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December 19-20 Talking Points - Part 3


earthlight

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After the past few days models runs nothing is gonna surprise me today. Writing it off is still I think premature taking the horrendous consistency with the models including "king" euro which is still flip flopping. After todays 12z gfs and euro as well as 18z those solutions for me will determine if this storm is dead for me. As I heard last night the northern wave will be onshore and sampling "should" be better and a better model consensus should occur.

EC hasn't really been terribly inconsistent. It had a flip to a storm Saturday that went back to no storm Sunday night. Then it had its random bad run yesterday. Otherwise its been consistent OTS.

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It seems like alot of people got burned by jumping on the Euro solution from yesterday. Is the Euro going to have these kinds of problems all winter I wonder or is it this particular situation? Every storm is different but I know people will be much more cautious next time around

Guilty :arrowhead: Fortunately I was able to correct that mistake...

EC had a problem with analyzing the southern shortwave too strong. It woke up this morning.

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People cling to whatever model is showing the best IMBY solution for them. On 12/14 it was the 12Z GFS and on 12/16 it was the 12Z ECMWF. If you look at the big picture here, its been clear for quite awhile what was going to happen. Both of those runs were outliers and while they shouldn't be ignored, just like the euros idea of a storm near Bermuda, its much more efficant to look at the overall average. I think so far that the ensemble means has actually performed quite well with its idea of a track just SE of the benchmark. The strength of the low itself is a different story.

Nice post. We've had one or two hits from each of the GFS, EC, UK, GGEM and a bunch of misses from the op and ens runs over the past week. If you take away yesterday's 12z suite, especially the EC, this whole evolution wouldn't seem so harsh.

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EC hasn't really been terribly inconsistent. It had a flip to a storm Saturday that went back to no storm Sunday night. Then it had its random bad run yesterday. Otherwise its been consistent OTS.

00z run yesterday was also pretty far west and gave the NYC area several inches with a significant hit for Long Island. Combine that with the MECS/HECS it showed yesterday and it's done a pretty awful job.

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00z run yesterday was also pretty far west and gave our area a few inches IIRC. Combine that with the MECS/HECS it showed yesterday and it's done a pretty awful job.

Am I disappointed with the EC? Yes.

Has it done horribly? I wouldn't say that... The GFS has consistently been further N and W with the system. The 0Z EC yesterday was in line with the GFS at the time. Again, other than the two runs yesterday, the EC has been OTS since Sunday night.

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Its just wierd that all the models jumped to a similar solution yesterday afternoon and then decided to go back to the previous ots solutions.

And that the shift happened at 12z yesterday, when most were expecting better sampling of the southern stream s/w. At least that's why I bit harder on one run than I normally do.

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I don't think the models can get much worse. 2 inches of liquid in NYC on the Euro yesterday. Today some flurries for Cape Cod.

Climo was against this storm from the beginning. Last year we made foot+ snowstorms look easy. We knew that wasn't going to happen again. It's just not normal for DC, philly, NYC.

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True but even experienced forecasters including the NWS jumped on board. I mean 90% chance of snow 3 days out is pretty unprecedented.

People cling to whatever model is showing the best IMBY solution for them. On 12/14 it was the 12Z GFS and on 12/16 it was the 12Z ECMWF. If you look at the big picture here, its been clear for quite awhile what was going to happen. Both of those runs were outliers and while they shouldn't be ignored, just like the euros idea of a storm near Bermuda, its much more efficant to look at the overall average. I think so far that the ensemble means has actually performed quite well with its idea of a track just SE of the benchmark. The strength of the low itself is a different story.

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I don't think the models can get much worse. 2 inches of liquid in NYC on the Euro yesterday. Today some flurries for Cape Cod.

Climo was against this storm from the beginning. Last year we made foot+ snowstorms look easy. We knew that wasn't going to happen again. It's just not normal for DC, philly, NYC.

if you take out that one fluke run of the EC, 6 of 7 runs of it had nothing for us.

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Am I disappointed with the EC? Yes.

Has it done horribly? I wouldn't say that... The GFS has consistently been further N and W with the system. The 0Z EC yesterday was in line with the GFS at the time. Again, other than the two runs yesterday, the EC has been OTS since Sunday night.

It's just so shocking that the Euro (supposedly the best model out there) would make such a terrible blunder like that, whatever the reason for it may be. And it wasn't even just the Euro that had a significant shift west yesterday, the GGEM and SREFs also did. Very strange considering that was supposedly when we were going to start getting a better sampling of the southern shortwave.

I definitely think a lot of people's faith in the Euro (and all of the models, really) will be significantly lowered because of this event...I know mine will be.

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Look what is coming for Xmas.

Can it stay cold enough?

you should hope it does because after any xmas storm the block is already breaking down and NAO is going to start its climb into the postive range as the pac jet floods the u.s with warm temperatures.

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