Saloo Kaloo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Can we get some real anylsis post instead of bitching and crying post. Anyways it looks like the s/w is better at hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Can we get some real anylsis post instead of bitching and crying post. Anyways it looks like the s/w is better at hour 24. I have been saying that for days. Stop the Whining!!!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 these are the times i wish i lived out on the Cape in SNE. they will get crushed!!!!!! yea but the other 95% of the time they see a changeover...the cape is the worst location other than Nantucket or ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks nice at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Honestly the models have been all over the place with this storm and you can't argue against this being a low confidence forecast. The difference between now and two days ago were that even though most of the models were showing OTS, it looked as if they were progressing towards a soultion which would make it more favorable for a major storm. It's all about the strength and timing of the S/W. If it comes in too weak and fast we get nothing, a tad stronger and really fast and you get the strung out mess which most of the models seem to be advertising now and if it comes in strong and more delayed you get much quicker ampification and one consolidated strong low pressure system. What's happening now on the NAM and GFS are that were getting good placing of the upper features but virtually nothing out of the S/W and now that its on land and the models are getting a good sampeling I would say this thing is over. If their was still a good storm out their that just looked to stay offshore I would be alot more optimistic because thats something that can be corrected with time but thats not the case here...and I dont see the models making a major shift in timing or strength this close in range but....stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The NAM at 39 hours has a rather flat looking solution. Broad area of low pressure forming off the southeast coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saloo Kaloo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I can't really tell whats going on all I see is 3 lows running down a line on the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nam looks much better looking on the 700mb chart. Moisture field much further NW than on 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 it looks a tad better but its still going to be OTS. Not enough amplification and I still see a strung out mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the problem is the southern stream short wave is out running the energy digging from the northwest.. there is a healthy short wave coming through Florida. The best upper divergence is out in that area. That is why its trying to form low pressure there The shortwave up north, to this point is neutral with no divergence on the lee side of the trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At 45 hours, 95% of the precip is already headed offshore with just a tad left over in eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At 45 hours, 95% of the precip is already headed offshore with just a tad left over in eastern NC redevelopment offshore perhaps? just offshore would be nice...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 redevelopment offshore perhaps? just offshore would be nice...lol unfortunately, not with this upper pattern. It's very flat. Doesn't help that all the jet energy at 250 mb is also lagged behind out west. There is no upper support to amplify it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 NAM looks terrible. strung out mess with no big low forming...all the energy is off shore, OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Is that big storm coming ashore now in CA kicking our little vort out too quickly? the problem is the southern stream short wave is out running the energy digging from the northwest.. there is a healthy short wave coming through Florida. The best upper divergence is out in that area. That is why its trying to form low pressure there The shortwave up north, to this point is neutral with no divergence on the lee side of the trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 TornadoJay, whats ur thinking on the mid week potential at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not even interested in the euro, will be a miss like all the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 TornadoJay, whats ur thinking on the mid week potential at this point? I almost forgot about anything happening after this storm. I guess I got so caught up with it that I haven't been seeing what's happening in the extended. I'll have to check that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 wow..NAM has no storm at all at 48hrs..just some moisture off the coast..I think the way we are gonna get snow here this year is with MIller B's.Southern stream moisture is lacking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Gotta be the worst run yet. Oh well, welcome to La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 that storm in California is packed with energy.. 150 -170 kt jet... The high mountains will get feet from that.. but I guess that's off topic and doesn't help us any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The models over the past few days which showed a decent hit had the slower timing as well as a decent S/W which allowed the trough to amplify further west. The key is, where does the low develop? I've noticed that the models which developed it in the western gulf had much more favorable solutions to the ones that go fot the FL panhandle. By that point, without a massive negative tilt and big time heights it has no choice but to go OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just to clarify for all the weenies out there with hopes and dreams:12Z EC yesterday was pure garbage, had the southern shortwave way too strong.0Z EC is a reality check.Might there still be snow? Yes.Will there be a MECS for this region? No LOL, you just had to buy that ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ok, I let a lot of stuff go for the last several hours because, let's be honest, the Euro was a kick in the junk. Let's get the quality of the posts back up, please. I'll be deleting posts that break the rules from here on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I almost forgot about anything happening after this storm. I guess I got so caught up with it that I haven't been seeing what's happening in the extended. I'll have to check that out. My fears for next week is that the costal that misses us is forcast to retrograde back towards boston, in return will prob squash anything coming at us from the plains...euro pretty much showed this last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 that storm in California is packed with energy.. 150 -170 kt jet... The high mountains will get feet from that.. but I guess that's off topic and doesn't help us any. 12-14 feet at Mammoth next few days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The NAM really keeps the system pretty weak throughout the whole cycle run.. It's just such a fast solution, it never has a chance to close off and intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ok, I let a lot of stuff go for the last several hours because, let's be honest, the Euro was a kick in the junk. Let's get the quality of the posts back up, please. I'll be deleting posts that break the rules from here on. ok. my bad. so lets move on......regarding the mid week potential, can we really get accumulating snow from a backing low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I've been very optimistic this entire time but with the model trends beginning with the 18z yesterday the writing was on the wall. It's funny how some of the same people that wanted to discount the euros OTS solution three days ago in favor of the GFS are the same that wanted to discount the GFS in favor of the 12z euro. At some point, reality needs to step in....this thing is going to stay pretty much off shore, and not even a shadow in terms of strength as once modeled. Now...if the GFS shows a slower timing of the S/W at 12z with enough energy at least we will have something to hang our hats on but as it stands now...this thing is over...I hope I'm wrong but I think chances right about now for the I-95 corridor to get a MECS are about equal to winning the lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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