December 19-20 Talking Points - Part 3

[famartin]

LOL, you just had to buy that ticket.

;)lmao

I cancelled it after the 0Z EC. The 12Z EC made me jump... but its clear now. No MECS for NJ.

[tornadojay]

ok. my bad.

so lets move on......regarding the mid week potential, can we really get accumulating snow from a backing low?

With the NAM's solution, I'm not so sure this thing even ends up retrograding back. The thing is so far out to sea.. no sign of closing off, and the PV by that time is weaker and stretched out. I can't see anything, per NAM, pulling it back.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

the GFS does show juice next week with a distrubance digging into the SE CONUS, then some sort of a frontal boundry forms that causes a LOW to pop up off the delmarva. im not good enuff to say its a right or not, but the CHANCE is there i think. im just not sure what a further OTS solution this weekend system will do to that disturbance diving in from the ohio valley.

[Analog96]

With the NAM's solution, I'm not so sure this thing even ends up retrograding back. The thing is so far out to sea.. no sign of closing off, and the PV by that time is weaker and stretched out. I can't see anything, per NAM, pulling it back.

That's the key. IF this low does not bomb out and retrograde, the "storm" on Wednesday will likely just be wet snow showers. The Clipper really isn't that impressive. The whole reason it looked good was because of the retrograding bomb.

[ag3]

Here's the storm we have been following. After all this, LOL:

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That's the key. IF this low does not bomb out and retrograde, the "storm" on Wednesday will likely just be wet snow showers. The Clipper really isn't that impressive. The whole reason it looked good was because of the retrograding bomb.

so even if this wknd systems goes OTS, we still want it to bomb out and retrograde back ..... ? wouldnt that crush the mid week distrubance though to our south?

[ag3]

So there is no storm on the horizon...back to football it is.

There is one. Day 5. But who can trust that right now.

[Analog96]

so even if this wknd systems goes OTS, we still want it to bomb out and retrograde back ..... ? wouldnt that crush the mid week distrubance though to our south?

The midweek disturbance NEEDS the energy from the retrograding bomb to do much of anything, as well to increase NE winds and cool the boundary layer enough to support accumulating snow. If it can't do that, the disturbance will come through with a period of snow, and temperatures around 37 or so.

[KEITH L.I]

the GFS does show juice next week with a distrubance digging into the SE CONUS, then some sort of a frontal boundry forms that causes a LOW to pop up off the delmarva. im not good enuff to say its a right or not, but the CHANCE is there i think. im just not sure what a further OTS solution this weekend system will do to that disturbance diving in from the ohio valley.

I think that's how we're gonna get a storm this year..a clipper forming off the coast..miller B fashion..so watch those systems more than gulf ones..that's strong La Nina climo

[NEXtreme]

Steve D on his Twitter page:

Yes, I'm still writing and no the NAM doesn't mean anything to me because of the poor handling of Pacific systems on the model.

http://twitter.com/nynjpaweather

[IsentropicLift]

On hour 84 on the 12z nam I noticed there appears to be a stong S/W with alot of energy diving down through the Dakotas. Looks to me like it wants to begin to carve a trough out at that time which would promote downstream ridging, and perhaps, I'm going out on a limb here cause the trough in the east to take on more of a neutral tilt which might open the door for a deep trough to progress eastward?

[Absolute Humidity]

Pattern wise, correct me if im wrong and not to be be negative, but all I've see so far this month is a parade of lows bomboing OTS N of 40, then occluding and retrograding into Maine, giving snow showers and cold while suppressing all SECS MECS hope for NYC/Phila area way south and out to sea.

[blizzardof09]

After the past few days models runs nothing is gonna surprise me today. Writing it off is still I think premature taking the horrendous consistency with the models including "king" euro which is still flip flopping. After todays 12z gfs and euro as well as 18z those solutions for me will determine if this storm is dead for me. As I heard last night the northern wave will be onshore and sampling "should" be better and a better model consensus should occur.

[goombatommy]

After the past few days models runs nothing is gonna surprise me today. Writing it off is still I think premature taking the horrendous consistency with the models including "king" euro which is still flip flopping. After todays 12z gfs and euro as well as 18z those solutions for me will determine if this storm is dead for me. As I heard last night the northern wave will be onshore and sampling "should" be better and a better model consensus should occur.

I'll take half of what you said and say yes - due to the inconsistencies, it may be too soon to completely write it off. I'll write it off completely when its Sunday 8:00AM when I wake up and see partly cloudy skies .

[Stormlover74]

It seems like alot of people got burned by jumping on the Euro solution from yesterday. Is the Euro going to have these kinds of problems all winter I wonder or is it this particular situation? Every storm is different but I know people will be much more cautious next time around

After the past few days models runs nothing is gonna surprise me today. Writing it off is still I think premature taking the horrendous consistency with the models including "king" euro which is still flip flopping. After todays 12z gfs and euro as well as 18z those solutions for me will determine if this storm is dead for me. As I heard last night the northern wave will be onshore and sampling "should" be better and a better model consensus should occur.

[blizzardof09]

It seems like alot of people got burned by jumping on the Euro solution from yesterday. Is the Euro going to have these kinds of problems all winter I wonder or is it this particular situation? Every storm is different but I know people will be much more cautious next time around

I jumped on it too but for the euro it was a huge and unprecedented jump from out to sea to hecs solution and it raised an eyebrow when I saw it. I think today 12z euro and gfs as well as 18z gfs model too before we completely write this threat off because then all the players will be on the field,you agree?

[ChescoWx]

Even if the Euro and the other models continue to have their "issues"...it likely will not be as important to most on this site because the pattern will be flipping to a nice warm one during early January and we won't have many winter storms to track in the NE.

It seems like alot of people got burned by jumping on the Euro solution from yesterday. Is the Euro going to have these kinds of problems all winter I wonder or is it this particular situation? Every storm is different but I know people will be much more cautious next time around

[easternsnowman]

Even if the Euro and the other models continue to have their "issues"...it likely will not be as important to most on this site because the pattern will be flipping to a nice warm one during early January and we won't have many winter storms to track in the NE.

If it flips to a warm one I hope it does an 89-90 on steroids!

[IsentropicLift]

People cling to whatever model is showing the best IMBY solution for them. On 12/14 it was the 12Z GFS and on 12/16 it was the 12Z ECMWF. If you look at the big picture here, its been clear for quite awhile what was going to happen. Both of those runs were outliers and while they shouldn't be ignored, just like the euros idea of a storm near Bermuda, its much more efficant to look at the overall average. I think so far that the ensemble means has actually performed quite well with its idea of a track just SE of the benchmark. The strength of the low itself is a different story.

[bluehens]

Man there is some major straw grasping going on still today. When the red taggers are saying its over or even worse not saying anything at all then its over. Time to look forward to the next opportunity.

[phlwx]

Man there is some major straw grasping going on still today. When the red taggers are saying its over or even worse not saying anything at all then its over. Time to look forward to the next opportunity.

Until P002 on the ensembles stops showing snow, then hope is not lost.

[_AR_]

Until P002 on the ensembles stops showing snow, then hope is not lost.

6Z p002 was just a scrape of the beaches. How about p005?

[IsentropicLift]

Not getting excieted here but I just took a look at the HIRESW NMM 00 UTC and it actually doesn't look too bad.

[Allsnow]

The midweek disturbance NEEDS the energy from the retrograding bomb to do much of anything, as well to increase NE winds and cool the boundary layer enough to support accumulating snow. If it can't do that, the disturbance will come through with a period of snow, and temperatures around 37 or so.

That may be tru.....but every model that has that storm retrograding squahes that mid week disturbance to our south..........so i wonder if this is a lose lose. I rather it just be weak and get the heck out of there...so we have a chance at a miller B

[blizzardof09]

Yes exactly if they don't trend to a more nw solution as well 18z well then id say this one is outta here for sure. They made the jump yesterday and if they don't back it up well then its likely or surely a lost storm

[IsentropicLift]

Interesting commentary out of Mt Holly regarding the EC

THE 12Z MODEL RUN SUITE HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FASTER PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS AND

FOR CONFIDENCE SAKE DO NOT WANT TO WHIPLASH THE FORECAST UNTIL WE SEE THE NEXT SOUNDING RUN

PACKAGE. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF PUSHED THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE EAST AT NJ`S

LATITUDE, THE TO PHASE OR NOT TO PHASE SHORT WAVES ARE LESS THAN HALF THAT DISTANCE APART.

NOT SURPRISING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE

OPERATIONAL MODEL WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN

THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGE LOCATION AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

[SnoSki14]

I have no clue how we're even going to get a storm this winter. Either they are far too progressive or they cut well to our west. The strong blocking is actually making it less favorable for us to get snow because it suppresses the clippers much further south so places like Virginia get a few inches while we remain high and dry.

I only possible way I see us getting snow is from an overrunning system but we need a huge amount of energy crashing in from the Pacific and enough cold air and blocking in place to not allow it to cut. The only good news is that the overall winter may not be as warm as once forecast. The consistency of the blocking may point to an overall near average winter with December being the coldest, January near normal, and February could be the warmest based on your typical Nina winter pattern. Maybe we'll get that big one in March like in 2009.

From now on, the only way I'll believe we'll get snow is if the models show it 24-36 hours out because clearly they still have absolute no idea beyond that time frame, even the "so called King Euro".

It really really sucks that we're in a La Nina of this intensity because almost any other ENSO state would have been much better for us. A slightly weaker Nina would provide better results for us, a strong Nino would be amazing for us because the blocking is excellent. Basically it's like last winter where everything is set up perfectly but there's no bait available to allow us to cash in.

[Analog96]

I have no clue how we're even going to get a storm this winter. It's nearly impossible I think. Either they are far too progressive or they cut well to our west. The strong blocking is actually making it less favorable for us to get snow because it suppresses the clippers much further south so places like Virginia get a few inches while we remain high and dry.

I only possible way I see us getting snow is from an overrunning system but we need a huge amount of energy crashing in from the Pacific and enough cold air and blocking in place to not allow it to cut. The only good news is that the overall winter may not be as warm as once forecast. The consistency of the blocking may point to an overall near average winter with December being the coldest, January near normal, and February could be the warmest based on your typical Nina winter pattern. Maybe we'll get that big one in March like in 2009.

From now on, the only way I'll believe we'll get snow is if the models show it 24-36 hours out because clearly they still have absolute no idea beyond that time frame, even the "so called King Euro".

The cold air woild be the easy part.

[phlwx]

GFS is a miss as well.

[KEITH L.I]

wow,,all the red tagers are gone...this is gonna be a miss, lets feel hopeful about midweek and the Christmas threat