patrick05 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 is this the new AFD?? (OKX) LOOKING AT GEFS MEMBERS WITH MEAN VIA ALPS...STILL SOME MEMBERS NEAR OR INSIDE THE BENCHMARK TO WARRANT CONCERN. HOWEVER...WITH HUGE SHIFTS IN THE ECMWF AND GGEM...I AM STARTING TO WONDER IF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ENOUGH INCONSISTENCY IN MODELS THOUGH FROM RUN TO RUN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW 50 PERCENT...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND AND SERN CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Who cares, just watch the radar and WV loop on saturday night.These models blow, clearly they have no solution. Expect a hit on the 12z Euro and a miss on the 0z. Forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Hey all, I rarely post and always watch... There was a post earlier somewhere about "if this board existed in March 2001"... I have to tell you. I was here for it. Maybe not this forum, maybe not as many mets chiming in. But, I witnessed it with all the weenies. I gotta tell you, NEVER TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED. EVERY Met busted that day. They SHUT down Manhattan. And boy howdy did everyone take a bath after that one. Let's see how it pans out people.... I love reading your comments. I don't post much, unless I have questions, but, I really don't lose hope ever.... Here were my (NYC Native) thoughts on March 2001: We waited on the storm That cold March day They said it would re-form And stay more than a day "Two feet or more," All the Mets did say "by tomorrow mornin' she'll be here to stay" "A Superstorm!", they exclaimed "It'll bury the Northeast!" "It'll top '78" "A noreaster? A beast!" Some dreamt of snow But we stayed up all night We were chatting to friends About this monster in white We waited and we paced And waited some more We looked at the radar We went to the door With all our breath bated We watched and we waited On the white hurricane That never came... Now we'll never tell how We were ever that type We're more the wise now But we ALL believed all the hype When it comes to the snow It's Sweet Ma' Nature's plan When we think we know The cards she's going to fan... We'll Remember... The White Hurricane that wasn't in her hand. ======== -Sean Dolan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 6z GFS should be starting up sometime soon. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That's a quality 1st post.. I'm impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I just woke up to look at the models. Jesus. Arguably the worst performance in consistency I've seen in the decade I've been following the GFS and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Who cares 6z GFS may show a HECS, Doesn't matter, to this point we have been given the holy grail and the gateway to hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The Euro was west than East. The GFS has been west then a bit east since then. No +pna. My bet is on an east track. just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Hey all, I rarely post and always watch... There was a post earlier somewhere about "if this board existed in March 2001"... I have to tell you. I was here for it. Maybe not this forum, maybe not as many mets chiming in. But, I witnessed it with all the weenies. I gotta tell you, NEVER TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED. EVERY Met busted that day. They SHUT down Manhattan. And boy howdy did everyone take a bath after that one. Let's see how it pans out people.... I love reading your comments. I don't post much, unless I have questions, but, I really don't lose hope ever.... Here were my (NYC Native) thoughts on March 2001: We waited on the storm That cold March day They said it would re-form And stay more than a day "Two feet or more," All the Mets did say "by tomorrow mornin' she'll be here to stay" "A Superstorm!", they exclaimed "It'll bury the Northeast!" "It'll top '78" "A noreaster? A beast!" Some dreamt of snow But we stayed up all night We were chatting to friends About this monster in white We waited and we paced And waited some more We looked at the radar We went to the door With all our breath bated We watched and we waited On the white hurricane That never came... Now we'll never tell how We were ever that type We're more the wise now But we ALL believed all the hype When it comes to the snow It's Sweet Ma' Nature's plan When we think we know The cards she's going to fan... We'll Remember... The White Hurricane that wasn't in her hand. ======== -Sean Dolan That is epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That is epic. That is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That is epic. Sean Dolan, epic stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm very flattered ALL... I've witnessed ALL your expertise!! Wrote that right after the biggest snow bust ever.... Edited thereafter. I'm always lurking...always willing to learn... And get this, my neighborhood was ground zero for the recent Tornado in Flushing, Queens....and I WASN'T HOME!!!!!!!!!!! Girlfriend was scared $hitless... I would've been flipping out. (and also scared $hitless!!) Got a spotter mention when I wrote in about a garage complex that completely collapsed in my Co-op. My neighborhood ( Kew Garden HIlls ) got WRECKED during that storm.... To this day, I still can't walk 10 feet in my co-op square without seeing some debris from that storm.... Let's see what happens with this badboy... -S That is epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 6z gfs looks to swing moisture further back west so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 6z gfs looks to swing moisture further back west so far. Looks the same as 0z to me in terms of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 HPC PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 359 AM EST FRI DEC 17 2010 VALID 12Z TUE DEC 21 2010 - 12Z FRI DEC 24 2010 USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 12Z/16 ECENS MEAN AND THE 00Z/17 GEFS MEAN FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE GFS TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE BIG EAST COAST LOW DAY 3...WHILE THE ECMWF TRENDED DRAMATICALLY EASTWARD. WITH THE FLIP-FLOPPING AND CROSSING TRENDS...FELT THE BEST OPTION ACROSS THE NATION WAS TO BLEND THE MOST RECENT MEANS FROM THE MAJOR MODELING CENTERS TO MINIMIZE ERRORS ACROSS THE NATION. CISCO Otherwise they are clueless as well ..basically what MT Holly has said as well.. INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL GFS, 7 OF 12 OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INTO THE PHL CWA. THE CAN GGEM ENSEMBLE SERIES IS ABOUT 8 OF 20. THERE WAS ONE MEMBER IN EACH CLUSTER THAT WAS FORECASTING A DOUBLE DIGIT SNOW EVENT. SO WHILE THE FAMILIES OF MODELS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM A GREATER IMPACT EVENT, THE FORECAST NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND JET STREAK WOULD STILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BACKING INTO OUR CWA. WE DID LOWER POPS SOMEWHAT, BUT NOT AS LOW AS ONE WOULD GO BASED ON JUST THE OP MODELS. THE 12Z MODEL RUN SUITE HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FASTER PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS AND FOR CONFIDENCE SAKE DO NOT WANT TO WHIPLASH THE FORECAST UNTIL WE SEE THE NEXT SOUNDING RUN PACKAGE. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF PUSHED THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE EAST AT NJ`S LATITUDE, THE TO PHASE OR NOT TO PHASE SHORT WAVES ARE LESS THAN HALF THAT DISTANCE APART. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 6z gfs looks to swing moisture further back west so far. Still looks horrible. Nothing except a glancing blow down at the New Jersey shore. I think we're slowly closing in on the fact that this thing is quite possibly going to be a non-event here. We can all dream that yesterday's 12z Euro has the solution, but it was still one run showing a favorable track out of many that have not, and from what I've read it shifted back east at 0z. I hope I'm wrong, but..... On this run, only SE VA, the southern Delmarva, and Cape Cod cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm very flattered ALL... I've witnessed ALL your expertise!! Wrote that right after the biggest snow bust ever.... Edited thereafter. I'm always lurking...always willing to learn... And get this, my neighborhood was ground zero for the recent Tornado in Flushing, Queens....and I WASN'T HOME!!!!!!!!!!! Girlfriend was scared $hitless... I would've been flipping out. (and also scared $hitless!!) Got a spotter mention when I wrote in about a garage complex that completely collapsed in my Co-op. My neighborhood ( Kew Garden HIlls ) got WRECKED during that storm.... To this day, I still can't walk 10 feet in my co-op square without seeing some debris from that storm.... Let's see what happens with this badboy... -S That was a wonderful poem, Sean, full of artistry and imagery. I was the one who mentioned March 2001 and you brought the memories of that bust rushing back! Including the second day of the storm, when we still had some hope, watching the snow backing in from the west and ended up with a paltry few inches. Small consolation for the biblical blizzard that turned into a biblical bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Still looks horrible. Nothing except a glancing blow down at the New Jersey shore. I think we're slowly closing in on the fact that this thing is quite possibly going to be a non-event here. We can all dream that yesterday's 12z Euro has the solution, but it was still one run showing a favorable track out of many that have not, and from what I've read it shifted back east at 0z. I hope I'm wrong, but..... On this run, only SE VA, the southern Delmarva, and Cape Cod cash in. But it was 2 Euro runs that showed at least a hit for NYC north (of some sorts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Makes ya think, don't it? ;-) Thanks ALEX! That was a wonderful poem, Sean, full of artistry and imagery. I was the one who mentioned March 2001 and you brought the memories of that bust rushing back! Including the second day of the storm, when we still had some hope, watching the snow backing in from the west and ended up with a paltry few inches. Small consolation for the biblical blizzard that turned into a biblical bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 But it was 2 Euro runs that showed at least a hit for NYC north (of some sorts) Correct, but.....and I may be wrong as I was at work for yesterdays 0z and didn't see many of the comments.....it was only 12z that had the nearly perfect track for all of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Correct, but.....and I may be wrong as I was at work for yesterdays 0z and didn't see many of the commentaries.....it was only 12z that had the nearly perfect track for all of I-95. [/quote You are correct but 00z last night showed at 3-6" event for the NYC metro area. Then 12z trended west, now 00z way east. Becoming more and more anowast in which you cannot trust any model even "King Euro" which has clearly gone both ways, and waffled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You are correct but 00z last night showed at 3-6" event for the NYC metro area. Then 12z trended west, now 00z way east. Becoming more and more anowast in which you cannot trust any model even "King Euro" which has clearly gone both ways, and waffled. And way back like 5 days ago the Euro was the first to bury us in snow, and then it was the GFS the next day and ever since then there have been like 4 flip flops between them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 And way back like 5 days ago the Euro was the first to bury us in snow, and then it was the GFS the next day and ever since then there have been like 4 flip flops between them. Which goes to show, just watch WV loops and the radar, this storm has been interpreted many ways by guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Weather was so much better without these models. Hair pointing up on your neck signified an electric channel is in the vicinity; where a Lightning strike is imminent while Climatic data was collected through the rings inside of trees. Wider the ring the wetter the respective year...the narrower the ring the dryer. Narrow black rings represented severe droughts. I believe the process is called dendrochronology. See it's simple, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Weather was so much better without these models. Hair pointing up on your neck signified an electric channel is in the vicinity; where a Lightning strike is imminent while Climatic data was collected through the rings inside of trees. Wider the ring the wetter the respective year...the narrower the ring the dryer. Narrow black rings represented severe droughts. I believe the process is called dendrochronology. See it's simple, lol. If only it was so simple..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If only it was so simple..... Sarcasm on my side but nonetheless those are all facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sarcasm on my side but nonetheless those are all facts. This is true but I don't want to wait over a year, nor cut a tree down to tel me how the weather year was, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is true but I don't want to wait over a year, nor cut a tree down to tel me how the weather year was, LOL. The point I'm making is we have come so far, yet we still have major problems when it comes to trying to find a consensus. Not always, but frequent enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is true but I don't want to wait over a year, nor cut a tree down to tel me how the weather year was, LOL. that would be the Fred Flintstone approach to climatology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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