tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 i feel like i got done fighting a war with all you guys after these runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 bitterly cold air drops in behind the christmas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 lgt to mod snow nyc phl east and south...lgt precip everywhere else on christmas Wake me up on Christmas Eve to view the models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 KMA 00Z Hour 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 How quickly we forget, eastern L.I. had rain with thunderstorms. From a norlun? That sounds pretty unusual. I dont remember getting any sig snow (meaning 6 inches or more) in that time frame, although there were a few 4" moderate storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 so whos all staying up for 6z nam, cmon raise your hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 so whos all staying up for 6z nam, cmon raise your hand... probably me, but only cuz i have a final tommorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 so whos all staying up for 6z nam, cmon raise your hand... Another solution out of the grab bag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 so whos all staying up for 6z nam, cmon raise your hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not even referencing that I was trying to get a serious answer in regards to the dual low scenario? However...on the means in the members at 60 hrs ...not one member has the double low scenario. I be willing to bet that neither does the ECM means.... Now, according to tornadojay he thought that the presence of this low was causing the flatter look etc and robbing the storm of moisture...So if that 2nd low is not realistically part of the equation which from the means members of the GFS it does not...then would the outcome of the GFS/GGEM/ECM been different then what we are "physically " seeing tonight? I do not think this is a dumb question and very applicable to what has happened and effects the outcome at the end! Agree, not a dumb question. Personally I think the possibility of multiple low centers or a stretched out area of low pressure off the SE coast is valid. As for the ensemble means, I know they have less spatial -and probably vertical - resolution than the operational runs. So they are more likely to show a broad area of low pressure instead of two distinct centers. In terms of the implications of what you're asking, I have no idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 o yea deff a shout out to the guy who posted the larry fitz gif, even though the euro sucked i almost pissed my pants laughing at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 so whos all staying up for 6z nam, cmon raise your hand... i will... probably even the 6z GFS fwiw... good thing i'm done with finals, if not, i probably would've flunked some of them after tonight's model runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 o yea deff a shot out to the guy who posted the larry fitz gif, even though the euro sucked i almost pissed my pants laughing at that That was me, figured this thread would need a lighter atmosphere after I saw the 42 hr Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Im staying up for both the GFS and NAM, but I figure quite a few people would have photoshopped the other four fingers out of that image and just kept the middle finger up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That was me, figured this thread would need a lighter atmosphere after I saw the 42 hr Euro. that was great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 00Z JMA Hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I will be, I am at work so I am up anyway. lol so whos all staying up for 6z nam, cmon raise your hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Im staying up for both the GFS and NAM, but I figure quite a few people would have photoshopped the other four fingers out of that image and just kept the middle finger up well im with you in staying up for at-least the nam, and the gfs, but after that im punching the pillow depending on what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 well im with you in staying up for at-least the nam, and the gfs, but after that im punching the pillow depending on what happens. Well, that means going to bed somewhere around 5:30 in the morning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 There were two: 12/13/88 and 2/25/1990. Was one of those the storms that stalled just offshore (formed on a cold front that was supposed to be an innocuous passage?) I remember that one William. My best memory from the late 80s lol. Snowed for 24 hours straight in what was supposed to be just a few snow showers! Temps were borderline during the day, but it really got going at night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 00Z JMA doesn't go past 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The colors are quite pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The model coaster continues, the only consolation I can give myself now and would perhaps encourage others to consider is that all possibilities are still open and I don't think there will be a nail in the coffin until the event is just a day away if not on the day itself. I say this because there has just been too much inconstancy with this thing all around. There are so many players on the stage to make this storm work: two short waves, one in the southern stream, the other in the northern, then the movement of the PV, and all these things have to come together just right, and apparently all of that is just too much for the models to handle. I don't care either for the notion that the models now have enough sampling data and thus they must now be more correct. There have been many storms that the Euro has honed in on well like it normally does before all of the factors of those storms were sampled over land correctly. With the Euro, it has not always depended on waiting for good sampling before it did well to forecast a storm. This set up is a different beast however, and I still think we can't nail down anything until we see better model consistency, and at the rate we are going, that might not be achievable till the day of the storm itself. This all sucks, but I'll keep praying for it, and I won't be surprised if we are all back on this thing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 00Z JMA doesn't go past 72 hours. yea i know i caught it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 JMA, weather porn at its finest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 JMA, weather porn at its finest You know it's bad when 0.5" QPF is now weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not even referencing that I was trying to get a serious answer in regards to the dual low scenario? We see it on the GFS at 60 hrs... We seen in on the NAM around the same time frame... We seen it on the GGEM as well & if i was a betting individual i would say the UKMET has it to... We seen it on the ECM... However...on the means in the members at 60 hrs ...not one member has the double low scenario. I be willing to bet that neither does the ECM means.... Now, according to tornadojay he thought that the presence of this low was causing the flatter look etc and robbing the storm of moisture...So if that 2nd low is not realistically part of the equation which from the means members of the GFS it does not...then would the outcome of the GFS/GGEM/ECM been different then what we are "physically " seeing tonight? It would, however they are there at 48 and 54 and perhaps the low res of the individual members blurs the lows unlike the hi res operational. That being said, theres still several members that consolidate the dbb lows much quicker (see P004) resulting in a more western single bomb MECS and many others hopelessly out to sea with no real amplification. Perhaps tomorrow when the northern stream is better sampled we will see yet an another solution, east or west seems likely as each run is keying on defferent features. We are running out of time but I don't think were done yet. I do not think this is a dumb question and very applicable to what has happened and effects the outcome at the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You know it's bad when 0.5" QPF is now weather porn. pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You know it's bad when 0.5" QPF is now weather porn. with our 30:1 ratios we can achieve 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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