ace0927 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What he wrote was correct. He said that other than 12Z yesterday, 6 of 7 EC runs had nothing. Which means that 0Z Thursday was the 1 outlier. even if you want to include the 0Z and 12Z thursday runs....I went back and checked its 7 of 9...which to me show a very good %age of no storm solutions. So if you take the largest outliers the EC was VERY consistent since 12Z sunday. As opposed to the GFS which went miss, hit, miss, hit, miss, almost hit, miss, hit, miss rinse wash repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Been reading that the WV images show the s/w holding stronger in NM than what was shown in models. Any Mets have thoughts on this? if i had a dollar for every time i heard this or the precip shield is definitely moving NORTH i could retire....btw- its never correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I will say it again- this is the best looking h5 map I have seen this year...if this is correct, and that is a HUGE IF, this is our chance before it gets warm...maybe the pattern changer. 12Z GFS 168hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Surprised channel seven still had Long Island in the 1"-3" range when that wont even happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 if i had a dollar for every time i heard this or the precip shield is definitely moving NORTH i could retire....btw- its never correct Normally thats the one fun period of storms that are a near miss for the area as they get into the NC/VA/SC region but I'm not sure with this event if the trends of the 12Z guidance are correct we'll even have that straw house to lean on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Surprised channel seven still had Long Island in the 1"-3" range when that wont even happen. he actually said it's still trending closer...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I will say it again- this is the best looking h5 map I have seen this year...if this is correct, and that is a HUGE IF, this is our chance before it gets warm...maybe the pattern changer. 12Z GFS 168hrs I said the region would likely eventually cash in between the 12th-22nd or so....The NAO is probably neutral to positive there but given how quick the flow is its likely that system would make it into the region before that 50/50 esque low was able to get out of the way and hence would probably be a decent chance for an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 he actually said it's still trending closer...lol That was yesterday's headlines he was using, he is a met, you would think he would peruse the latest guidance, although he sounded ill from a sore throat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I said the region would likely eventually cash in between the 12th-22nd or so....The NAO is probably neutral to positive there but given how quick the flow is its likely that system would make it into the region before that 50/50 esque low was able to get out of the way and hence would probably be a decent chance for an event. and just to take it one step further- i am in no way saying it will be a KU event...but a 3-6" or 4-8" type situation is certainly plausible. I went thru the Kocin book looking at the h5 graphics for the storms, especially, t+24 and 48 hrs prior to the storm and none matched this....for once we need the SE ridge to raise heights along the coast and it aint there...in 3 weeks it will be however (assuming we lose the -nao) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro should be moving now. One last kick in the nads.....for old time sake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 and just to take it one step further- i am in no way saying it will be a KU event...but a 3-6" or 4-8" type situation is certainly plausible. I went thru the Kocin book looking at the h5 graphics for the storms, especially, t+24 and 48 hrs prior to the storm and none matched this....for once we need the SE ridge to raise heights along the coast and it aint there...in 3 weeks it will be however (assuming we lose the -nao) Often times a SW flow event with a bit of a 50/50 low or slightly suppressed pattern is the only chance you have early on during La Ninas through at least mid-January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro should be moving now. One last kick in the nads.....for old time sake? its out to 12 but its already moving in the wrong direction with a weak s/w and flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro: at hour 12, shortwave 1 is in central Oklahoma.. shortwave 2 is moving through Idaho and rather weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 at hour 18, shortwave over Idaho essentially fizzles out. Shortwave trough axis neutral eastern texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 its out to 12 but its already moving in the wrong direction with a weak s/w and flat Tombo..thanks for the updates..I think this one is over..waiting for the udates on midwek and Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hour 30, trof axis near MS, Al border. precip confined to Georgia and SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hour 36, most of the precip already offshore... as far north as eastern NC. trof axis very open and ever so slightly negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Tombo..thanks for the updates..I think this one is over..waiting for the udates on midwek and Christmas +1 Tombo/tornadojay - let's here some good news on that Christmas threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If you read the HWO put out by Mt. Holly at 10am you would certainly think their was a much better chance of seeing a decent snow. I'm suprised they would even mention it with such a low probability at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Tombo..thanks for the updates..I think this one is over..waiting for the udates on midwek and Christmas yea thats what im waiting for, i just hope this coastal contiues to trend weaker i dont want it to mess up the mid week clipper but it looks like it prob will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hour 42.. still. very flat, open wave... precip only confined to immediate southeast coast.. .no organized low pressure to be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro matches the GFS extremely well early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hour 48, weak 1008 mb low forming about 50 - 100 miles east of NC.. 95% of QPF offshore and looking to be headed OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 How's that miller b looking behind the weekend event? the one before the xmas event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 BTW - GGEM - hopelessly out to sea for the weekend, retrograde still in play for the New England, Eastern Mass looks to get hit pretty hard at 108 - 120. NYC snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 48 has a sub 1008 about 100 miles east of h...i dont like how the pv in south central canada is further south on this run that doesn;t bode well for the clipper, prob push it further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 gone at 54.. several hundred miles east .. California hogging up all the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 gone at 54.. several hundred miles east .. California hogging up all the precip. that pv in south central canada is prob going to smash the next threat south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Negligibly different from GFS at 48hr with GFS ever so slightly sharper. We're getting some good agreement finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hour 48, weak 1008 mb low forming about 50 - 100 miles east of NC.. 95% of QPF offshore and looking to be headed OTS Only shot we had was if the S/W dropping down through the 4 corners region phased with the PV sooner causing the trough to go negative tilt further west and the low to form in the central gulf. Instead the S/W is virtually non-existent and in some models lagged behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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