December 19-20 Talking Points - Part 3

[jm1220]

thoughts on tonight's Euro?

I literally can't imagine it whiffs after two successive runs of trending further west.

Who knows? Last night every other model was east but it showed a major hit for Long Island and New England. Today at 12z it showed a crippling snowstorm for NYC northeast, but tonight we're seeing some of the modelling go back out to sea. If you put a gun to my head I would say it goes east, but not by too much. Maybe more toward last night's run but still a substantial event. But in reality, the Euro is known to have a mind of its own. It certainly didn't follow the UKMET's lead last night.

Again, I think the real key now is the shortwave that's now showing up on models that races out ahead of the developing low. We need it to be either nonexistent or very weak. The stronger it is, the more energy gets stolen from our storm, the flatter the trough/ridge, and obviously the whole storm becomes a strung out mess. The Euro didn't have this feature at all at 12z, and hopefully doesn't now.

[eduggs]

I finally took a look at the GGEM run and it still finds a way to hit most of NE pretty good, albeit with some delay. The consistent themes in the guidance despite the waffling have been a coastal NE hit and a deepening cutoff with stalled surface low.

[A-L-E-X]

Sometimes I miss the good old days like January 20,1978 when there was no worrying ahead of time and we wound up with  a surprise snowstorm.

Im wondering how this storm would have been handled back then.  It seems to have its own challenges, just like 2/6/10 did.  I would think, back then, it would have been thought of as an OTS storm and (if the Euro) solution works out, it would have been a great surprise.  The other storm from that time period I can think of that was a surprise hit for NYC (but not for areas further south) was PD1.  There's probably quite a few more of these shockers, but for every storm that gives us surprise snow, there's probably 5 that go the other way lol.

[A-L-E-X]

There are many problems with this storm developing to its fullest potential. To list a few:

1. No cold high pressure to the north.

2. No typically positive PNA. It only goes slightly positive very briefly.

3. The overall pattern really does not support such a major east coast snowstorm.

4. The really cold air that is in place right now will not be as cold as the storm approaches (or doesn't). Therefore any slight change in track closer to the coast and there would likely be precip-type issues in more locations than the models are now showing, especially without the afformentioned cold high to the north.

All that said, there are always exceptions and hybrid storms. Tonight and tomorrow's modelling runs are extremely important in beginning to develop a true trend. Up until now, since all the models have gone back & forth, no true trend has really been established. I suspect this ends up being an event somewhere about midway in between what GFS showed at 12Z today and what ECMWF had shown. That said, we still cannot dismiss any of the outlier ideas.

WX/PT

It does seem the full phase solutions and the way out to sea solutions are both way too extreme and the models are struggling trying to find a common ground.

[tombo82685]

alright guys, the euro has initialized..lets all say a prayer here we have a 12z or a compromise between 0 and 12z....hail mary full of grace the Lord is with theee......

[Allsnow]

00z euro out to 6hrs....it has begun

[tombo82685]

at hr 12, s/w looks weaker

[eduggs]

alright guys, the euro has initialized..lets all say a prayer here we have a 12z or a compromise between 0 and 12z....hail mary full of grace the Lord is with theee......

Something comparable to the GFS would be acceptable. Still close enough to keep interest. Fearing much worse.

[ptb127]

I want a 12z repeat.. but there are tons of pessimism in this thread and the other in the general forum as well.

[TwcMan]

at hr 12, s/w looks weaker

oh god

[tombo82685]

through hr 24 the s/w is weaker and its not as amplified

[Zir0b]

through hr 24 the s/w is weaker and its not as amplified

[Radders]

At 30 it is a little weaker, but not sure if is really material enough to impact things..

[tombo82685]

through hr 36 a good bit less amplified

[am19psu]

Ordinarily, I would delete this, but you win .gif of the night. kush would definitely appreciate this.

[tombo82685]

way less amplified at hr 42

[jm1220]

through hr 36 a good bit less amplified

If this run sucks, it's almost time to turn the lights out. There's still a window of opportunity tomorrow at 12z and maybe 0z to compensate back west, but the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.

[jlewis1111]

dammit

[am19psu]

This run is comically flat at T+48

[earthlight]

[bluewave]

Im wondering how this storm would have been handled back then. It seems to have its own challenges, just like 2/6/10 did. I would think, back then, it would have been thought of as an OTS storm and (if the Euro) solution works out, it would have been a great surprise. The other storm from that time period I can think of that was a surprise hit for NYC (but not for areas further south) was PD1. There's probably quite a few more of these shockers, but for every storm that gives us surprise snow, there's probably 5 that go the other way lol.

Well I can remember going to bed listening to NOAA Weather Radio forecasting rain heavy at times and waking up to over a foot.

January 87 was another great surprise that was supposed to go over to rain but worked out as a heavy wet thundersnow event..

Many of the forecasts that missed from the 70's and 80's were forecasted hits but turned OTS.I FEB 11,1980 was one

such storm.I actually flew over that one on my way back from MIami and there was some decent turbulence.

[MJO812]

We go from a HECS to a flat storm.

[ptb127]

If this run sucks, it's almost time to turn the lights out. There's still a window of opportunity tomorrow at 12z and maybe 0z to compensate back west, but the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.

I agree... I wish I didn't though.

[Rtd208]

I couldn't agree more, I will hold out for the 12z runs tomorrow but if it doesn't come back west I would say its time to put this threat to bed and move onto the next one. One thing is for certain, the models have really had a tough time with this one.

If this run sucks, it's almost time to turn the lights out. There's still a window of opportunity tomorrow at 12z and maybe 0z to compensate back west, but the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.

[Radders]

This run is comically flat at T+48

Agreed, the difference between 12Z and 0Z are quite major now.. Base of the trough is much more rounded, vs. the sharper 12Z trough.. Not good.

[A-L-E-X]

If this run sucks, it's almost time to turn the lights out. There's still a window of opportunity tomorrow at 12z and maybe 0z to compensate back west, but the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.

Yeah, this run was supposed to be key for us.  The other models seem to have trended slightly west of their previous runs but not enough to cause a significant impact for us yet.  That trend would need to continue.  The best thing to do is not have any expectations-- positive or negative-- and just let things play out.  I know that's kind of hard to do lol.  But its absolutely vital if you want to maintain your sanity

[NJHurricane]

If this run sucks, it's almost time to turn the lights out. There's still a window of opportunity tomorrow at 12z and maybe 0z to compensate back west, but the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.

combined with GGEM not good...now the GFS/NAM look like they were just behind the trends instead of falling into place. Will be interested to see if HPC backs off in their early disco packages...and if not what their justification would be for holding the rather bullish line they have had today.

[tombo82685]

this is absolutely shocking how different this is from 12z at h5, unbelievable

[jlewis1111]

its funny we always say well will wait til the 12z runs tomorrow. I think its game set match on this storm

[A-L-E-X]

Agreed, the difference between 12Z and 0Z are quite major now.. Base of the trough is much more rounded, vs. the sharper 12Z trough.. Not good.

Well, even ignoring the 12z run today, it looks like the Euro has even trended eastward from its 0z run 24 hours ago.