pretty much moved on to that potential. This storm could still surprise us, but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12Z JMA still brings the half-inch isohyet to L.I., but it may need one more cycle to catch up to reality. don't say that lol all the weenies will be trying to plug the life support back in...do any of the individual ensemble members from the ec or gfs show measureable precip on land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 last yr the block was our best friend well from nyc south, this yr its killing us Last we had a active STJ.... This yr its dormant.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Last we had a active STJ.... This yr its dormant.. yes, but i wonder if this yrs blocking would of forced it south? Seems like its further south than last yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 198 christmas wave is on life support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 that system has no where to go for Christmas day.. it's blocked. The euro wants to form a bit of a surface low in response to the persistant upper low over New England around Christmas. it's spitting out light QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Bill Evans out to lunch if thats him making the forecast...he was calling 3-6 inches this morning Changed it at noon to flurries for us and maybe a few inches in Suffolk County lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 that system has no where to go for Christmas day.. it's blocked. The euro wants to form a bit of a surface low in response to the persistant upper low over New England around Christmas. it's spitting out light QPF Sounds like xmas system is going the way of this one. My main analog for this month is turning into Dec 1989 lol. This really has the feel of a late 80s winter. My original call was for about a foot of snow for the season, with one storm of 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro and GFS on board with big Omega blocking pattern developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 finally, at 210, it looks the pattern is on the move again.. the persistant upper low over new england wants to move east and the trof off the west coast is moving inland.. and there seems to be a huge ridge forming well into the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 From Steve D.... "The problem is that the entire set up is dependent on the disturbances and upper low in the Pacific and how they set up the next 24 hours. The area that has the least reliable data is key, makes for a forecast high for bust potential either way." - Steve D All the players needed for this storm in North America at this point and the surface disturbance in question is in the South. Things *could* change but it's going to be a remarkably epic fail to see the Euro, GFS, NAM all trend back to a coastal hugger 36 hours from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro and GFS on board with big Omega blocking pattern developing. exactly.. that's what I was noticing before and had mentioned.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 finally, at 210, it looks the pattern is on the move again.. the persistant upper low over new england wants to move east and the trof off the west coast is moving inland.. and there seems to be a huge ridge forming well into the Pacific. Euro has been really bad this winter ..I'll ride the GFS on the Christmas storm..it did much better with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Talk about out to lunch! 12Z JMA accumulated 5-day precip. (mm). Although it has 14 inches in the Sierras liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 don't say that lol all the weenies will be trying to plug the life support back in...do any of the individual ensemble members from the ec or gfs show measureable precip on land? Two GFS ens members brush us and three get eastern NE pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looks like we may make it through the entire run with zero QPF, essentially. I'm sure it will change.. or I should say.. I hope it will change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 taking a look at the 2 hr pressure changes looks like pressure is falling all along the SE. Now taking a look at 300mb you can see what appears to be digging going on near the TX panhandle and a slight negative tilt. finaly looking at 500mb it looks to me as if the troughing is slightly sharper than forecasted...but I'm not an expert by any means. Do any of the mets have any comments on the current synoptics? Looks like a stronger southern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looks like we may make it through the entire run with zero QPF, essentially. I'm sure it will change.. or I should say.. I hope it will change! good better than 8 day and then 3 day blizzard that never materialize ..btw GFS ensemble has big time support for storm around Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I've got good news and bad....my forecast model hits the area with heavy snow....the bad news it aint to good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 taking a look at the 2 hr pressure changes looks like pressure is falling all along the SE. Now taking a look at 300mb you can see what appears to be digging going on near the TX panhandle and a slight negative tilt. finaly looking at 500mb it looks to me as if the troughing is slightly sharper than forecasted...but I'm not an expert by any means. Do any of the mets have any comments on the current synoptics? your observations are good.. It's just that these things you are looking at are on such a small scale that their isn't the resolution to determine the significance of them. That first wave in the southwest is moving really quickly. It would need to slow down big time to wait for phasing with the shortwave over Idaho to give this trof the chance to really amplify the way it needs to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I've got good news and bad....my forecast model hits the area with heavy snow....the bad news it aint to good... It's #1 in our hearts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 exactly.. that's what I was noticing before and had mentioned.. Yep,should keep the below normal tendency in our temps going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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