atownwxwatcher Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The point I'm making is we have come so far, yet we still have major problems when it comes to trying to find a consensus. Not always, but frequent enough. Is it me or do the 6 Z means look better? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Is it me or do the 6 Z means look better? http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12060.gif I wan't to say it's not you. By a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I wake up from my Nyquil induced coma to see this disaster of the EURO ... i was thinking "not as great as 12z, but maybe somewhat closer"... But that solution was putrid that it spit out.. Thanks all for everyone's insight on this "storm".. ALways great info being passed along here... Seems like we're starting to narrow in on a solution. Just offshore, maybe a southern NE hit? that's what i've seen on the 12z, 0z, and 6z runs combined(MInus the 12z euro) ON the 0z EURO, how was the pacific looking for that christmas day solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not that all these models are all over the place, but we should have a good sense hopefully by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 wow EVERY model right now is an absolute mess its incrdible the amount of disagreement this close to the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Breaking down the 06Z RGEM made me realize one of the problems with this system, there may be quite a bit of convection on the south and east side of this system once it gets going, which may rob the northwestern side of the cyclone some of its moisture which makes the cut-off extremely sharp. Extrapolating the 06Z RGEM would make the KOKX CWA nearly dry for this system. Unless there is a nearly 100 mile forecasted shift of this cyclone, it is hard to see how this system would be significant for the KOKX CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Apparently just after the Euro moved way east the SREF's came back much further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Apparently just after the Euro moved way east the SREF's came back much further west We should all go to sleep, wake up Sunday night and see if its snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We should all go to sleep, wake up Sunday night and see if its snowing. Like the good old days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS trends (far less violent than the recent unfavorable flip on the Euro): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ehhhh, I wake up to a disappointing euro run.. I've seen these storms come in west within 24 hours and the TV mets are upgrading the forecasts as the storm starts to happen. I got mush for brains so I can't remember much but I believe the 96' Blizzard was just this.. the initial call was low and then as the storm started to roll in.. the call went 6-12 and then to 12+ and then to 18-24 with locally higher amounts... and finally ended up with a whopper 36 incher ! lol Keep the faith in the 12z today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethlehemBlizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ehhhh, I wake up to a disappointing euro run.. I've seen these storms come in west within 24 hours and the TV mets are upgrading the forecasts as the storm starts to happen. I got mush for brains so I can't remember much but I believe the 96' Blizzard was just this.. the initial call was low and then as the storm started to roll in.. the call went 6-12 and then to 12+ and then to 18-24 with locally higher amounts... and finally ended up with a whopper 36 incher ! lol Keep the faith in the 12z today... That's how I remember it as well. Actually, that is how I remember most MECS/HECS for our area. We'll see what happens today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I remember 96' more as NYC was going to be a miss, then a couple days before the models showed us getting hit. Remember someone on TWC (Cantore?) saying "NYC, this is your storm too" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The difference is that during the Blizzard of 1996, the low pressure was well developed while in the S.E. U.S. with a well established and large moisture inflow, meaning that a small track deviation had relatively little change on the overall forecast. This is going to be one of these 'thread the needle' storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At least I don't have to keep repeatedly hearing about the Euro being deadly in this timeframe all winter now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Game over. I knew the 12z euro was too good to be true and now we're back to cold and dry. Once again, the lack of a ridge out west is not allowing the storm to amplify fast enough to get going up here, but what else would you expect in a Nina (this is why we rarely see Miller A systems or any strongly amplified systems in a Nina of this strength). Amazingly enough, Cape May already has over an inch of snow and parts of N.C. and VA, after getting anywhere from 2-6+", could get more snow from another clipper. I looked at the 06 gfs and its long range and amazingly, it only spits out about .25" of QPF from now until 300 hours and then of course we get another Lake Cutter beyond that time frame. Oh well, these things happen and there's nothing you can do about them except to move on and accept reality. Maybe we'll get some snow on Christmas, the 06z gfs actually shows that possibility on Day 8 just like the Euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Game over. I knew the 12z euro was too good to be true and now we're back to cold and dry. Once again, the lack of a ridge out west is not allowing the storm to amplify fast enough to get going up here, but what else would you expect in a Nina (this is why we rarely see Miller A systems or any strongly amplified systems in a Nina of this strength). Amazingly enough, Cape May already has over an inch of snow and parts of N.C. and VA, after getting anywhere from 2-6+", could get more snow from another clipper. I looked at the 06 gfs and its long range and amazingly, it only spits out about .25" of QPF from now until 300 hours and then of course we get another Lake Cutter beyond that time frame. Oh well, these things happen and there's nothing you can do about them except to move on and accept reality. Maybe we'll get some snow on Christmas, the 06z gfs actually shows that possibility on Day 8 just like the Euro did. Stil a little too early to say we won't get any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 you might be completely right dude, but it is too soon to say this with any certainty. we are looking at a pretty intense system with a E/W gradient, not a N/S gradient, that still has the potential to give quite a few people at least a couple inches of snow. Game over. I knew the 12z euro was too good to be true and now we're back to cold and dry. Once again, the lack of a ridge out west is not allowing the storm to amplify fast enough to get going up here, but what else would you expect in a Nina (this is why we rarely see Miller A systems or any strongly amplified systems in a Nina of this strength). Amazingly enough, Cape May already has over an inch of snow and parts of N.C. and VA, after getting anywhere from 2-6+", could get more snow from another clipper. I looked at the 06 gfs and its long range and amazingly, it only spits out about .25" of QPF from now until 300 hours and then of course we get another Lake Cutter beyond that time frame. Oh well, these things happen and there's nothing you can do about them except to move on and accept reality. Maybe we'll get some snow on Christmas, the 06z gfs actually shows that possibility on Day 8 just like the Euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is what happens in La Nina: http://www.hpc.ncep....qpf/p120i12.gif more off the charts now bomb set to drop on Central Sierra (bullseye on Mammoth) 5 day precip totals = 14.7 .. 12-14 ft snow forecasters stepping up the language telling ppl to b safe and stay home , prepare for power outages. That 14+ inches of QPF is ALL SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks like the SREF's are coming in east. Game, set, and match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is what happens in El Nino: http://www.hpc.ncep....qpf/p120i12.gif more off the charts now bomb set to drop on Central Sierra (bullseye on Mammoth) 5 day precip totals = 14.7 .. 12-14 ft snow forecasters stepping up the language telling ppl to b safe and stay home , prepare for power outages. That 14+ inches of QPF is ALL SNOW. Did you mean La Nina? Could you image a 5-day snowstorm in the mid-Atlantic dropping that much snow, burying the DC-BOS corridor? I wonder how that would rate on the NESIS scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z NAM started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This baby is over no? we have no shot? Honestly...not ONE model has a hit now, its over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just to clarify for all the weenies out there with hopes and dreams:12Z EC yesterday was pure garbage, had the southern shortwave way too strong.0Z EC is a reality check.Might there still be snow? Yes.Will there be a MECS for this region? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This baby is over no? we have no shot? Honestly...not ONE model has a hit now, its over... Where did you hear that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Where did you hear that? haha my head...a hit though? does one model have it? NAM -no, GFS- no, SREF- no, GGEM- no, Euro - No, UK - no, Canadian - No... I also had a dream last night the storm went OTS...no joke...i feel relaxed and comfortable this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 these are the times i wish i lived out on the Cape in SNE. they will get crushed!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At this rate, it is possible, KNYC may not even see an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 these are the times i wish i lived out on the Cape in SNE. they will get crushed!!!!!! Don't be so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 anyone got a line on the NAM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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