whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 In a La Nina pattern with a weak southern stream I'm not sure a southland express LP origination is what we want. A Colorado low is probably a better origination if the mid atlantic and ne coast want to see something in the long run. The system behind it does originate from Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At least we found out it's a miss 2 days in advance instead of the day of, ala 3/5/01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 96 i wonder if we can get a miller b going.....our missed costal does not retrograde as far back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 96 i wonder if we can get a miller b going.....our missed costal does not retrograde as far back The gfs at hr 105 is pretty much shearing it out.....gives DC around .1......looks real good coming out of chi....but it gets sheared out big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 One positive. A weaker further out to sea solution could improve chances with mid-week clipper. Better a big miss than a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 After the past few days models runs nothing is gonna surprise me today. Writing it off is still I think premature taking the horrendous consistency with the models including "king" euro which is still flip flopping. After todays 12z gfs and euro as well as 18z those solutions for me will determine if this storm is dead for me. As I heard last night the northern wave will be onshore and sampling "should" be better and a better model consensus should occur. EC hasn't really been terribly inconsistent. It had a flip to a storm Saturday that went back to no storm Sunday night. Then it had its random bad run yesterday. Otherwise its been consistent OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At least we found out it's a miss 2 days in advance instead of the day of, ala 3/5/01. that will always be the patron saint of snow weenie pain. . . . . . ooofah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 One positive. A weaker further out to sea solution could improve chances with mid-week clipper. Better a big miss than a close call. Agree..i want this as far east and weak we can get it...it wil only improve our chances..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It seems like alot of people got burned by jumping on the Euro solution from yesterday. Is the Euro going to have these kinds of problems all winter I wonder or is it this particular situation? Every storm is different but I know people will be much more cautious next time around Guilty Fortunately I was able to correct that mistake... EC had a problem with analyzing the southern shortwave too strong. It woke up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Barring a miracle on the Euro today, it's over. The models finally seem to agree on a miss and a sheared out mess of a storm. It's time to move on. I have a feeling this winter will be known for its many outcomes like this on the Eastern Seaboard (but probably in terms of cutters/not out to sea). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 People cling to whatever model is showing the best IMBY solution for them. On 12/14 it was the 12Z GFS and on 12/16 it was the 12Z ECMWF. If you look at the big picture here, its been clear for quite awhile what was going to happen. Both of those runs were outliers and while they shouldn't be ignored, just like the euros idea of a storm near Bermuda, its much more efficant to look at the overall average. I think so far that the ensemble means has actually performed quite well with its idea of a track just SE of the benchmark. The strength of the low itself is a different story. Nice post. We've had one or two hits from each of the GFS, EC, UK, GGEM and a bunch of misses from the op and ens runs over the past week. If you take away yesterday's 12z suite, especially the EC, this whole evolution wouldn't seem so harsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 EC hasn't really been terribly inconsistent. It had a flip to a storm Saturday that went back to no storm Sunday night. Then it had its random bad run yesterday. Otherwise its been consistent OTS. 00z run yesterday was also pretty far west and gave the NYC area several inches with a significant hit for Long Island. Combine that with the MECS/HECS it showed yesterday and it's done a pretty awful job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 00z run yesterday was also pretty far west and gave our area a few inches IIRC. Combine that with the MECS/HECS it showed yesterday and it's done a pretty awful job. Am I disappointed with the EC? Yes. Has it done horribly? I wouldn't say that... The GFS has consistently been further N and W with the system. The 0Z EC yesterday was in line with the GFS at the time. Again, other than the two runs yesterday, the EC has been OTS since Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Its just wierd that all the models jumped to a similar solution yesterday afternoon and then decided to go back to the previous ots solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Its just wierd that all the models jumped to a similar solution yesterday afternoon and then decided to go back to the previous ots solutions. No, this perception is incorrect. It was really only the EC that jumped. The GFS had been further NW all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No, this perception is incorrect. It was really only the EC that jumped. The GFS had been further NW all the time. GGEM had a major west shift as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No, this perception is incorrect. It was really only the EC that jumped. The GFS had been further NW all the time. Didnt the Canadian and Kma and Jma have out to sea and then the 12 z runs had closer to the 40/70 benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Look what is coming for Xmas. Can it stay cold enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Its just wierd that all the models jumped to a similar solution yesterday afternoon and then decided to go back to the previous ots solutions. And that the shift happened at 12z yesterday, when most were expecting better sampling of the southern stream s/w. At least that's why I bit harder on one run than I normally do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think the models can get much worse. 2 inches of liquid in NYC on the Euro yesterday. Today some flurries for Cape Cod. Climo was against this storm from the beginning. Last year we made foot+ snowstorms look easy. We knew that wasn't going to happen again. It's just not normal for DC, philly, NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 True but even experienced forecasters including the NWS jumped on board. I mean 90% chance of snow 3 days out is pretty unprecedented. People cling to whatever model is showing the best IMBY solution for them. On 12/14 it was the 12Z GFS and on 12/16 it was the 12Z ECMWF. If you look at the big picture here, its been clear for quite awhile what was going to happen. Both of those runs were outliers and while they shouldn't be ignored, just like the euros idea of a storm near Bermuda, its much more efficant to look at the overall average. I think so far that the ensemble means has actually performed quite well with its idea of a track just SE of the benchmark. The strength of the low itself is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 168 on the GFS might be the best looking t-36/48 hour h5 map we have had all season...potential miller b... I never really liked the way the h5 trough was so rounded with little room to amplify on this upcoming system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think the models can get much worse. 2 inches of liquid in NYC on the Euro yesterday. Today some flurries for Cape Cod. Climo was against this storm from the beginning. Last year we made foot+ snowstorms look easy. We knew that wasn't going to happen again. It's just not normal for DC, philly, NYC. if you take out that one fluke run of the EC, 6 of 7 runs of it had nothing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Am I disappointed with the EC? Yes. Has it done horribly? I wouldn't say that... The GFS has consistently been further N and W with the system. The 0Z EC yesterday was in line with the GFS at the time. Again, other than the two runs yesterday, the EC has been OTS since Sunday night. It's just so shocking that the Euro (supposedly the best model out there) would make such a terrible blunder like that, whatever the reason for it may be. And it wasn't even just the Euro that had a significant shift west yesterday, the GGEM and SREFs also did. Very strange considering that was supposedly when we were going to start getting a better sampling of the southern shortwave. I definitely think a lot of people's faith in the Euro (and all of the models, really) will be significantly lowered because of this event...I know mine will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Look what is coming for Xmas. Can it stay cold enough? you should hope it does because after any xmas storm the block is already breaking down and NAO is going to start its climb into the postive range as the pac jet floods the u.s with warm temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 if you take out that one fluke run of the EC, 6 of 7 runs of it had nothing for us. The 00z run yesterday gave the NYC area several inches with a significant hit for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No, the 00z run yesterday gave the NYC area several inches with a significant hit for Long Island. 0Z friday???? or 0Z thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Damn, now 0-3 out to sea...NAM, GFS, GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 0Z friday???? or 0Z thursday? 0z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No, this perception is incorrect. It was really only the EC that jumped. The GFS had been further NW all the time. And what's weird is that typically the GFS is too far south and east on coastal storms too initially and then tend to move NW as we get within a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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