ARyan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'd be intrigued if we could somehow ingest recorded data into the models from previous historic and near miss storms to see how well the models of today would have handled those storms. You can. I might do my capstone on a historic east coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the sick thing is everyone who has viewed this thread in the past hour is going to be back for the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 P004 shows snowstorms in July..unreal Frame six is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSnowstorm Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I wouldn't write this one off yet guys...I think tomorrows runs will be much better than todays as far as consistency...lets face it...the northern stream part of the event is not even in the data network yet and the southern branch shortwave is the only one that is getting readily sampled at the moment...in addition, the timing of the phasing of the northern and southern streams is the key to this event and those details will be panned out tomorrow once the northern stream enters into our RAOB network...so, don't worry yet...worry tomorrow night if things are looking rough ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I remember that storm distinctly. I took the day off from school just to see it-- and ended up with a virga storm lol. Our science teacher back then was a major GW person and told us we had probably seen our last major snowstorm LOL That was in the middle of the major snowstorm drought of the mid-80's to the superstorm of 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 i've come to this conclusion, no more radio shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sort of happened with Gloria, where the NHC said its winds east of KACY were 125 mph, where they clearly weren't that high. I remember that one too-- the news was blaring about how Long Island would be destroyed and during the storm, about how dangerous its backside would be. The eye actually opened up right over us and there wasnt a true backside-- which is not that uncommon as these storms transition to extratropical at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSnowstorm Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 good for you!!! that's awesome...congratulations...I just finished mine for SYNOPTIC the other day...it was TOUGH... one. But I passed, and that's all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 ruh roh hr 198 has poss christmas day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 i've come to this conclusion, no more radio shows I said the same thing the other day, seems whenever a radio show is broadcast it goes all downhill from that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That was in the middle of the major snowstorm drought of the mid-80's to the superstorm of 1993. 1989 had February 1989 and December 1989-- looking back on it, those were two of the most horrid snow tease months I can think of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the sick thing is everyone who has viewed this thread in the past hour is going to be back for the 12z runs ...and some for the 6z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think i'm going to hit the bar tomorrow night for a cold one, actually make that TWENTY cold ones, nothing wrong with drowning my sorrows for the night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 good for you!!! that's awesome...congratulations...I just finished mine for SYNOPTIC the other day...it was TOUGH... Thanks! I can't wait for synoptic. I also find it fitting that I was thrown a curve ball for my dynamics exam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 one. But I passed, and that's all that matters. Congrats! There's a lesson to be learned here-- be happy about the things you can control and shrug off that which you cant (like the weather.) It's much easier to remain sane that way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 christmas day snow at hr 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 1989 had February 1989 and December 1989-- looking back on it, those were two of the most horrid snow tease months I can think of. Actually on of L.I.'s biggest snowstorms during that period was the norlun trough surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 http://raleighwx.ame...rs/00zf060.html Still enough spread to hold interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 ruh roh hr 198 has poss christmas day storm "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me". Gomer Pyle MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm sure they would do better (if you assume microwave satellites were available back then), but there are still way too many microscale interactions that will keep an operational model limited (chaos, as you said). Definitely-- there are probably a few that would still be missed, but the hit percentage should be much higher, especially within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 210 lgt to mod snow i80 south on christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Stop torturing us like this or else you will find coal in your Christmas stocking. ruh roh hr 198 has poss christmas day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Actually on of L.I.'s biggest snowstorms during that period was the norlun trough surprise. Im thinking that was for eastern long island lol. Im on the western side. There is a media misconception that eastern long island gets less snow than the city-- actually, the reverse is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 christmas day snow at hr 204 Yea and if that pans out i will dress as santa and bring you my ho's . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 lgt to mod snow nyc phl east and south...lgt precip everywhere else on christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 210 lgt to mod snow i80 south on christmas cant even get something right inside 3 days let alone showing a threat at hr 210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Im thinking that was for eastern long island lol. Im on the western side. How quickly we forget, eastern L.I. had rain with thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 3-6 inches for christmas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Congrats! There's a lesson to be learned here-- be happy about the things you can control and shrug off that which you cant (like the weather.) It's much easier to remain sane that way lol. Thanks! Control...right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Still enough spread to hold interest. Not even referencing that I was trying to get a serious answer in regards to the dual low scenario? We see it on the GFS at 60 hrs... We seen in on the NAM around the same time frame... We seen it on the GGEM as well & if i was a betting individual i would say the UKMET has it to... We seen it on the ECM... However...on the means in the members at 60 hrs ...not one member has the double low scenario. I be willing to bet that neither does the ECM means.... Now, according to tornadojay he thought that the presence of this low was causing the flatter look etc and robbing the storm of moisture...So if that 2nd low is not realistically part of the equation which from the means members of the GFS it does not...then would the outcome of the GFS/GGEM/ECM been different then what we are "physically " seeing tonight? I do not think this is a dumb question and very applicable to what has happened and effects the outcome at the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.