NittanyWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 End of the year vacation days to kill FTW Guess who decided to use them for a few extra days around Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It seems you have been saying this almost every run---terrible consistency with the models on this threat. MDstorm But this was expected considering a questionable chunk of a sprawling and retrograding PV complex is/was progged to drop into a deepening longwave trof with uncertain "southern stream" s/w involvement. I remember reading and writing specifically that huge model flips would be the rule. And I expect these oscillations to continue, with decreasing amplitude. Each individual run is kind of like reaching into a bag of ensemble members and picking out a single run. The spread is a rough indication of the possible solutions next time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I've never seen anything like this before, I know people are going to hold on to the "back and forth" idea and hope it can come back..but with everything sampled I think this is pretty much it. It just so happened to end on the wrong flip. or flop. I've only been in the real world for three winters, but this clearly takes the cake. Just unbelievable. I need to stick to hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 So much for the euro being deadly. its still deadly-- but for snow weenies (as usual.) It takes away snow threats when other models present them, but when its the one presenting the snow threat-- it could end up being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Precious sleep wasted. Looks like I won't be posting Upton radar links this sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I've only been in the real world for three winters, but this clearly takes the cake. Just unbelievable. I need to stick to hurricanes. I really think hurricanes are easier to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well I would still like to give it a couple of more model runs before completely throwing in the towel, but the towel is in my hand and the fat lady is warming up her voice in the background. I've never seen anything like this before, I know people are going to hold on to the "back and forth" idea and hope it can come back..but with everything sampled I think this is pretty much it. It just so happened to end on the wrong flip. or flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I've only been in the real world for three winters, but this clearly takes the cake. Just unbelievable. I need to stick to hurricanes. It's been a few more for me...but I have never seen the Euro this inconsistent within this modeling period. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I've only been in the real world for three winters, but this clearly takes the cake. Just unbelievable. I need to stick to hurricanes. Could you imagine a Cat 3 coming up the east coast showing this kind of variability on the models? It would be a media disaster! I dont know if thats ever happened (their rarity in general being the reason why.) * Hurricane Floyd back in 1999 actually did show a lot of variability on the models... as did Edouard back in 1996 I cant quickly remember one that went from OTS to a major hit though-- unless you go to the pre satellite era and include Sept 1938. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Precious sleep wasted. Don't worry, you'll have plenty of hours to sleep in January. And given the pattern you'll probably be nice and warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We go from a HECS to a flat storm. It was way too early to get very excited. I took a quick peek at this board after the 12z run, and decided to not say anything. There was just too much happiness. It's crazy how excited people get at models runs that are for a storm that is still a few days out. With how incredibly inconsistent the models are, I just can't see getting too excited when they show a hit or too depressed when they show a miss. The solution will be different the next run. It's just a waste of energy getting hyped up over model runs that are a few days out or more. It would be different if we had reliable models, but we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Don't worry, you'll have plenty of hours to sleep in January. And given the pattern you'll probably be nice and warm too. I wouldn't bet on much warmth for any sustained length of time the way we've been going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I really think hurricanes are easier to forecast. Maybe... but Edouard and Floyd were major headaches in the 90s lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Don't worry, you'll have plenty of hours to sleep in January. And given the pattern you'll probably be nice and warm too. I dunno, the cold pattern doesn't seem to want to break down, just snow is lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Maybe... but Edouard and Floyd were major headaches in the 90s lol. Edouard was. Floyd was not really forecast all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 108 in retrogrades our missed costal back towards maine....which will prob squash anything that trys to get to us from the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 In the end, Climatology wins again and that's why u RARELY get blizzards in strong La Nina's. All we needed was somewhat of a ridge over the west to let this dig, but the pacific has been crap thanks to the La Nina and -PDO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It almost makes you wonder why we have these models in the first place. 60 hours out, there's as much flipflopping as you would expect 180 hours out. Maybe now we should just toss darts at a wall? Well the basic idea of an east coast gale was nailed down days ago. Obviously the sensible weather for people living on land is highly dependent on the track of specific features, which are much more difficult to model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It's coming back west folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Don't worry, you'll have plenty of hours to sleep in January. And given the pattern you'll probably be nice and warm too. Well, I'm not sure about that. But the frustration for this event has been some of the worst we've had. I've luckily only had time to follow the event since Wednesday night, however the model inconsistency this week has been insane. I wonder if it has something to do w/ the models being clueless about a record -NAO/AO pattern coupled with a strong la nina, considering it basically hasn't happened since the 1960s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Edouard was. Floyd was not really forecast all that bad. I remember Floyd being a near-Cat 5 off the SE coast and people were worried it would be a historic storm, but then it meandered out there for days and weakened to a Cat 2 before hitting the Carolinas. Oh, speaking of that, I just remembered there was another one just a few years ago that was supposed to hit us, but hit down in Virginia instead-- I cant remember the name of it offhand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Seriously? I hope they gave you all your money back. So they said. Haven't seen it on my account yet. Now that you cancelled, watch this come west tomorrow We're actually still more than 48 hours away from this, but the window is rapidly closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At 120, some light snow from the retrograde in SNE but nothing this far west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, I'm not sure about that. But the frustration for this event has been some of the worst we've had. I've luckily only had time to follow the event since Wednesday night, however the model inconsistency this week has been insane. I wonder if it has something to do w/ the models being clueless about a record -NAO/AO pattern coupled with a strong la nina, considering it basically hasn't happened since the 1960s. My post was supposed to be sarcastic given everybody calling for a torch, apparently I am as good at being sarcastic as the models are at being consistent. Frustration level..yes, probably highest it's been in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Remember when the Euro only ran once per day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, I'm not sure about that. But the frustration for this event has been some of the worst we've had. I've luckily only had time to follow the event since Wednesday night, however the model inconsistency this week has been insane. I wonder if it has something to do w/ the models being clueless about a record -NAO/AO pattern coupled with a strong la nina, considering it basically hasn't happened since the 1960s. I don't think the amount of time that has passed has anything to do with it. Models just suck at the extremes of blocking patterns and high speed flow, in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Break out last year's blizzard photo album and curl up on the couch with a cup of hot chocolate, you will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Don't worry, you'll have plenty of hours to sleep in January. And given the pattern you'll probably be nice and warm too. lol La Nina ftl. So unexpected to have two lows, just came out of nowhere, but I guess the better data aided in depicting that weaker s/w in the gulf messing with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I remember Floyd being a near-Cat 5 off the SE coast and people were worried it would be a historic storm, but then it meandered out there for days and weakened to a Cat 2 before hitting the Carolinas. Oh, speaking of that, I just remembered there was another one just a few years ago that was supposed to hit us, but hit down in Virginia instead-- I cant remember the name of it offhand. Isabel. But those I don't consider huge busts, because they really fell within the window of model biases. Edouard was a complete bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the strom retrograding in maine crushes the next threat south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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