SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GGEM is even bad for SNE. Way out in right field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 maybe the nam/gfs will play catch up to the ukmet/ggem tomorrow at 12z :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 INterestingly enough, the GGEM did the same thing that the GFS and the NAM did with the "two lows." Perhaps that is convective feedback, though it's hard to tell on these black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GGEM is ridiculously far east now...this just gets better and better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GGEM has that odd second low like the NAM and GFS have, except it's stronger on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GGEM ouch. I stayed up almost an hour to see that......ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 what is the more reliable model other than the euro at this point- gfs,nam,ukmet? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GGEM has that odd second low like the NAM and GFS have, except it's stronger on the GGEM. Sounds like that gives credence to tornadojay's theory about the s/w coming out of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GGEM is ridiculously far east now...this just gets better and better this has been one heck of a ride. The ukie , ggem way out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Since they are all in general agreement, it really doesn't matter much. If everyone was posting clown maps from the NAM tonight, we could have all gone to sleep happy. The prospects of a hit are extremely low now, unless we wake up to find that the HCP tossed out the entire 00Z model suite simply because it doesn't make sense synoptically. what is the more reliable model other than the euro at this point- gfs,nam,ukmet? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 what is the more reliable model other than the euro at this point- gfs,nam,ukmet? Rossi GFS and UKM are roughly equally reliable after the Euro. GEM is next. NAM is last at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Stronger vort east of Florida 0z as opposed to 12z. 12z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GGEM is ridiculously far east now...this just gets better and better Not for anything, but the GGEM has been WILDLY inconsistent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The Euro might be Dr.NO tonight and seal the deal. If the shortwave has de-amplified that much on the GGEM/UKMET, it is hard to argue against the newer 0z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Here's what we've got to look for on the upcoming Euro run IMO. Some subtle but very KEY differences. Notice the black circled area, more ridging in the Plains w/ the 12z ecmwf solution versus than 00z GFS. The short wave itself amplfies further south, and one can see the 540 height line being "captured" into the H5 low while the 00z GFS has no such thing. Wave is pretty flat and disconnected. Consequently, heights are backed about 100-150 miles further west on the Euro vs the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If that vort is real, it robs our developing storm of its energy and causes the whole thing to collapse/fail. I still think it's probably overdone and suffering from feedback issues, but multiple foreign models developing it now definitely concerns me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 As with most storms this year, for this threat we've been mostly on the outside looking in... hoping for trends and anything positive to hang our hats on. The modeled hits have been few and far between... and always quickly replaced by ugly misses. More times than not when this is the case and you look back after the fact, you realize that the outcome was pretty apparent all along. Clearly the NAM and GFS are pretty close... even the UK isn't hopeless. We've come back from bigger deficits before. But none of these are good runs, at the surface or any level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not for anything, but the GGEM has been WILDLY inconsistent! only the ukmet has been fairly consistent the last 2 days with its miss. gfs ensembles - if theyre east - not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It seems like these mysterious vorts are popping up out of nowhere in these runs. I find it hard to believe it's convective feedback because EVERY model has it. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think the models might be responding to that shortwave that passes through Florida at the same time the main wave comes through the mid atlantic. I'm wondering if that is causing the elongation of low pressure off the atlantic coast.. Thoughts, anyone??? I think Jay might be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 As with most storms this year, for this threat we've been mostly on the outside looking in... hoping for trends and anything positive to hang our hats on. The modeled hits have been few and far between... and always quickly replaced by ugly misses. More times than not when this is the case and you look back after the fact, you realize that the outcome was pretty apparent all along. Clearly the NAM and GFS are pretty close... even the UK isn't hopeless. We've come back from bigger deficits before. But none of these are good runs, at the surface or any level. Disagree with the last...GFS is not bad this run except at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 only the ukmet has been fairly consistent the last 2 days with its miss. gfs ensembles - if theyre east - not good. They're east. Hit on ORF, then misses the rest of VA/PA/NJ and hits Long Island and E Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro will stay west, I predict, but maybe a little east of before. So many shifts that there's no reason to think this won't remain a bumpy ride. I say well east, but close enough to give SNE a moderate event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 They're east. Hit on ORF, then misses the rest of VA/PA/NJ and hits Long Island and E Mass. West of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 They're east. Hit on ORF, then misses the rest of VA/PA/NJ and hits Long Island and E Mass. Darn 12z ecm gave us 10 hours, now back to where we were and its not good unless youre on cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Heard on the AccuWX forums that the GFS ensembles look similar to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GFS ensembles are a bit more amplified than 18z--but don't do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 They're east. Hit on ORF, then misses the rest of VA/PA/NJ and hits Long Island and E Mass. At least that's well west of 18z. (though obviously worse than 12z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sorry, I had to take a break from the SNE thread. Hearing all of these people talk about possible snow is killing me knowing im just missing out on the western fringe. 22" in the last 18 months, when my winter average is 65". yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The prospects of a hit are extremely low now, unless we wake up to find that the HCP tossed out the entire 00Z model suite simply because it doesn't make sense synoptically. Wouldn't matter. Model consensus slightly outperforms HPC. Besides, it's difficult for a model to violate the very physics it's programmed with. Only thing that will save us is if the model consensus flips back in our favor. And the flipping is not over to be sure... although the extent will likely dampen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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