December 19-20 Talking Points - Part 3

[A-L-E-X]

I dunno, the cold pattern doesn't seem to want to break down, just snow is lacking.

It seems somewhat reminiscent of the 89-90 winter, except we never got that November snowstorm-- however we may be about to get that near miss that we got in Dec 89.  We have yet to get the storm that was forecast to be a major snowstorm for us, but the secondary developed too close to the coast and snow changed to rain within a couple of hours of starting.  Let's see if the pattern flips in a major way in the New Year's time frame like it did back then.

[jm1220]

Don't worry, you'll have plenty of hours to sleep in January. And given the pattern you'll probably be nice and warm too.

Believe it or not this might actually help us when the inevitable SW Flow/lake cutter train starts next month. Maybe the storms will still be too amplified and keep us in snow for longer?

[tombo82685]

nc and va get snow at hr 132 from the storm crushed to the south

[A-L-E-X]

lol La Nina ftl. So unexpected to have two lows, just came out of nowhere, but I guess the better data aided in depicting that weaker s/w in the gulf messing with this.

A weak la nina and this would have been 95-96 all over again, especially after the el nino from last year.

[Sn0waddict]

the strom retrograding in maine crushes the next threat south

Figures

Soooo now that all the good models are unfavorable, whats the 0z Brazilian model saying?

[A-L-E-X]

nc and va get snow at hr 132 from the storm crushed to the south

I wonder if this winter will somehow be eerily reminiscent of the hurricane season, where we had two common tracks-- one hitting central america and/or mexico and the other bermuda to OTS.  In this case, it would be storms either hitting the southern mid atlantic or retrograding into maine

[Nikolai]

this is one of the worst nights in winter wx history, I am ever so crushed

:(

[Allsnow]

hr 138 light snow into NYC from the retrograding low.........boston gets about .50 over a 4 days span.....

[earthlight]

I am ever so crushed

:axe:

[Rtd208]

Dare I say it??..I can't wait for the Euro ensembles to come out.

[famartin]

Figures

Soooo now that all the good models are unfavorable, whats the 0z Brazilian model saying?

If it was 4 years ago, a friend of mine where I used to work then would have said "Hold out for the 2Z Azerbaijanian!"

[bass28]

at least we have the JMA on our side haha.

[Sn0waddict]

Dare I say it??..I can't wait for the Euro ensembles to come out.

At this rate the mean will probably be over Bermuda.

[tmagan]

this is one of the worst nights in winter wx history, I am ever so crushed

:(

The meteorologists version of 'Remember the Alamo' is 'Remember Presidents Day Week 1989' which was 10,000 times worse than this.

[earthlight]

The meteorologists version of 'Remember the Alamo' is 'Remember Presidents Day Week 1989' which was 10,000 times worse than this.

This is 2010....we have amazing models such as the 1km WRF-NMM which can detect my farts on the vertical velocity...this shouldn't happen.

[eduggs]

Well this night ends similarly to last night. Looking forward to tomorrow's westward recoil and a significant last minute correction in the strength of the s/w moving from Mo - Tn valley - and NC coast! GN and GL

[A-L-E-X]

This is 2010....we have amazing models such as the 1km WRF-NMM which can detect my farts on the vertical velocity...this shouldn't happen.

We just dont understand the complex interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere as much as we think we do.  Chaos also plays a role.....

[am19psu]

We just dont understand the complex interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere as much as we think we do.  Chaos also plays a role.....

Non-linear interactions FTW

[A-L-E-X]

The meteorologists version of 'Remember the Alamo' is 'Remember Presidents Day Week 1989' which was 10,000 times worse than this.

Are you talking about the Feb 1989 storm that crushed ACY with 20 inches, gave Long Island 2-5 inches and nothing in Philly?

[tmagan]

We just dont understand the complex interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere as much as we think we do. Chaos also plays a role.....

I have a feeling this plays a role since the run-to-run variability was more than the midwest cyclone a week ago.

[atownwxwatcher]

So from reading posts from tornadojay for example it could be that second area of low pressure that the models show ..for example around 60 hrs on the GFS?

Looking at the individual members of the GFS means at 60 hrs ...it does not show that scenario

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf060.html

So if that was the culprit...and that is not actually realistic ...would the outcome be different?

[cnjraider]

hr 138 light snow into NYC from the retrograding low.........boston gets about .50 over a 4 days span.....

Even though noone may be interested, what happens at after hour 138?

[A-L-E-X]

Non-linear interactions FTW

I'd be intrigued if we could somehow ingest recorded data into the models from previous historic and near miss storms to see how well the models of today would have handled those storms.

[tmagan]

Are you talking about the Feb 1989 storm that crushed ACY with 20 inches, gave Long Island 2-5 inches and nothing in Philly?

Three hours, three hours before the event at least a foot of snow was forecasted. I still to this day remember Glen Schwartz saying this storm meets 12 out of 15 checkpoints on the major winter storm flow chart.

[HSNN4]

Could you imagine a Cat 3 coming up the east coast showing this kind of variability on the models? It would be a media disaster! I dont know if thats ever happened (their rarity in general being the reason why.)

There is a weather media disaster every night in the NY market, station names withheld to protect the innocent.

[earthlight]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf060.html

P004 shows snowstorms in July..unreal

[am19psu]

I'd be intrigued if we could somehow ingest recorded data into the models from previous historic and near miss storms to see how well the models of today would have handled those storms.

I'm sure they would do better (if you assume microwave satellites were available back then), but there are still way too many microscale interactions that will keep an operational model limited (chaos, as you said).

[Allsnow]

Get on board my train for 24 hours...if you don't like it, then I'll concede...but we are seeing massive shifts from run to run...if the Euro ensemble mean at 84 hours is going to flip by 300 miles, we know there is something very difficult about this system.

Even the vaunted Euro doesn't have enough armor to protect itself from this volatile pattern...the run to run swings from every model (including the Euro) have been staggering. Wes mentioned it on the radio show and I agreed....this is a very difficult pattern to resolve.

One thing majorly in our favor is that this trough on EVERY model is going negative with a decent vortmax at the based of it...whether its Virginia or south carolina, I think that would still produce a good event here...with differences being just how big and how far west. I will not be surprised to see future guidance come in with a much better looking sfc as it reflects off the better sampling of the vortmax at the base of the trough.

Give it a bit of time...we still have some ways to go...the same reason I told you were being way bullish on the HECS is the same reason now I'm telling to not get too worked up over one model suite. The changes have been drastic.

We can probably go through about 500 posts in the past 3 or 4 days with people claiming victory or defeat based on one run....obviously as we get closer, it matters more what they show, but we still have a lot of time before its a closed deal.

When he says decent event he is talking about sne....but this was def a real good post to read...if anything might make u guys sleep better

[tmagan]

There is a weather media disaster every night in the NY market, station names withheld to protect the innocent.

Sort of happened with Gloria, where the NHC said its winds east of KACY were 125 mph, where they clearly weren't that high.

[A-L-E-X]

Three hours, three hours before the event at least a foot of snow was forecasted. I still to this day remember Glen Schwartz saying this storm meets 12 out of 15 checkpoints on the major winter storm flow chart.

I remember that storm distinctly.  I took the day off from school just to see it-- and ended up with a virga storm lol.  Our science teacher back then was a major GW person and told us we had probably seen our last major snowstorm LOL