tmagan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Always nice to look at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 And they also talking about snow lingering through Tuesday so probably adding to the amounts. Sometimes, you have to read between the lines lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Correct me if I'm wrong but that's only through Sunday evening correct? That does show the "significant" snowstorm they were talking about from the city on east. I would say that 0.5 qpf is the border of what I would call "significant" with 12:1 ratios, that's 6 inches. Peak of 0.86, which would be around 10 inches.... so there's your forecast of 6-10" right there (if that's what theyre thinking.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Always nice to look at: http://www.cpc.ncep....ats/threats.gif Looks a lot like last year at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Always nice to look at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.gif Oh, I like seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Correct me if I'm wrong but that's only through Sunday evening correct? Yeah, 7 PM I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Oh, I like seeing that. YH, time to get the backyard cam out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 HPC says NJ, NYC, Western LI in JP http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 That does show the "significant" snowstorm they were talking about from the city on east. I would say that 0.5 qpf is the border of what I would call "significant" with 12:1 ratios, that's 6 inches. Peak of 0.86, which would be around 10 inches.... so there's your forecast of 6-10" right there (if that's what theyre thinking.) Anything east of Hackettstown,NJ looks to be in that 0.5 qpf range at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Last year this same exact 18z run 1 year ago, the Nam was the only model to show Dec 19, 2009 as a big hit at 84hrs. Today NAM 18z shows a track way way east. Do we worry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 18Z UKMET has snow just south of here at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 gfs through 36 looks less amplified compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 That does show the "significant" snowstorm they were talking about from the city on east. I would say that 0.5 qpf is the border of what I would call "significant" with 12:1 ratios, that's 6 inches. Peak of 0.86, which would be around 10 inches.... so there's your forecast of 6-10" right there (if that's what theyre thinking.) Thats only to 7pm Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 18Z UKMET has snow just south of here at hour 72. GFS a tad more amplified compared to 12z at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Onto the GFS now. I think we'll see some more swings both ways the next two cycles before more of a consensus tomorrow afternoon. I was abit disappointed the GGEM ensembles were east, but they too trended better than prior runs. Lets hope subsequent runs cotninrue the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 gfs through 36 looks less amplified compared to 12z I've never seen a storm with so many flip flops..amazing can Euro be wrong again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 gfs through 36 looks less amplified compared to 12z GFS a tad more amplified compared to 12z at 24 lol, that is classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 18Z UKMET has snow just south of here at hour 72. 12z UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 we're talking about off hour runs of the GFS......im NOT gonna weigh the trends with it. tonites EURO run will be THE RUN to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 lol, that is classic He's at 36 my boy- and he is right. However the PV is further NW, so heights are a bit higher in east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm thinking the Euro was a bit too extreme today..18z nam went the opposite way and it looks like the 18z gfs is trending less amplified than 12z, also the opposite way. very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 He's at 36 my boy- and he is right. However the PV is further NW, so heights are a bit higher in east. Never said I didnt agree That PV is more NW. on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 we're talking about off hour runs of the GFS......im NOT gonna weigh the trends with it. tonites EURO run will be THE RUN to watch! For the millionth time, it has been shown that for years now the 06Z/18Z runs are just as accurate as 12Z and 00Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm thinking the Euro was a bit too extreme today..18z nam went the opposite way and it looks like the 18z gfs is trending less amplified than 12z, also the opposite way. very interesting. Definitely looks less amplified on the 18z GFS compared to the 12z GFS...southern stream isn't digging as much although the PV position may be slightly more advantageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 For the millionth time, it has been shown that for years now the 06Z/18Z runs are just as accurate as 12Z and 00Z runs. that has to be one of the top weenie phrases i love the fact that people tell themselves that to make themselves feel better or have more hope...it's not true at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Definitely looks less amplified on the 18z GFS compared to the 12z GFS...southern stream isn't digging as much although the PV position may be slightly more advantageous. wow. markedly so.PV though is NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 When we are awaiting models can we ask that no comments be made about models unless its a Met, John or Tombo? Especially when there is a possible storm I think everyone would enjoy that. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 wow. markedly so.PV though is NW I actually don't think it's really less amplified, I think everything has just shifted north... not by much, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 wow. markedly so.PV though is NW Not markedly so, very slightly. And we're only 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 To me it looked like the 700 mb RH was similar to the Euro also. But i dont know if that means much in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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