earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 with our 30:1 ratios we can achieve 15 And with H85 temps of -10 C, KEWR will probably hit 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 And with H85 temps of -10 C, KEWR will probably hit 40. how much for Central LI?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 12/13/88 event was the 40 mile wide Norlun trough - dropped up to a foot of snow in west central Suffolk, rain to the east, and flurries from the Queens line west. There is a good technical discussion of this storm in the Kocin Book (Volume I) and I'm presently searching for the link to a good online article which may no longer be available. The 2/25/90 event was a big snowmaker over the East End (in excess of a foot) with lighter amounts elsewhere. Both were forecast poorly as well...the 2/25/90 event was even worse because unlike the 1988 event which was anticipated to be a miss everywhere and surprised with the norlun setup, the 1990 storm was supposed to be a big snow producer even for NYC...I believe the 24 hour forecast was good but 2-3 days earlier it was expected to be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 And with H85 temps of -10 C, KEWR will probably hit 40. on top, not only torching but epic flooding later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well the GFS still gives nyc some snow, and it came west from 18z.... Again, clinging to our only hope here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 SUNY MM 5 looks a bit suppressed out to Hour 60, but that model suppresses everything outside of 24... Its generally most useful in cases where it disagrees with the NAM since its run off the NAM's grid...so if the NAM is showing a miss and its a hit or vice versa it could mean something is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 here is the 0z gfs indiv ens tot qpf output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Does anyone remember the Jan.21st, 1987 storm? I'll never forget the Blizzard Warning being scrawled across the screen as the Giants were destroying the Broncos in SB XXI. I belive we got 8" from that one. How's that for a great night, your team wins the Super Bowl and there is a Blizzard Warning in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 The SREF's have bumped significantly northwest again, by 250 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Does anyone remember the Jan.21st, 1987 storm? I'll never forget the Blizzard Warning being scrawled across the screen as the Giants were destroying the Broncos in SB XXI. I belive we got 8" from that one. How's that for a great night, your team wins the Super Bowl and there is a Blizzard Warning in effect. You're thinking of 1/25/87....that was a Sunday night/Monday AM event mainly for LI....1/21/87 was the Wednesday or Thursday before....Newark and LaGuardia both saw a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 sref just made this harder back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 not surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Man O Man, Can we get some consistency please? Srefs coming west uses NAM data right? From why i understand, the 3z srefs have the newest data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Watch, now the 6Z NAM buries us and starts this vicious cycle all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wow..leaning heavily west again. The spread came west by about 150 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You're thinking of 1/25/87....that was a Sunday night/Monday AM event mainly for LI....1/21/87 was the Wednesday or Thursday before....Newark and LaGuardia both saw a foot. If memory serves me right, there was an LIRR strike at the time, which you know caused its own problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The SREF's have bumped significantly northwest again, by 250 miles Wow, looks like the JMA, NAM has initialized, this should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wow..leaning heavily west again. The spread came west by about 150 miles. im not shocked, if it uses 0z data which was close. I would think 9z would be the one to go off of, which would be the 6z nam, assuming this run turns out bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You're thinking of 1/25/87....that was a Sunday night/Monday AM event mainly for LI....1/21/87 was the Wednesday or Thursday before....Newark and LaGuardia both saw a foot. SG, which was the one that had a narrow heavy corridor of snow between EWR and JFK? Like 8-10 inches with much less in every other direction. It stalled out SE of eastern Long Island and was a long duration wet snow, was supposed to just be a frontal passage with flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Watch, now the 6Z NAM buries us and starts this vicious cycle all over again. Lol here we go again. I hope too many people didnt commit suicide last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Lol here we go again. I hope too many people didnt commit suicide last night. Just the weenies, which might not be a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 SG, which was the one that had a narrow heavy corridor of snow between EWR and JFK? Like 8-10 inches with much less in every other direction. It stalled out SE of eastern Long Island and was a long duration wet snow, was supposed to just be a frontal passage with flurries. Maybe 2/26/91? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Maybe 2/26/91? Thanks-- thats the one I think. We have so few late Feb storms, that one stood out-- as did the one last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the s/w on the nam is already weaker at hr 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just the weenies, which might not be a bad idea. True-- they get annoying with their model run to model run bipolar mood swings lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the s/w on the nam is already weaker at hr 18 At this point I'm not so sure how much that matters, we've seen runs where its been way stronger early only to be sheared out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 The end result will probably be the same..if something huge is going to happen it will be at 12z tomorrow and will involve the n stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At this point I'm not so sure how much that matters, we've seen runs where its been way stronger early only to be sheared out thats true, what are we watching for then, jay's theory on the s/w in the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 This run really isn't all that different from 00z...the H250 jet does seem a little better positioned..that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well the NAM is trying with the northern stream/pv..it's further west/quicker with the retrograde and has the vort over MT/UT coming in faster, but once again the S stream has crapped out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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