am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 12z Euro is the only model that shows the shortwave digging that far to the south and the result was the "bomb" scenario for everyone. The trend has been for all the other models to show the shortwave being less amplfied and therefore the storm doesn't get going until its north of 40N. Did you actually look at the 0z NAM and 0z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 12z Euro is the only model that shows the shortwave digging that far to the south and the result was the "bomb" scenario for everyone. The trend has been for all the other models to show the shortwave being less amplfied and therefore the storm doesn't get going until its north of 40N. I think the 0Z EURO will be key, and if it shifts further east (which I think it will) it's time to put this one to rest.... The GGEM at 12z was also a major hit from the NJ Turnpike east, and I can just about guarantee that the NAM/GFS tonight would've been major hits had the weird vortmaxes not appeared to the east of the storm over the ocean. Even with that robbing the main storm, they came west from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 12z Euro is the only model that shows the shortwave digging that far to the south and the result was the "bomb" scenario for everyone. The trend has been for all the other models to show the shortwave being less amplfied and therefore the storm doesn't get going until its north of 40N. I think the 0Z EURO will be key, and if it shifts further east (which I think it will) it's time to put this one to rest.... I just feel you would be the same guy saying forget it if the gfs had it and the euro did not inside 72 hrs......the gfs trended alot towards the euro and did a complete 180 from the 18z run. Dont forget the gfs seems to be following the euro on this, just a run or two behind....00z last night on the euro looks alot like the 00zgfs tonight...with two days to go im feeling pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I remember when the 6z NAM at around 30-36 hours out went out to sea, and everyone committed suicide. I remember that run, and it concerned me also, but at that point it was by itself and everything else was slamming us. The UKMET is concerning somewhat, but it can be inconsistent at times. The Euro as usual will decide. GGEM is important also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Although the GFS trended in the right direction, those saying it was identical to the Euro are making incorrect assumptions. It's not really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 12z Euro is the only model that shows the shortwave digging that far to the south and the result was the "bomb" scenario for everyone. The trend has been for all the other models to show the shortwave being less amplfied and therefore the storm doesn't get going until its north of 40N. I think the 0Z EURO will be key, and if it shifts further east (which I think it will) it's time to put this one to rest.... That has not been the trend, the 0z runs were more amplified, the tilt of the trough was steeper, and the 500 appearance was much improved. The only thing that wasn't as good was the surface depiction, maybe like some are saying it is because the models are having difficulty with multiple LP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Although the GFS trended in the right direction, those saying it was identical to the Euro are making incorrect assumptions. It's not really close. Is it similiar to the 00z run last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I agree with you about it not being close, but John, that map you posted screams of a coastal crawler.. I am shocked at the surface depiction, seriously. Although the GFS trended in the right direction, those saying it was identical to the Euro are making incorrect assumptions. It's not really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GFS was so much more amplified at 00z compared to the 18z run, it was actually ridiculous to watch. The model literally is within an hour or two of bringing the surface low up the coast exactly like the 12z ECMWF. If you compare the two images below (first image 18z, second image 00z), you can see the height field shifting much more favorably and the shortwave is much more amplified. I am totally shocked that this run didn't show a major hit--but there's nothing we can do about that. Significant trend towards the Euro aloft, though. That's all we can say for now. 18z http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_18z/f60.gif 00z http://www.meteo.psu.../AVN_0z/f54.gif The EC had a much stronger s/w with a sharper look at h5 on day 3 than any other model run today. Pronounced vortmax in the Carolinas with height contours paralleling the east coast. Thus the surface low was tucked closer to the mid-atlantic coast initially and the mid-levels cut off much earlier. The GFS charts are comparatively lukewarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I remember that run, and it concerned me also, but at that point it was by itself and everything else was slamming us. The UKMET is concerning somewhat, but it can be inconsistent at times. The Euro as usual will decide. GGEM is important also. Actually, IIRC, not everything was slamming us when that happened. The GFS had just went back to an OTS solution, and the Euro wasn't as good, either. I do remember there being an obvious convective feedback issue on that run of the 6z NAM. The 6z GFS came in, and while it was better, it still wasn't great; but when I saw that the GFS run at 6z had been making a lot of improvements, I went to bed happy. I then woke up the next day to incredible 12z runs. It just goes to show much things can change in so little time. We are still 66-72 hours out, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It'll be interesting what the ensembles have to say.. The ukie was a let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Although the GFS trended in the right direction, those saying it was identical to the Euro are making incorrect assumptions. It's not really close. Exactly my point John, look at where the digging of the shortwave stops, its over NC. The Euro today was much deeper (over GA), and the result was the storm was able to close off at H5 much quicker..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Is it similiar to the 00z run last night? The Euro was a bit less amplified at 00z last night than the GFS at 00z tonight, actually, at least at 48 hours tonight on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Overall so far a bit of an east trend compared to 12z GFS so far. But good against the 18z and anytime you're within 50 - 100 miles with 3 days to go on the GFS, its not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 12z Euro is the only model that shows the shortwave digging that far to the south and the result was the "bomb" scenario for everyone. The trend has been for all the other models to show the shortwave being less amplfied and therefore the storm doesn't get going until its north of 40N. I think the 0Z EURO will be key, and if it shifts further east (which I think it will) it's time to put this one to rest.... I agree with this. The 12z Euro was basically on its own, even compared to a weighted average of its recent operational and ensemble runs. I thought we had some consensus building with the rest of the 12z guidance, but 18z and now 0z has spoiled that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GGEM is out to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 GGEM coming in way less amplified. Ouch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GGEM is out to 12.. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_012.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GGEM is out to 12 Make that 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I have the GGEM out to 48 hours and it's de-amplified majorly since 12z. Not a good trend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 The shortwave amplification on the GGEM at 12z was definitely way off, from what we can see now..it seems like there was some bad sampling because that's a huge correction for a 48 hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The shortwave amplification on the GGEM at 12z was definitely way off, from what we can see now..it seems like there was some bad sampling because that's a huge correction for a 48 hour forecast. Perhaps the 12z sampling really wasn't ashore yet, and now that the 0z data is ashore, it's picking up on these bad (but real) trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just to clarify, you are suggesting bad sampling for the current run or for the 12z run.... ? thanks in advance. The shortwave amplification on the GGEM at 12z was definitely way off, from what we can see now..it seems like there was some bad sampling because that's a huge correction for a 48 hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The shortwave amplification on the GGEM at 12z was definitely way off, from what we can see now..it seems like there was some bad sampling because that's a huge correction for a 48 hour forecast. Guess the RGEM and the Ukie were onto something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This hobby can't make one go clinically insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just to clarify, you are suggesting bad sampling for the current run or for the 12z run.... ? thanks in advance. It's night and day between the 12z run and the 00z run in regards to the shortwave. The 00z run had a much better data ingestion so I would have to believe the 12z runs were way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Perhaps the 12z sampling really wasn't ashore yet, and now that the 0z data is ashore, it's picking up on these bad (but real) trends. good point. makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The shortwave amplification on the GGEM at 12z was definitely way off, from what we can see now..it seems like there was some bad sampling because that's a huge correction for a 48 hour forecast. Then I guess it's safe to say the EURO got bad data too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Then I guess it's safe to say the EURO got bad data too? I wouldn't call it bad data...maybe a lack of data. Something changed dramatically (again, what a surprise) on the globals tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Definitely not what I want to see. Although I'm still curious as to why the NAM and GFS improved so much at 500mb but the UKMET and GGEM seem to be crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.