am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 this is absolutely shocking how different this is from 12z at h5, unbelievable I mean, it is like night and day. This is not anything close to what I thought it would look. It's a complete disaster, to borrow a Ji-phrase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This run is comically flat at T+48 Yep. Probably 95% chance at an epic fail now. It's almost like a nightmare to see the model go from burying us in 2 feet of powder to shrouding us in maybe 2 feet of cirrus clouds 30K feet up in one run. I think maybe these strong ENSO patterns throw a ton of chaos at the models that is extremely difficult to resolve, since we saw the same problem last year in a massive Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 :lmao: This is seriously funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 60 has a sub 1008 low 150 miles east of the outer banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That is about how I feel, but I will let the euro finish. At 60, a pathetic looking surface low is starting to escape out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 SNE might be screwed on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 60 has a sub 1008 low 150 miles east of the outer banks how far west is the precip in nc and va? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 60 has a sub 1008 low 150 miles east of the outer banks Sounds like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I mean, it is like night and day. This is not anything close to what I thought it would look. It's a complete disaster, to borrow a Ji-phrase. So this is the third flip flop then? First it was euro-west gfs-east, then it was gfs-west euro-east, then it was euro-west, gfs-east for like 24 hours and now the third change, now its back to gfs-west euro east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 this is absolutely shocking how different this is from 12z at h5, unbelievable It seems you have been saying this almost every run---terrible consistency with the models on this threat. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 ................................................................... I've never seen such a shift in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 SNE might be screwed on this run hr 66 the euro has that double low like the rest of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 66 has 2 1004 seperate areas of low pressure 100 miles from each other about 200-250 miles east of hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 SNE might be screwed on this run Correction: SNE is screwed on this run. Put the knives away, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yep, SNE in trouble... This is absolutely shocking. Watch it come back west tomorrow LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 this is absolutely shocking how different this is from 12z at h5, unbelievable Too much going on for the models from the blocking,splitting PV,multiple vorts,and firehose jet coming into the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 this may become a nowcasting event...something the models will never be able to ahold of...not even 12-24 hours before the storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We better hope we start seeing some good things on the models beginning at 6z and again at 12z if we want to see a snowstorm, so much for saying a prayer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The lack of consistency throughout this has been pretty unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 72 sub 1004 low 350 miles or so east of nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I can't help but laugh at how silly my job is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 combined with GGEM not good...now the GFS/NAM look like they were just behind the trends instead of falling into place. Will be interested to see if HPC backs off in their early disco packages...and if not what their justification would be for holding the rather bullish line they have had today. It's almost impossible to make an objective forecast with models that are this inconsistent. I have no clue what could be causing this issue, data sparcity, chaos from too many shortwaves, who knows, but this issue seems to be arising with storms this winter too. It's almost impossible to trust anything they say more than 48 hours out anymore. So much for the rock solid, lock-it-in Euro under 96 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Two lows, guess the NAM and GFS weren't totally off their rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 our only hope is some unforeseen trend with the gulf short wave... i would hope for stronger and slower, so the main system in the midwest can catch it in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Its over... I cancelled my flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I can't help but laugh at how silly my job is Looks like we will not be needing any temporary moderators . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 much precip get back into va nc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 These model solutions are so erratic it's hilarious (in a very annoying way) but at the same time shows the complexity of this event. We can't buy two model runs in a row with similar outputs, which also tells me it's not time to give up on this just yet. At least not until we have a full cycle of similar solutions for God's sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 78 sub 1000 low 150-200 miles ese of bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Less than 0.1 on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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