December 19-20 Talking Points - Part 3

[Collegestudent11]

hr 72 sub 1004 low 350 miles or so east of nj

Well for snow lovers that cannot be good.

[BL03]

I can't remember a time the models were so bad ...so different each run. Amazing the last storm and this one, the modeling has been just terrible.

[Allsnow]

hr 78 light snow on the cape

[earthlight]

I cancelled my flight.

It's coming back west folks.

[A-L-E-X]

Its over... I cancelled my flight.

Seriously?  I hope they gave you all your money back.

Now that you cancelled, watch this come west tomorrow  We're actually still more than 48 hours away from this, but the window is rapidly closing.

[am19psu]

Looks like we will not be needing any temporary moderators .

Well, I meant my real job, but yes, that too

[MJO812]

At least I saved the 12z run

[Rainshadow]

The lack of consistency throughout this has been pretty unbelievable.

I think it sets an all time record. The 12hr ecmwf forecast in the desert sw was poorer (as in too deep with the trof) than either the gfs and nam.

[Allsnow]

much precip get back into va nc?

none in VA...a little on the coast of NC

[Zir0b]

this may become a nowcasting event...something the models will never be able to ahold of...not even 12-24 hours before the storm lol

nah...s/w is in a well sampled region...all 3 4DVAR models are a disaster....

here's a gif to close us out

[Analog96]

this is absolutely shocking how different this is from 12z at h5, unbelievable

So much for the euro being deadly.

[jm1220]

hr 66 has 2 1004 seperate areas of low pressure 100 miles from each other about 200-250 miles east of hse

So obviously the Gulf wave is coming into play again and screwing it up. But if the flow is that flat as you advertised, it might not even matter.

We have 12z tomorrow and maybe 0z tomorrow PM to fix this and correct west. It's probably 95% chance of being over now, but if the models are still like this tomorrow night it's almost 100%.

[Isotherm]

Its over... I cancelled my flight.

That was our problem all along...now at least we have a fighting chance.

[Radders]

I am actually laughing about how bad this is... The SNE crew must be on the floor right now.

[Ji]

I assume the dc storm at 132 is gone too

[ravensrule]

Well, I meant my real job, but yes, that too

Two reasons i never went into meteorology one is im not smart enough and two i could never deal with this as my full time job. I feel for you.

[Rtd208]

Get ready for a blizzard. lol

Its over... I cancelled my flight.

[earthlight]

I think it sets an all time record. The 12hr ecmwf forecast in the desert sw was poorer (as in too deep with the trof) than either the gfs and nam.

I've never seen anything like this before, I know people are going to hold on to the "back and forth" idea and hope it can come back..but with everything sampled I think this is pretty much it. It just so happened to end on the wrong flip. or flop.

[A-L-E-X]

These model solutions are so erratic it's hilarious (in a very annoying way) but at the same time shows the complexity of this event. We can't buy two model runs in a row with similar outputs, which also tells me it's not time to give up on this just yet. At least not until we have a full cycle of similar solutions for God's sake!

It makes me wonder how something like Feb 78 was forecasted well from a week away over 30 years ago.

That was even more extreme, we went from a really horrid forecast in the Jan 78 east coast blizzard three weeks prior to that, to possibly the most well modeled major east coast snowstorm of that era in Feb 78....and back to bad forecast with PD1 the following winter.

[NittanyWx]

I can't help but laugh at how silly my job is

I can't wait to walk into the office tomorrow to check the 30 odd voicemails I will no doubt receive from our clients.

[Analog96]

I assume the dc storm at 132 is gone too

It's not out that far.

[Allsnow]

nah...s/w is in a well sampled region...all 3 4DVAR models are a disaster....

here's a gif to close us out

ur def one of my favorite posters

[jm1220]

These model solutions are so erratic it's hilarious (in a very annoying way) but at the same time shows the complexity of this event. We can't buy two model runs in a row with similar outputs, which also tells me it's not time to give up on this just yet. At least not until we have a full cycle of similar solutions for God's sake!

It almost makes you wonder why we have these models in the first place. 60 hours out, there's as much flipflopping as you would expect 180 hours out. Maybe now we should just toss darts at a wall?

[am19psu]

I can't wait to walk into the office tomorrow to check the 30 odd voicemails I will no doubt receive from our clients.

End of the year vacation days to kill FTW

[tombo82685]

hr 90 has a sub 992 300 miles east of cape cod

[A-L-E-X]

I've never seen anything like this before, I know people are going to hold on to the "back and forth" idea and hope it can come back..but with everything sampled I think this is pretty much it. It just so happened to end on the wrong flip. or flop.

I still think 2/6/10 was worse John, but this could be considered even more extreme in the sense that its going from major hit for everyone to basically no snow for anyone lol.

[bluewave]

This is s situation where the 18z runs can give a nice heads up for 0z .

[NJHurricane]

just a reminder...for those that feel the need to just vent...this thread is open 24-7 in OT....thanks

[earthlight]

But if the flow is that flat as you advertised, it might not even matter.

It doesn't matter at all. The shortwave was ridiculously overamplified by the 12z run at 12 hours. The initialization of this run showed that right away.

[Analog96]

It almost makes you wonder why we have these models in the first place. 60 hours out, there's as much flipflopping as you would expect 180 hours out. Maybe now we should just toss darts at a wall?

I was starting to think that... it almost seems like forecasting at 72 hours+ out is not much better than it was years ago, I'm talking the '90s, not WAY back!